Chart: Commercial Real Estate Quarterly Price Index Moves, Calculated Standard Deviation, Empirical Rule Observations Utilizing FRED Data

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Interest Rates and Price Indexes; Commercial Real Estate Price Index, Level [BOGZ1FL075035503Q], index levels retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGZ1FL075035503Q, January 16, 2023.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Interest Rates and Price Indexes; Commercial Real Estate Price Index, Level [BOGZ1FL075035503Q], index levels retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Series BOGZ1FL075035503Q, January 16, 2023.The chart herein shows the quarterly change of the Commercial Real Estate Price Index from the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System as of January 17, 2023. The data set utilized for this chart is posted below.

Having a published data set allows for calculation of the standard deviation of these returns, noted above as 2.55%. Since these are quarterly, one would divide that by the square root of 4 to arrive at the annualized standard deviation of 5.1%. The quarterly return of 1.06% would be annualized by compounding the return to arrive at an annualized rate of 4.30%, with the compounding adding just a bit more return than if multiplied by 4.

Commercial Real Estate Price Index Summary Calculations

Average Quarterly Change 1.06%
Annualized Change 4.30%
Quarterly Standard Deviation 2.55%
Annualized SD 5.10%

These changes are for the price index only, whereas owners of commercial real estate generally earn income. That rate varies over time, and there is no such corresponding data set over time of which I am aware.  For approximation purposes, however, we’ll assume a 5% capitalization rate for all periods in order to run some empirical rule calculations.

“Risk means more things can happen than will happen.”

~ Elroy Dimson

Empirical Rule Calculations

Price Change Total Return
Annualized Change 4.30% 4.30%
Assumed Cap Rate n/a 5.00%
Average Total Return n/a 9.30%
68% of the time (1 SD) -0.80% to 9.39% 4.20% to 14.39%
95% of the time (2 SD) -5.89% to 14.49% -0.89% to 19.49%
99.7% of the time (3 SD) -10.99% to 19.58% -5.99% to 24.58%

Going by this set of data, it would appear the only about once every 666 years would the total return be worse than -10.99% (1 / [1-99.7%] x 50%). That sounds pretty good, but it also doesn’t seem quite right. Allow me to consider some potential faults with this.

First, I have no idea what goes into this index. It is an index of the Fed. One can assume it is highly diversified, as very few investors are. If you are loaded up on retail properties in Wynwood, what happens nationally is only minimally applicable. Additionally, many investors carry debt, and debt magnifies returns. Finally, this does not feel right. I think the standard deviation feels a bit higher than 5.1%. In prior post, Applying the Black & Scholes Option Pricing Model to Commercial Real Estate Option Pricing, I gave a set of reasons for assuming standard deviation as 6.5%. I still feel more comfortable with that level, frankly. What this Fed data has done for me is to get more comfortable that 6.5% itself is not substantially low, and might even be a touch high. Thank you, FRED.

A final note I’d make about this is that an investor, before allowing this to provide comfort regarding assumed risk, should look at the -30.22% index price move for the year of 2009. That more than 3 SD move deviates considerably from the rest of the dataset. That begs the question of whether that is a black swan type event, i.e. an aberration, if there is something amiss with that 2009 price index data, or if there is something about this 1952 to 2022 period that, aside from 2009, was preternaturally steady for commercial real estate prices (or some combination thereof).  My conclusion is that Yogi Berra had it right long ago when he quipped; “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Commercial Real Estate Price Index Level Data:

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Interest Rates and Price Indexes; Commercial Real Estate Price Index, Level [BOGZ1FL075035503Q], index levels retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Series BOGZ1FL075035503Q, January 16, 2023.The chart herein shows the quarterly change of the Commercial Real Estate Price Index from the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System as of January 17, 2023.

Period Index Level Quarterly Change
Q1 1952 20251
Q2 1952 20187 -0.32%
Q3 1952 20137 -0.25%
Q4 1952 20187 0.25%
Q1 1953 20238 0.25%
Q2 1953 20529 1.44%
Q3 1953 20807 1.35%
Q4 1953 20769 -0.18%
Q1 1954 20478 -1.40%
Q2 1954 20276 -0.99%
Q3 1954 20276 0.00%
Q4 1954 20301 0.12%
Q1 1955 20352 0.25%
Q2 1955 20529 0.87%
Q3 1955 20807 1.35%
Q4 1955 21275 2.25%
Q1 1956 22224 4.46%
Q2 1956 22148 -0.34%
Q3 1956 22742 2.68%
Q4 1956 22957 0.95%
Q1 1957 23185 0.99%
Q2 1957 23489 1.31%
Q3 1957 23640 0.64%
Q4 1957 23628 -0.05%
Q1 1958 23071 -2.36%
Q2 1958 23223 0.66%
Q3 1958 23312 0.38%
Q4 1958 23375 0.27%
Q1 1959 23223 -0.65%
Q2 1959 23362 0.60%
Q3 1959 23451 0.38%
Q4 1959 23463 0.05%
Q1 1960 23552 0.38%
Q2 1960 23413 -0.59%
Q3 1960 23299 -0.49%
Q4 1960 23135 -0.70%
Q1 1961 23135 0.00%
Q2 1961 23185 0.22%
Q3 1961 23210 0.11%
Q4 1961 23299 0.38%
Q1 1962 23337 0.16%
Q2 1962 23425 0.38%
Q3 1962 23387 -0.16%
Q4 1962 23463 0.32%
Q1 1963 23539 0.32%
Q2 1963 23590 0.22%
Q3 1963 23653 0.27%
Q4 1963 23678 0.11%
Q1 1964 23653 -0.11%
Q2 1964 23906 1.07%
Q3 1964 23944 0.16%
Q4 1964 24323 1.58%
Q1 1965 24361 0.16%
Q2 1965 24539 0.73%
Q3 1965 24602 0.26%
Q4 1965 25095 2.00%
Q1 1966 25019 -0.30%
Q2 1966 25576 2.23%
Q3 1966 25614 0.15%
Q4 1966 25943 1.28%
Q1 1967 26056 0.44%
Q2 1967 26196 0.54%
Q3 1967 26373 0.68%
Q4 1967 26739 1.39%
Q1 1968 27106 1.37%
Q2 1968 27460 1.31%
Q3 1968 27688 0.83%
Q4 1968 28384 2.51%
Q1 1969 28788 1.42%
Q2 1969 29256 1.63%
Q3 1969 29649 1.34%
Q4 1969 30218 1.92%
Q1 1970 30521 1.00%
Q2 1970 31470 3.11%
Q3 1970 31559 0.28%
Q4 1970 32065 1.60%
Q1 1971 32748 2.13%
Q2 1971 33494 2.28%
Q3 1971 34227 2.19%
Q4 1971 34835 1.78%
Q1 1972 35518 1.96%
Q2 1972 35960 1.24%
Q3 1972 36454 1.37%
Q4 1972 37162 1.94%
Q1 1973 37706 1.46%
Q2 1973 38515 2.15%
Q3 1973 39578 2.76%
Q4 1973 40552 2.46%
Q1 1974 41627 2.65%
Q2 1974 43436 4.35%
Q3 1974 45447 4.63%
Q4 1974 47357 4.20%
Q1 1975 48736 2.91%
Q2 1975 49621 1.82%
Q3 1975 50038 0.84%
Q4 1975 50633 1.19%
Q1 1976 50924 0.57%
Q2 1976 51847 1.81%
Q3 1976 52606 1.46%
Q4 1976 53352 1.42%
Q1 1977 55009 3.11%
Q2 1977 56009 1.82%
Q3 1977 57261 2.24%
Q4 1977 58450 2.08%
Q1 1978 59715 2.16%
Q2 1978 61384 2.79%
Q3 1978 62915 2.49%
Q4 1978 64635 2.73%
Q1 1979 66456 2.82%
Q2 1979 68468 3.03%
Q3 1979 70593 3.10%
Q4 1979 72098 2.13%
Q1 1980 73350 1.74%
Q2 1980 74855 2.05%
Q3 1980 76436 2.11%
Q4 1980 78802 3.10%
Q1 1981 82255 4.38%
Q2 1981 85139 3.51%
Q3 1981 87580 2.87%
Q4 1981 90628 3.48%
Q1 1982 92563 2.14%
Q2 1982 93512 1.03%
Q3 1982 93778 0.28%
Q4 1982 93322 -0.49%
Q1 1983 91703 -1.73%
Q2 1983 90742 -1.05%
Q3 1983 90527 -0.24%
Q4 1983 90388 -0.15%
Q1 1984 90502 0.13%
Q2 1984 91400 0.99%
Q3 1984 91969 0.62%
Q4 1984 92513 0.59%
Q1 1985 93196 0.74%
Q2 1985 93423 0.24%
Q3 1985 93917 0.53%
Q4 1985 92263 -1.76%
Q1 1986 94072 1.96%
Q2 1986 95917 1.96%
Q3 1986 97275 1.42%
Q4 1986 98651 1.41%
Q1 1987 100624 2.00%
Q2 1987 102637 2.00%
Q3 1987 103197 0.55%
Q4 1987 103761 0.55%
Q1 1988 104925 1.12%
Q2 1988 106102 1.12%
Q3 1988 106366 0.25%
Q4 1988 106630 0.25%
Q1 1989 107602 0.91%
Q2 1989 108583 0.91%
Q3 1989 108981 0.37%
Q4 1989 109380 0.37%
Q1 1990 108414 -0.88%
Q2 1990 107456 -0.88%
Q3 1990 107014 -0.41%
Q4 1990 106574 -0.41%
Q1 1991 105565 -0.95%
Q2 1991 104565 -0.95%
Q3 1991 101038 -3.37%
Q4 1991 97629 -3.37%
Q1 1992 95396 -2.29%
Q2 1992 93214 -2.29%
Q3 1992 90705 -2.69%
Q4 1992 88264 -2.69%
Q1 1993 87385 -1.00%
Q2 1993 86514 -1.00%
Q3 1993 86432 -0.09%
Q4 1993 86351 -0.09%
Q1 1994 87355 1.16%
Q2 1994 88371 1.16%
Q3 1994 89332 1.09%
Q4 1994 90361 1.15%
Q1 1995 90609 0.27%
Q2 1995 90517 -0.10%
Q3 1995 91234 0.79%
Q4 1995 92103 0.95%
Q1 1996 92508 0.44%
Q2 1996 92706 0.21%
Q3 1996 92062 -0.69%
Q4 1996 97578 5.99%
Q1 1997 105208 7.82%
Q2 1997 105076 -0.13%
Q3 1997 108845 3.59%
Q4 1997 118284 8.67%
Q1 1998 120779 2.11%
Q2 1998 125194 3.66%
Q3 1998 126035 0.67%
Q4 1998 128231 1.74%
Q1 1999 124173 -3.16%
Q2 1999 124148 -0.02%
Q3 1999 129608 4.40%
Q4 1999 131754 1.66%
Q1 2000 124986 -5.14%
Q2 2000 134097 7.29%
Q3 2000 143235 6.81%
Q4 2000 145523 1.60%
Q1 2001 144348 -0.81%
Q2 2001 144419 0.05%
Q3 2001 146031 1.12%
Q4 2001 138637 -5.06%
Q1 2002 142534 2.81%
Q2 2002 141553 -0.69%
Q3 2002 143702 1.52%
Q4 2002 149685 4.16%
Q1 2003 155085 3.61%
Q2 2003 153646 -0.93%
Q3 2003 149486 -2.71%
Q4 2003 151562 1.39%
Q1 2004 160823 6.11%
Q2 2004 168963 5.06%
Q3 2004 180109 6.60%
Q4 2004 179950 -0.09%
Q1 2005 185359 3.01%
Q2 2005 188982 1.95%
Q3 2005 197615 4.57%
Q4 2005 204345 3.41%
Q1 2006 210633 3.08%
Q2 2006 219424 4.17%
Q3 2006 224992 2.54%
Q4 2006 229588 2.04%
Q1 2007 236791 3.14%
Q2 2007 246337 4.03%
Q3 2007 251033 1.91%
Q4 2007 249708 -0.53%
Q1 2008 229637 -8.04%
Q2 2008 233844 1.83%
Q3 2008 227650 -2.65%
Q4 2008 221291 -2.79%
Q1 2009 208222 -5.91%
Q2 2009 170622 -18.06%
Q3 2009 165721 -2.87%
Q4 2009 154418 -6.82%
Q1 2010 159893 3.55%
Q2 2010 172414 7.83%
Q3 2010 170781 -0.95%
Q4 2010 171868 0.64%
Q1 2011 178250 3.71%
Q2 2011 174805 -1.93%
Q3 2011 172509 -1.31%
Q4 2011 182451 5.76%
Q1 2012 182977 0.29%
Q2 2012 182262 -0.39%
Q3 2012 185364 1.70%
Q4 2012 188270 1.57%
Q1 2013 191017 1.46%
Q2 2013 202087 5.80%
Q3 2013 213128 5.46%
Q4 2013 212451 -0.32%
Q1 2014 209591 -1.35%
Q2 2014 219049 4.51%
Q3 2014 223174 1.88%
Q4 2014 230717 3.38%
Q1 2015 241231 4.56%
Q2 2015 246152 2.04%
Q3 2015 246392 0.10%
Q4 2015 244138 -0.91%
Q1 2016 239814 -1.77%
Q2 2016 248433 3.59%
Q3 2016 256867 3.39%
Q4 2016 257315 0.17%
Q1 2017 252540 -1.86%
Q2 2017 266115 5.38%
Q3 2017 268458 0.88%
Q4 2017 272567 1.53%
Q1 2018 274951 0.87%
Q2 2018 275509 0.20%
Q3 2018 276359 0.31%
Q4 2018 272775 -1.30%
Q1 2019 285385 4.62%
Q2 2019 299015 4.78%
Q3 2019 296344 -0.89%
Q4 2019 294000 -0.79%
Q1 2020 298895 1.66%
Q2 2020 295352 -1.19%
Q3 2020 300713 1.82%
Q4 2020 312942 4.07%
Q1 2021 314009 0.34%
Q2 2021 322439 2.68%
Q3 2021 345789 7.24%
Q4 2021 358385 3.64%
Q1 2022 349813 -2.39%
Q2 2022 348985 -0.24%
Q3 2022 358378 2.69%

~

Don’t rely on this in any way to make investment decisions. These are just observations, and may be incorrect. On that note, if you find an error in the calculations, logic, or assumptions, contact me and let me know!

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January 18, 2023

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Downtown 1st, a 58-story tower, now has a “modern tropical” interior, with leasing underway, according to the project’s Instagram page. It is the tallest apartment building ever by developer Melo Group. The tower broke ground with test piling in March 2021, with top off taking place in April 2022. The project includes 560 market-rate rental apartments, 10,000 sf…

Mindspace Signs for 32 KSF Miami Coworking Space

Mindspace, an international boutique flex space provider, has unveiled plans for a new, 31,192-square-foot coworking space in downtown Miami. The company has signed a 10-year lease at 100 N. Biscayne Blvd., planning to occupy three floors at the 30-story tower. RFR Realty owns the 310,000-square-foot Class A office property, after an $81.1 million acquisition in January…

Harbert Management drops $66M for Broward warehouse complexes

Harbert Management Corporation paid $65.8 million for a Broward County industrial park. An affiliate of the Birmingham, Ala.-based investment management firm acquired Lauderdale Lakes Industrial Flex Park, a collection of 11 small-bay warehouses spanning nearly 360,000 square feet completed in 1973, records and Vizzda show. The…

Related Group joins $1B-plus Bahia Mar project in Fort Lauderdale

Jorge Pérez’s Related Group joined the development team of the planned Bahia Mar project in Fort Lauderdale, as the Miami-based firm continues expanding throughout South Florida. Related entered into a joint venture with Jimmy Tate’s Tate Capital and Sergio Rok’s Rok Enterprises to redevelop the major mixed-use project at a site that is home to the Fort Lauderdale…

JV drops $40M for portfolio of aging Palm Beach County rentals

A partnership between New York and Toronto-based companies is betting on aging apartment complexes in Palm Beach County. North Point Management and Medallion Corporation bought five garden-style communities consisting of a total of 433 units in unincorporated parts of the county for $40.1 million, according to records…

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January 18, 2023

Charts: Miami-Dade Commercial Real Estate Sales vs. Average, and vs. 5-Year Treasury, Five Years Ending December 2022

Miami-Dade Commercial Property Sales, Percent of Avg, Grouped by Year: January 2018 to December 2022 Commercial MLS Miami Association of Realtors, Property Types Land-Commercial/Business/Agricultural/Industrial, Commercial/Industrial, within Miami-Dade County, Price $1,000,000+, Calculated from 1,371 Listings, Dataset Obtained 1/10/23

January 2018 to December 2022 Commercial MLS Miami Association of Realtors, Property Types Land-Commercial/Business/Agricultural/Industrial, Commercial/Industrial, within Miami-Dade County, Price $1,000,000+, Calculated from 1,371 Listings, Dataset Obtained 1/10/23

In the chart above, the number of closed sales as a percentage of the five year average is plotted by month, grouped by year; the dataset is displayed just below. The most striking element is the year end surge of 2021, with closed sales exceeded 250% of the average. The next most striking thing is perhaps the surge in the first half of 2022, which is of course really a continuance of late 2021. The third most striking thing is the plunge from elevated levels only five months prior to ones one might refer to as more normal at year end 2022, with closed sales at 83.2% of the average for the prior five years, down from 254% in December 2021 and 153% as late as July 2021.

Miami-Dade Commercial Property Sales Percent of Average vs. 5-Year US Treasury Yield: January 2018 to December 2022 Commercial MLS Miami Association of Realtors, Property Types Land-Commercial/Business/Agricultural/Industrial, Commercial/Industrial, within Miami-Dade County, Price $1,000,000+, Calculated from 1,371 Listings, Retrieved 1/10/23 | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis [DGS5], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 9, 2023.

January 2018 to December 2022 Commercial MLS Miami Association of Realtors, Property Types Land-Commercial/Business/Agricultural/Industrial, Commercial/Industrial, within Miami-Dade County, Price $1,000,000+, Calculated from 1,371 Listings, Retrieved 1/10/23 | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis [DGS5], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 9, 2023.

The second chart is of the same data as in the prior chart, but plotted over the entire period, i.e. not grouped by year, and plotted against the rocket fuel for this surge, interest rates, here represented by 5-year US Treasury yields. The surge from around Q2 2021 through Q2 2022 is more evident when viewed this way. Also standing out is the negative correlation between interest rates and commercial property sales, albeit perhaps with a slight lag. What is lost when viewed this way is the year over year, i.e. season versus season, and particularly December versus December, comparison.

Also interesting to note is that that this is the number of closed sales as a percentage of the five year average, with that average itself elevated by the results during the sales surge. This creates what I’ll call a denominator effect, with percentages outside of the surge appearing weak when in truth they’re probably just more normal. As an illustration of this denominator effect, the peak sales of December 2021 were 370% of the average from 2018 to 2020 vs. 254% of the entire five year period. Similarly, the 48.1% trough of October 2021 improves to 70.1% when considered versus this 2018 to 2020 period.

It is important to note that this data is not perfect. First, this only represent sales that were recorded in the Miami Association of Realtors Commercial MLS.  Regardless, given that this is apples to apples, I believe it is reasonably representative of general trends over time. Also, this is only for sales of properties over $1M.Thus, changes in overall market pricing would affect the numbers. In this case, in what has been a rising market, sales in later years are likely a bit elevated vs. prior years simply because rising prices pushed sales above this threshold on properties than in prior periods would have traded below it. Given the rise of prices over the past five years, there is surely some such effect, particularly when considering 2022 vs. 2018. However, such an effect would likely not be enormous, and would be more at that extreme of the end of the five years vs. the beginning. The aforementioned denominator effect isn’t a data flaw, but could be seen as somewhat of a distortion of ratios. The bottom line, with all of this, as you view these charts, think about the variables, and consider that these charts are perhaps insightful, but (again) not perfect.

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January 11, 2023

Miami Commercial Real Estate News January 11, 2023: Supertall Planned for Brickell Key; Hialeah Industrial Dev Site Trades for $111M, West Miami-Dade Data Center Dev Site for $14M; More…

Metronomic loses Coconut Grove project in foreclosure sale

Developer Metronomic lost its completed Coconut Grove apartment project in a foreclosure sale, adding to its financial woes of recent years. Wilmington Trust, the largest creditor on GroveHaus, sold the 10-unit building at 3265 Bird Avenue for $8.1 million in a foreclosure sale to Bolonki LLC, an entity led by Norberto Roman and Julia Roman, according to…

EdgeConneX buys dev site for data center in Doral

EdgeConneX is betting on the data center real estate market. The firm wants to build a nearly 173,000-square-foot facility on land it purchased at the Beacon Station industrial park in west Miami-Dade County, according to records. An entity led by Juan Fayen and Juan Ramos sold the 6.3-acre site for $13.7 million. The data center…

Centennial plans 190 affordable rentals in Florida City

As South Florida’s ever-rising rents continue to price out apartment dwellers, Centennial Management is betting on affordable housing in Florida City. The Miami Lakes-based firm plans the 190-unit Cordova Estates townhouse rental complex south… The seven-building community is planned for a 12.2-acre site that includes properties at 321 and 329 East Davis Parkway.

506-Unit Brickell Apartment Tower Set To Break Ground This Month

Related Group has obtained a $164 million construction loan for 444 Brickell Tower II and will begin construction this month, the developer told Commercial Observer. Construction financing for the adjacent 75-story Baccarat tower is also imminent, the developer said. 444 Brickell Tower II will include 506 apartments in a 44-story tower. Construction permits have already…

Commissioners Move Forward With Expedited Metrorail To Hard Rock Stadium

Miami-Dade commissioners voted yesterday to expedite design of the North Corridor heavy rail system to Hard Rock Stadium. At its January 9 meeting, the county’s Transportation, Mobility and Planning Committee voted 9-0 to increase funding to infrastructure design firm HNTB by $44 million, to a total of $49.5 million for the project. The North Corridor of the SMART Program…

Residential Building With 427 Units Planned Near Metromover Station

A utilities deal has just been signed that will allow a residential building to be built a few blocks north of the Signature Bridge at 1550 NE Miami Place. The agreement between Miami-Dade’s Water & Sewer Department and CL RE 15 MIA LLC was recorded on December 28, 2022. A total of 427 apartments are planned, the agreement states. Jennifer Bernell signed on behalf…

Crypto Firm FTX’s Miami Office Lease Deals Axed in Bankruptcy Court

Sam Bankman-Fried’s cryptocurrency exchange FTX was gearing up to move its headquarters to Miami less than two weeks before the company’s collapse late last year. On October 26, West Realm Shires, operator of FTX’s U.S. exchange, executed a lease for office space in a Brickell Avenue commercial skyscraper with sprawling views of Biscayne Bay — a deal that would’ve made the…

Wall Of Glass Now Rising At Miami World Tower 1

If you like glass, you’ll love the new 53-story Miami World Tower 1 now rising at Miami Worldcenter. Miami World Tower 1 is planned to rise 579 feet, which would make it the second tallest rental building in the city. The first Miami World Tower is planned to include 565 apartments, 3,000 square feet of full service restaurant, and 401 parking spaces. NBWW the architect…

New Year, Same Story: Another Big Law Firm Opening First Miami Office

Another of the 100 largest U.S. law firms is following its peers to Miami. Boston-based law firm Mintz, Levin, Cohn, Ferris, Glovsky and Popeo is opening a new office in Miami, it announced Tuesday. The outpost will be its first in South Florida and seventh in the U.S. The firm, with specialties in energy and sustainability, private equity, life sciences, technology, financial…

Atlantic | Pacific Breaks Ground on 616-Unit Miami Community

Atlantic Station. Image courtesy of Atlantic | Pacific Cos. Atlantic | Pacific Cos. has broken ground on Atlantic Station, a 616-unit, mixed-income community in Miami that will include 360 workforce housing apartments. Previously known as Block 45, the project is considered the largest single-phase transit-oriented development to ever get underway in Miami-Dade County.

Atlantic Pacific Cos. Breaks Ground on 616-Unit Mixed-Income Residential Development in Miami

Atlantic Pacific Cos. (A|P) has broken ground on Atlantic Station, a 616-unit mixed-income rental community located at 151 NW 7th St. in Miami. The Boca Raton, Fla.-based developer says the project is the largest, single-phase, transit-oriented mixed-income community in Miami-Dade County. Atlantic Station will comprise 256 market-rate apartments and 360 workforce housing…

Will High Inflation Persist?

Monetary policy efforts to curb inflation have been a major component of economic news this past year. And for good reason: At its peak in June 2022, the headline consumer price index (CPI) was almost 9% higher than it was a year before. The consumer price index excluding food and energy—often known as core CPI—peaked in September, at about 6.7%. By either measure…

Swire plans two-tower project with supertall on Brickell Key

Swire Properties wants to add one more supertall to its pipeline of projects in Miami. The real estate arm of the Hong Kong-based firm is proposing a two-tower development on Brickell Key, a man-made island that connects to Brickell, according to filings with the Federal Aviation Association. The buildings would rise on the waterfront site of the existing…

Aimco spinoff Air pays $251M for South Beach Southgate Towers

Air Communities beefed up its portfolio with the $250.5 million purchase of Southgate Towers in Miami Beach. Air, or Apartment Income Real Estate Investment Trust, paid $223.5 million for the pair of 14-story multifamily buildings at 910 West Avenue, and $26.9 million for the garage with ground-floor retail at 959 West Avenue, according to records. The Gumenick…

Vlad Doronin, Len Blavatnik score $242M construction loan for Aman Miami Beach

Billionaires Vlad Doronin and Len Blavatnik secured a $242.4 million construction loan from Bank OZK for the oceanfront Aman Miami Beach development, bringing the total financing to more than $277 million. Affiliates of Doronin’s OKO Group and Blavatnik’s Access Industries are partnering on the two-building luxury hotel and condo project, under…

What are Community Development Districts? Inside a key financing mechanism for big developers

In the mid-2010s, Miami Worldcenter master developers Art Falcone and Nitin Motwani faced a dilemma planning the $4 billion mixed-use community in downtown Miami’s Park West section. How would they pay for the sewer pipes, roads and sidewalks needed to support new high-rise buildings on more than 25 acres of primarily industrial properties and vacant parking…

$1 million aid would put Olympia Theater restoration $16 million shy

The Miami City Commission is to decide today (1/12) whether to appropriate $1 million to fund the ongoing restoration of the historic Olympia Theater and Tower. The commission is to consider a resolution to accept $500,000 from the Florida Department of State Division of Historical Resources to repair the Olympia Theater. The city is required to match the grant funds…

Coral Gables Developer Allen Morris Lets It All Out in His Book “All In”

The audience of some 100 people included a who’s who of prominent citizens, especially those in real estate, investing, and banking. Ad- dressing them in a dark blue suit and pin-striped shirt, W. Allen Morris was a portrait of affability, in contrast to some of the darker moments described in his book. He was at Books & Books to talk about “All In,” his autobiography of…

First Ever Supertall Tower Proposed On Brickell Key

Brickell Key could be getting its first ever supertall tower, according to new filings with the Federal Aviation Administration. The FAA filings were received by the agency on December 20, 2022. Two towers would be built on the south end of Brickell Key. Tower 1 is proposed to rise 1,049 feet, while tower 2 is proposed to rise 700 feet. No developer is listed in the filing.

36-Story Atlantic Station Breaks Ground in Overtown, Miami’s Largest Mixed Income TOD

A formal groundbreaking ceremony was held this morning for the 36-story Atlantic Station (formerly Block 45) tower in Overtown. Site work has been underway since at least November. According to the developers, it is the largest single phase mixed-income Transit-Oriented Development to ever get underway in Miami-Dade County. In a July 11 water and sewer utilities…

Demolition Underway At 710 Edge Property

Demolition is now underway at the 710 Edge property in Edgewater, according to One Thousand Group. Sales will be launching soon for a new project, developer Louis Birdman wrote on Instagram. It will be an ultra-luxury tower, developer Kevin Venger wrote. Plans were filed with Miami planners in 2021 for a 55 story, 649-foot tower on the site with: 70 residential units…

Florida Was The Fastest Growing State In 2022, Census Says

Florida’s population increased 1.9% between 2021 and 2022 – faster than any other state in the nation, according to the Census Bureau. It is the first time since 1957 that Florida has ranked #1 for growth on a percentage basis, the agency said. As of July 1, 2022, Florida’s population was 22,244,823, up 416,754 compared to the same time in 2021. Only Texas added more on a…

Up for vote this week: Aman Miami Beach, medical marijuana zoning in Miami

This week, the Miami City Commission is set to vote on a number of zoning ordinances, including one tied to medical marijuana dispensaries. And a Miami Beach board will review changes to the redevelopment of the historic Versailles property into the Aman Miami Beach. At Tuesday’s Miami Beach Historic Preservation Board meeting, developer Vlad Doronin’s…

Commercial Borrowing Cost: Rate Watch for December 30, 2022

The interest rate environment has changed fairly dramatically over the past 18 months. At the end of 2022, five year treasury rates, most closely tracked for commercial property borrowing cost, closed at 3.99%, up from the 0.2% to 0.4% range it was bouncing around within during the months preceding February 2021. If one considers this essentially 4% versus 0.5%, then this would represent…

A Turkish Tower in Downtown Miami

A rare tulip is budding in Downtown Miami. When fully grown by early 2026, Okan Tower – a glass, concrete, and steel structure designed to resemble a tulip – will be a luxury, mixed-use residential, hotel, and commercial complex costing about $400 million and adding a stunning new figure to Downtown Miami’s skyline. The 70-floor skyscraper will be 902-feet tall and the tallest…

The Great Tsunami: How Miami has become the new global city

On a rainy evening in early November, a sell-out crowd of more than 250 people crowded a second-floor auditorium in the downtown campus of Miami-Dade College. Students, professors, government officials, entrepreneurs, business executives – all were gathered at the event hosted by the Economic Club of Miami to listen to a conversation between Miami Mayor Francis Suarez…

$14.4M Sale-Leaseback Brokered of Single-Tenant Retail Property in Miami Leased to Walgreens

SRS Real Estate Partners’ National Net Lease Group (NNLG) has facilitated the $14.4 million sale of a single-tenant retail property located 3595 Coral Way in Miami. Comprising 16,285 square feet, the property is occupied by the seller, Walgreens, which has signed a new 15-year, corporate guaranteed, triple-net lease. Sean Lutz, Dan Elliot, Matthew Mousavi and…

Investors sue Rishi Kapoor over Urbin Coconut Grove project

Rishi Kapoor is facing a hostile takeover bid. A minority group of investors wants to oust the Coral Gables-based developer as manager for his Urbin Coconut Grove… In 2018, Kapoor, CEO of development firm Location Ventures, teamed up with Coconut Grove-based Terra and Brickell-based Banyan Street Capital to buy a four-story office building with an open courtyard at 3138 Commodore Plaza.

Miami-Dade ranks as ‘most competitive’ apartment market in 2022

By now, it has become clear Miami-Dade County residents have a hard time finding a rental. Amid the population influx, apartment hunters face stiff competition. Turns out, the county is not just a tough place to find a unit, but the toughest market in the U.S. A new RentCafe report found Miami-Dade was the “most competitive” apartment market of 2022.

Berkowitz makes first industrial play in Homestead

Berkowitz Development Group plans a self-storage and distribution center in Homestead, marking the firm’s debut in industrial real estate in the city. The Coconut Grove-based company wants to build a nearly 400,000-square-foot speculative project on land west of the Homestead-Miami Speedway, Michael Berkowitz, company president, told The Real Deal. Berkowitz…

Carlyle and Crow Buy Miami Industrial Site for $24M

A joint venture between private equity giant Carlyle Group and developer Crow Holdings bought land west of Coral Gables, a wealthy suburb of Miami, likely for industrial development. The duo paid $24 million for an 8.6-acre parcel at 2811 SW 70th Avenue, just south of Coral Way and adjacent to the Palmetto Expressway, and simultaneously secured a $72.1M…

The Lion King: Can Robert Rivani conquer Miami’s restaurant jungle?

After dropping $19 million on the ground-floor retail space at the Miami Beach boutique condominium Marea at the end of 2021, Robert Rivani wasn’t finished. The Black Lion Investment Group founder immediately began eyeing another prime retail space down the street owned by the same sellers, A&D Group Realty’s Domenico Albano and Americo D’Agostini.

Fortune, KAR score financing for One River Point condo tower

Developers Edgardo Defortuna and Shahab Karmely secured financing for their planned waterfront condo project along the Miami River. Defortuna’s Fortune International Group bought into the One River Point site late last year, joining Karmely’s KAR Properties. Karmely’s plans for the 60-story, connecting two-to…

Industrial Real Estate Rents Take Flight Near Airports

Industrial real estate near airports in the nation’s most densely populated areas could be attractive investments for 2023. With transportation accounting for up to 70% of overall supply chain costs, businesses are increasingly locating their distribution centers closer to airports, according to CBRE Supply Chain Advisory. Many companies also have brought manufacturing…

10 of 2022’s Biggest Commercial Real Estate Trends

While commercial real estate is typically viewed as a long-term investment — both for property owners and the businesses that lease space in their buildings — it’s certainly not immune to the influence of trends. And 2022 was perhaps more trend-oriented than most years in the industry. As the world finally began to fully emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic…

Jonathan Landau On Launching His New Firm Landau Properties And Why He Left Fortis

The former CEO of Fortis Property Group started a new chapter in his career last month, and he is bringing his family along with the launch of Landau Properties. Landau will be working side by side with his daughter and son-in-law, Yaeli and DC Lowinger, and looking at developments in South Florida, New York and Boston. The family firm plans to start construction on its…

Ares pays $111M for warehouse dev site in Hialeah

From left: Ares Management’s co-founders Antony Ressler and Michael Arougheti along with an aerial view of Ares’ newly-acquired 52 acres of land on the northwest corner of Northwest 154th Street and West 40th Avenue in Hialeah: Ares Management paid $111.1 million for a Countyline Corporate Park development site in Hialeah, with plans for a three-building industrial complex.

BNP Paribas To Open New Office in Miami

BNP Paribas Securities Corp, a unit of Europe’s leading bank BNP Paribas, today announced its plans to open a new office in the metro-Miami area. The Miami office will support the continued growth of its Global Markets business in the US, amongst others, and the increasing number of clients with a foothold in South Florida. The hub will provide an additional gateway…

This Week’s South Florida Deal Sheet

Harbor Group International has acquired an apartment community in Miami Gardens for $113M. The Virginia-based investor bought the 420-unit development known as Oak Enclave Miami on Dec. 29 from Resia, a firm owned by Brazilian-based developer MRV, the South Florida Business Journal reports. Cushman & Wakefield brokered the deal. The 14-acre parcel includes five…

Top 10 Commercial Real Estate Trends for 2023

In 2022, spiking interest rates, inflation and a war in the Ukraine brought considerable change to commercial real estate and the U.S. economy overall. With interest rates and values expected to stabilize, and all stakeholders rethinking the highest and best use of their property and capital, this year promises to be an interesting one, too. Here are 10 trends likely to shape…

U-Haul Growth States of 2022: Texas, Florida Top List Again

Texas, Florida and the Carolinas were the preferred destinations of one-way U-Haul® truck customers during 2022, ranking as the top growth states on the annual U-Haul Growth Index. U-Haul transactional data confirms that migration to the Southeast and Southwest U.S. – trends that were amplified and accelerated during the pandemic – continued through last year, although…

Brightline Gets Big Boost In Traffic From Aventura & Boca, New Trains Added

Brightline told investors today that it is seeing strong traffic at its two new stations in Aventura & Boca Raton. The Boca station opened December 21, with Aventura opening December 24. In the final days of December, the two new stations accounted for 24% of Brightline ridership, with 17,682 rides. The company said it moved two Orlando trainsets to the south segment…

Photo: Spider-Like Arch Of Signature Bridge Now Rising

A new photo by Phillip Pessar shows one of the Signature Bridge arches rising out of the ground. Each segment will be a precast installation, except for the final segment (seen in purple) poured in place. Temporary towers will support the structure during the work… Pictures show current construction, plans, and rendering of completed bridge…

CareRite pays $36M for pair of Broward nursing, rehab centers

CareRite Centers paid $35.6 million for two Broward County nursing and rehabilitation facilities, marking the firm’s continued investment in South Florida’s health care market. The firm bought Manor Pines at 1701 Northeast 26th Street in Wilton Manors, and Manor Oaks at 2121 East Commercial Boulevard in Fort Lauderdale, according to records and real estate data provider…

Capital Square Purchases Parkland Multifamily Asset

Parkland Apartments. Image courtesy of Bell Partners Capital Square has added a nearly fully occupied community in Parkland, Fla. to its portfolio of Section 1031 communities. The firm acquired the 396-unit Parkland Apartments on behalf of CS1031 Parkland Apartments, DST from Bell Partners. The firm is looking to raise $105.7 million in equity from investors, with a minimum…

Steve Ross scores approval for 515 Fern in downtown West Palm

Stephen Ross’ plan to develop the biggest office tower in downtown West Palm Beach passed a major hurdle on Wednesday. The West Palm Beach Downtown Action Committee greenlit the site plan and four variances, or exemptions from the city code, for the planned 25-story 515 Fern. City approval of several other aspects of the project are still pending. Ross’ Related Companies…

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January 11, 2023

Commercial Borrowing Cost: Rate Watch for December 30, 2022

U.S. Treasury 5 Year Nominal Rates Dec 30, 2017 to December 30, 2022

U.S. Treasury 5 Year Nominal Rates Dec 30, 2017 to December 30, 2022

The interest rate environment has changed fairly dramatically over the past 18 months. At the end of 2022, five year treasury rates, most closely tracked for commercial property borrowing cost, closed at 3.99%, up from the 0.2% to 0.4% range it was bouncing around within during the months preceding February 2021. If one considers this essentially 4% versus 0.5%, then this would represent a 350 bp increase. If CRE financing is assumed at 2.25% over the five year treasury yield, this would mean an interest rate of 2.75% would increase to 6.25%, more than double. Considered practically, the principal and interest (P&I) for a 15 year mortgage, per million, would increase 26% from $9,784 to $12,326. For a 25 year million dollar mortgage, it would increase by 48%, from $6,651 to $9,483. Considering this in reverse, buying power in terms of P&I, i.e. debt per dollar of P&I, decreases by 21% for a 15 year mortgage, 30% for a 25 year, given these assumptions. These are hypothetical assumptions, mind you, but the real effect in the marketplace has at least approached these levels. The bottom line is that buyers utilizing financing to purchase property now have larger monthly debt service expense at the same price, and consequently have reduced buying power. Those buyers paying cash in turn have less competition.

“A bank is a place that will lend you money if you can prove that you don’t need it.”

~Bob Hope

The interest rate environment has the ability to affect commercial property economics in a number of different ways (see thisthis, and this).  Borrowing costs are, of course, affected directly, as higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing and thus  negatively affecting demand.  Cap rates tend move over time with interest rates, but not in lockstep, with considered analyses generally concluding that capitalization rates on average move in the same direction as 10-year rates, but only about a third as much, and again not in lockstep.  Interest rates also affect the economy, which in turn affects vacancy and rental rates.

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January 5, 2023

Miami Commercial Real Estate News January 4, 2023: Last Miami Area Sears Eyed for 800 Resi Units; Miami Gardens Multifamily Trades for $113M; More…

B Group bids $102M for 20 acres in Miami’s Upper Eastside

B Group Capital Management submitted a $102 million stalking horse bid for nearly 20 acres in Miami’s Upper Eastside and El Portal that are tied to a lawsuit alleging EB-5 fraud. The Miami-based… seeks to acquire the former U.S. immigration building site spanning 3.5 acres at 7880 Biscayne Boulevard, and a 15.9-acre former trailer park at 8500 Biscayne Boulevard, court…

Here’s how South Florida real estate bigwigs rang in the new year

South Florida real estate’s biggest players rang in the new year in fabulous style. Brokers and developers went far and wide to celebrate the holiday, hitting the slopes in Aspen, partying in Uruguay, Dubai and Greece, lounging in St. Barts and Thailand, and hobnobbing at high-society soirees in Palm Beach…

Related scores $164M construction loan for Brickell apartment tower

The Related Group secured a $164 million construction loan for a waterfront apartment tower on the site of its planned Baccarat Residences development near downtown Miami. Truist Bank provided the financing to an affiliate of Coconut Grove-based Related. The loan can be increased to up to $340 million, records show. The financing is for 444 Brickell Tower II…

Last Sears In Miami Eyed For 800-Unit Residential Redevelopment

Miami real estate magnate Raanan Katz is looking to tear down the last Sears in Miami city limits and replace it with housing and a park. Katz, who leads retail real estate firm RK Centers and co-owns the Miami Heat, is having discussions with local community groups about a plan to replace the 68-year-old property at 3655 Southwest 22nd St. with two 400-unit apartment buildings…

Miami’s Last Sears Store Eyed for Dense Residential Development

Wary residents of the historic Coral Gate community are in talks with a large-scale developer who wants to tear down a nearby 68-year-old Sears and build a modern residential and retail complex in its place. Raanan Katz of RK Centers, which holds more than ten million square feet of commercial real estate across the country, has owned the Sears property since 1987.

Coral Gables investor Maria Menzel adds another dev site to Edgewater portfolio

Maria Menzel continued her land banking spree in Miami’s Edgewater by acquiring another development site, three months after her last assemblage purchase. A Delaware entity with the same address as a Coral Gables condominium owned by Menzel paid $12.5 million for six vacant parcels at 410, 420 and 432 Northeast 27th Street and 415, 425 and 435 Northeast 26th Terrace

Check out South Florida’s biggest office leases of 2022

7850 Southwest Sixth Court in Plantation with Jazwares’ Judd Zebersky and RMR Group’s Adam Portnoy, Rendering of the 830 Brickell office tower with OKO Group’s Vlad Doronin and Cain International’s Jonathan Goldstein: In most U.S. markets, 2022 was far from a boon for offices. Subleases piled up in California, as tech companies looked to downsize. Facebook parent Meta is…

Forbes Neighborhood To Watch: Miami’s Little River

Long an economically distressed neighborhood with shuttered buildings, Little River, Miami has been methodically taking shape as a champion of local talent, culture and small business, with the city’s top creators and innovators clamoring to set up shop in the area. In effect, the area is undergoing a transformation similar…

Limestone, Orion Purchase Colonial Palms Plaza Shopping Center in Pinecrest for $70.5M

Limestone Asset Management and Orion Real Estate Group have purchased Colonial Palms Plaza, a 188,389-square-foot retail center located in Pinecrest, roughly 20 miles southwest of Miami. The joint venture, doing business as Orion Colonial Plaza LLC, acquired the property for $70.5 million. The property comprises seven buildings and 29 tenants, including Marshalls…

NY firm ARC PE sells Miami Beach mixed-use building at 40% loss

Distressed real estate investor ARC PE scooped up a mixed-use building on the previously popular retail strip of Collins Avenue in Miami Beach, paying 41 percent less than the property’s purchase price a decade ago. Shire Realty sold the three-story building at 826 Collins Avenue for $5 million, according to a news release from the buyer’s broker.

Stephanie Shojaee talks marriage to Masoud, rejection and sexism

Scroll through Stephanie Shojaee’s Instagram and you’ll come across photos and videos of her and her husband Masoud around the world, in Qatar, France, Greece and Miami. She frequently documents her lavish lifestyle with her spouse, co-founder of Shoma Group, and their dog, Pebbles. But she’s shared little about the backlash they faced from Masoud’s adult daughters…

Harbor pays $113M for Miami Gardens rental complex

Harbor Group International paid $113 million for a Miami Gardens apartment complex. Resia sold Oak Enclave Miami at 2301 Northwest 167th Street before year-end, after completing the 420-unit community in June, according to a Harbor Group news release. Robert Given and Troy Ballard of Cushman & Wakefield…

Easton, LBA score $61M construction loan for Hialeah warehouses

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Improvement district to celebrate Coconut Grove aviation heritage

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Chart – Inflation Watch New Year’s Day 2023: TIPS Spread Indicating 2.33% Expected Inflation for Next 5 Years

The chart above is of the 5-Year breakeven inflation rate, commonly referred to as the TIPS spread, for the five year period ending on December 30, 2022, the last trading day of 2022. This illustrates the difference in the yields, i.e. the spread, between United States Treasury bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) of the same maturity. This is a useful and oft-quoted…

CRE Experts Round-Up: Top Retail Trends to Expect in 2023

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Harbor Group International Acquires Miami Community

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LBA pays $198M for Sweetwater industrial business park

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Check out the biggest retail leases in South Florida of 2022

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How was the South Florida commercial real estate market in 2022, and what is coming in 2023?

South Florida’s commercial real estate market – in sectors such as retail, multi-family and industrial – is ending the year strongly. Thanks to the influx of companies moving to the area, especially Brickell, office rentals have been very strong. Tenants include hedge fund giant Citadel, Microsoft, WeWork and Blackstone, among others. Confidence in the office sector is most evident…

Miami Airport reaches high for cargo capacity

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$10M Refinancing Arranged for Carolina Springs Plaza Shopping Center in Margate

MMCC has arranged a $10 million loan for the refinancing of Carolina Springs Plaza, a grocery-anchored, 125,500-square-foot shopping center located at 7804-8092 W. Sample Road in Margate. El Bodegon Supermarket has anchored the 13.4-acre property since 2011. Robert Bhat of MMCC’s Miami office arranged the 10-year, fixed-rate loan, which features a 25-year…

Related nabs $56M loan to build FATVillage affordable rentals

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IDI Logistics sells Pompano Beach warehouse for $26M

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Integra plans townhouse rental community near FAU in Boca Raton

Integra Investments wants to build a luxury townhouse community near Florida Atlantic University, the firm’s second real estate play in the Boca Raton market. Integra principal Nelson Stabile said the firm envisions 100 to 120 rental townhouses on 8 acres at 2600 Northwest Fifth Avenue. The Miami-based developer bought the…

Banyan Cay Resort & Golf Club is headed toward foreclosure sale

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January 4, 2023

Chart – Inflation Watch New Year’s Day 2023: TIPS Indicating 2.33% Expected Inflation for Next 5 Years

5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (TIPS Spread)

The chart above is of the 5-Year breakeven inflation rate, commonly referred to as the TIPS spread, for the five year period ending on December 30, 2022, the last trading day of 2022. This illustrates the difference in the yields, i.e. the spread, between United States Treasury bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) of the same maturity. This is a useful and oft-quoted measure of expectations for (CPI) inflation in the financial markets. The spread indicates expected inflation, of interest to investors in commercial real estate – more on that below – and for that matter investors of all kinds.

As one can see in these charts, the 5-year TIPS spread hit a high in March, 2022 at 3.59%. As the Fed has maneuvered aggressively to tap inflation down, this has now pulled back to its year end 2022 level of 2.33%, which would be markedly down from the actual inflation of 7.1%, as measured by the CPI, in the year ending November 2022. This indicates that financial markets are confident that inflation is coming down, that the Fed is “on it” and will get the job done, likely sooner rather than later given that five year expectation level as compared to recently inflation readings. Investors are putting their money on a bet that inflation it going to be at this 2.33% level on average for the next five years. This indication may be wrong, of course; traders lose money – cough FTX – all the time, after all. The relevance here is that numbers paying close attention and that are putting their money on the line believe inflation is going to subside.

“I don’t mind going back to daylight saving time. With inflation, the hour will be the only thing I’ve saved all year.”

~Victor Borge

Not Just Opinions, Real Money is on the Line

Real money is at stake with these spreads. TIPS pay interest every six months, based on a fixed rate that is calculated by multiplying the adjusted principal by one-half the calculated interest rate (i.e. half a year’s worth of inflation at that rate). Thus, a “bet” that an investor makes in with these bonds has real financial implications. If actual inflation is higher than priced in the markets, a TIPS buyer will make more that a straight treasury buyer. If it is lower, that TIPS buyer will make less. How much money is at stake? In 2017 Morningstar pegged the market at $1.2 trillion. Thus, every 1/10% difference is a $1.2 billion swing. That is real money by my count.

Also seemingly relevant to the topic of effectiveness of this spready to predict inflation is a research piece put out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in 2019: Inflation expectations and inflation realities: a comparison of the Treasury Breakeven Inflation curve and the Consumer Price Index before, during, and after the Great Recession. It concluded that TBI (Treasury Breakeven Inflation) rates reasonably approximated inflation reality before, during, and after the Great Recession of 2007-2009.  It noted that the average and median deviations between TBI rates and their respective annualized CPI-U inflation rates never exceed 81 basis points, and that, moreover, the dispersion of deviations, as measured by standard deviation and range, decreased as the maturity horizon increased. It went further to speculate that given that TBI expectations overshoot actual inflation in the long term and undershoot inflation in the short term, it is likely that the liquidity premium has a considerable effect in the short term but gets more than offset by the inflation premium in the long term.

Generally on Inflation and Commercial Real Estate

What is the impact of inflation on commercial real estate? In the near term, higher inflation tends to bring higher interest rates. Higher interest rates are a negative for commercial real estate. Higher rates means larger debt service payments, reducing the buying power of purchasers, and negatively impacting deal economics. It also means makes fixed income investments a more competitive investment, likely pulling capitalization rates (cap rates) up, and thus prices down. Over a longer period, however, the prospect of inflation leads to a principal benefit of commercial property investment, that of its potential as a hedge against inflation. After all, more inflation should lead to higher rent, at least in time.

MIT published an excellent whitepaper on real estate’s ability to keep pace with inflation with data to 2016. They looked at then tendency of retail, multifamily, industrial, and office income and values to keep pace with inflation. The best at keeping pace income-wise was retail, with rent growth of 102% of inflation. Office was the worst performing at a quite dismal 18%. Values across the property types were more consistently kept pace, with retail again doing the best appreciating at 107% of inflation, office again the worst at 74% of inflation. I’ll speculate that the fairly drastic difference between income and value keeping pace with inflation is driven by vacancy. If you’re interested in the topic, read the paper.

Expectations for inflation also come into play with lease structure and due diligence. A lease structure with a fixed rent increase becomes less attractive for a landlord with higher inflation expectations. Similarly, a commercial property being acquired with existing leasing in place that have fixed or capped rent increases looks less attractive as inflation expectations increase. Also, a property being purchased with fixed rate financing will look increasingly attractive if a buyer anticipates inflation fueled increases in income. Inflation, in short, is very important to commercial property investors.

Destinations Related to this TIPS Spread Post:

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January 1, 2023

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December 28, 2022

Video: Financing Today with Tom Walsh of Grandbridge Real Estate Capital

Tom Walsh, Senior Vice President at Grandbridge Real Estate Capital, one of the nation’s largest full-service commercial real estate finance firms, appears on America’s Commercial Real Estate Show to share an inside look at the current state of commercial real estate financing. Topics discussed include interest rates, LTV (loan to value) rations, DSCR (debt service coverage ratio), underwriting, valuations, and sources of financing. Also discussed is the current appetite of the various financing sources including Fannie, Freddie, HUD, CMBS, Life Co and Banks. They also cover strategies related to commercial real estate loan maturities, workouts, and distress, as well as how this market may shake out in comparison to previous cycles. Considerable time is spent discussing how DSCR is driving down effective LTV ratios as interest rates have increased while cap rates have not.

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December 28, 2022

Miami Commercial Real Estate News December 21, 2022: 4M sf $1B Riverfront Dev Breaks Ground; 55-Story Brickell Office Full Before Completion; Biggest Deals of 2022; More…

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Miami Beach is seeking letters of interest from artistic and cultural organizations and facility operators to gauge what visions they could have for the development of a Byron Carlyle cultural center in North Miami Beach. Miami Beach Commissioner Alex Fernandez asked the administration to request letters of interest to better understand “how would they envision the use…

Jimmy Morales: Cites infrastructure gaps as businesses flood into county

When Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava offered Jimmy Morales the job of chief operations officer, he knew her vision would match his own, he recalls. The county’s need for resiliency infrastructure due to its own economic growth is a top priority, and he hopes to complete several transportation, sewer and water, housing and environmental infrastructure projects.

Why An Inspector Should Be Your Next Construction Project Manager

The construction management field is booming. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics predicted an eleven percent growth in this job market over the next 10 years. With economic growth comes more commercial construction and the need for a construction project manager to keep everything on-track. Construction project managers are key to completing a project in the most…

70-Story Ora By Casa Tua Tower Announced For Brickell

Plans have just been announced for a 70-story tower in Brickell called Ora. Developer Edgardo DeFortuna told The Real Deal that the project will have around 460 residential units. The tower will be built at at 1210 Brickell Avenue by developer Fortune International Group, with multiple restaurants, a market, and rooftop lounge by Casa Tua. Short term rentals will be allowed.

Miami Worldcenter Retail 75% Leased: New Tenants Announced

Multiple new retail tenants have just signed on at Miami Worldcenter, bringing the retail space to 75% leased. Club Studio, Earls Kitchen + Bar, and Luli Fama Join Dynamic Shopping and Dining Options at Miami Worldcenter. Expected to open in 2023/2024, the three national retail and restaurant concepts will become the newest tenants at the $4 billion, 27-acre mixed-use…

WNWD21 Breaks Ground In Wynwood, 304 Luxury Rental Apartments Planned

Leading developer Related Group, in partnership with private equity firm, Rockpoint, today broke ground on WNWD21, a new luxury mixed-use tower consisting of 304 apartments, more than 18,000 square feet of retail, and 63,000 square feet of office space. Located in the heart of the Wynwood neighborhood, at the intersection of 22nd and North Miami Avenue, the project…

40-Story Downtown Miami Tower Breaks Ground, Will Include 448 Condos

Construction is now officially under at downtown Miami’s 501 First. A groundbreaking ceremony was held on December 13, according to a social media post by Oneworld Properties, which handled sales at the development. The 40-story tower is unusual in that it is being built without a parking garage. All 448 condos were sold out as of last year. Aria Development Group and Aqarat…

The Fed: How Well Does the Beige Book Reflect Economic Trends?

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book is released before each of the eight regularly scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings per year. The idea is that the report—which emphasizes anecdotal and qualitative information—will provide a timely assessment of economic conditions before the official statistics are released, as noted in a June 2022 Economic Synopses essay.

Vlad Doronin’s 830 Brickell signs law firm for record 115K sf lease

Vlad Doronin’s OKO Group and Jonathan Goldstein’s Cain International scored their biggest lease at the 830 Brickell tower. Law firm Kirkland & Ellis took 115,000 square feet on six floors at the office high-rise, which is still under construction, according to a news release from the developers. The firm, which has no headquarters, was founded in…

Turnberry turns to Wynwood, plans mixed-use hotel project

Turnberry Associates is planning a mixed-use hotel project in Wynwood on a site it acquired from the Bacardi family, The Real Deal has learned. Aventura-based Turnberry, led by Jackie Soffer, paid $13.1 million for the properties at 127 and 135 Northwest 24th Street and 128 and 138 Northwest 25th Street, Vizzda data and records show. One of Soffer’s brothers, Rock…

Jarden co-founder Martin Franklin nabs stake in Casa Tua

British-American businessman Martin Franklin bought a large minority stake in the hospitality firm Casa Tua as it expands, The Real Deal has learned. Franklin approached owners Miky and Leti Grendene about buying a stake in the company, Miky Grendene said. Franklin, a Miami-based executive, co-founded Jarden Corp., which was sold to Newell Brands in 2016, and he leads…

South Florida’s biggest hotel sales of 2022

It was a good year to be in the hospitality business in South Florida. After a pandemic-induced nosedive in travel, visitors returned to the region in 2022 in a big way. Tourism jumped 15.3 percent compared to last year, according to Visit Florida. The Greater Miami Visitors Convention & Bureau reported that as of October, Miami-Dade’s year-to-date occupancy rate was 72.2 percent…

Lease roundup: Deco Capital Nabs Pretium Partners as tenant

Investment management firm Pretium Partners will open an office at the Eighteen Sunset office project under construction in Miami Beach. New York-based Pretium, with more than $50 billion of assets under management, leased 11,600 square feet on the fourth floor at 1769 Purdy Avenue, according to a news release from the Miami Beach Economic Development…

Berkadia Secures $36.2M Acquisition Loan for Miami Office Building

Berkadia has arranged a $36.2 million loan for the acquisition of Cube WYNWD, an office building in the Wynwood neighborhood of Miami. Located at 230 NW 24th Street, the building comprises 90,000 square feet of office space and 10,000 square feet of retail space. Scott Wadler of Berkadia secured the financing on behalf of the borrower, a joint venture between San Francisco-based…

Here are South Florida’s biggest industrial leases of 2022

Bigger is better when it comes to South Florida industrial leases. Across Miami-Dade, Palm Beach and Broward counties, major retailers and shipping services like Target and FedEx leased 2.8 million square feet of industrial space in the largest leases of 2022, far outstripping last year’s total of 2.2 million square feet. Amazon was notably absent from this year…

Westpine bets on Brickell rentals for first project

Westpine Partners, a newly formed development firm targeting top U.S. markets, picked Miami’s Brickell for its first project. Westpine wants to build a 43-story tower with 328 apartments at 160 and 180 Southwest Ninth Street, according to an application filed to Miami-Dade County last week. Plans call for the Behar Font & Partners-designed high-rise…

Menesse JV proposes 39-story Brickell rental tower

Menesse International is upping the ante on its Brickell bet. The development group filed a proposal for a 39-story tower with 400 apartments at 143 Southwest Ninth Street. It’s a larger project than it had planned five months ago. Menesse International is a joint venture that combines a pair of Mexico-based developers that have largely focused on the Latin American…

Fortune plans 70-story Casa Tua condo tower in Brickell

Fortune International Group is planning a luxury Casa Tua condo tower in Miami’s Brickell neighborhood that will allow short-term rentals, The Real Deal has learned. Ora by Casa Tua, a 70-story, roughly 460-unit development, is planned for the site at 1210 Brickell Avenue, Fortune CEO Edgardo Defortuna said…

Brightline Launches Ultra-Fast Service To Aventura & Boca Raton Next Week

Brightline has announced an official launch date and other details for service to Aventura and Boca Raton. Tickets are now on sale, with service to both new stations beginning December 21 The train ride between downtown Miami’s MiamiCentral and Aventura will be especially fast at just 17 minutes, according to the newly released schedule. By contrast, a mid-day trip…

Study: Miami Was The Hottest U.S. Rental Market In 2022

Miami “was by far the hottest rental market in the U.S” in 2022, according to a new study by RentCafe. The analysis showed that 97.5% of units in Miami-Dade County were occupied  – the highest of all major markets. The lease renewal rate in the county was also exceptionally high at 75%. When apartments did become available, there were 32 prospective tenants for each unit…

Demolition Soon To Make Way For 57-Story Casa Bella, Sales Center Relocates

The sales gallery for Casa Bella by B&B Italia has relocated to make way for demolition and construction of the 57-story tower. The old sales gallery is now vacant and will be torn down, according to Olga Monson, Casa Bella’s Director of Sales. Other businesses in the massive 1400 Biscayne office and retail complex have also relocated to make way for demolition…

65-Story E11EVEN Residences Beyond Enters Construction Permitting

Construction permitting is now underway for a second 65-story E11EVEN tower in Park West, according to Miami Building Department records. Demolition at the site took place in October. Construction on the first 65-story tower, known as E11EVEN Hotel & Residences, is already underway. A construction permit for the second tower known as E11EVEN Residences…

Chetrit Group to Build 4 MSF Waterfront Development in Miami

The Chetrit Group, a privately held New York City-based developer, plans to develop The River District, a 4 million-square-foot mixed-use destination in Miami. The project will span more than six acres along the Miami River waterfront. Total development costs will exceed $1 billion, according to Bloomberg. The Chetrit Group previously secured a $310 million loan from Madison Realty…

Video: National Retail Federation VP of Research Mark Matthews Provided Retail Sales Updates & Forecast

Mark Mathews with the National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association, joins America’s Commercial Real Estate Show to discuss how retailers are doing and expectations for retail sales activity going forward, which of course has implications for retail property investors. Discussions include holiday sales forecast, online sales vs in-store, and categories of retail…

SHVO Gets Approval to Renovate Landmark Miami Beach Office

Rendering of 407 Lincoln Road redevelopment. Image courtesy of SHVO SHVO has secured the unanimous approval of the Miami Beach Historic Preservation Board for the revitalization of 407 Lincoln Road in Miami Beach, Fla., into a Class A luxury office property, the development and investment firm announced on Wednesday, Dec 14. SHVO’s plans to revamp the 13-story…

Pompano approves affordable housing project next to homeless center

A non-profit group won approval to develop as many as 138 income-restricted apartments behind a homeless assistance center in an industrial part of Pompano Beach. The Broward Partnership for the Homeless plans to build the apartments in a joint venture with Green Mills LLC, a Fort Lauderdale-based developer of affordable and workforce housing.

Juiciest South Florida real estate lawsuits of 2022

Pay up! Pay up! Pay up! That was a recurring theme for prominent South Florida real estate players feeling the sting of the judicial system in 2022. During the past year, Miami-Dade Circuit Court judges in separate cases slapped developers Armando Codina and Don Peebles, as well as hoteliers Nakash brothers, with hefty judgments and sanctions totaling more than…

Brickell Megaproject Announced: The River District To Have 4 Towers, Partnership With Groot Hospitality

New York developer Chetrit Group has just announced plans for a Brickell megaproject called The River District. Four towers are planned with condos, office space and rentals. Construction is already underway on the first. David Grutman of Groot Hospitality is partnering to provide restaurant and nightlife venues. A riverwalk and marina is also being built. The project website…

Jungle Island Owner Files Plans For Themed 300-Room Hotel

The owner of Jungle Island has filed plans for a themed hotel. The hotel is planned to rise 12 stories and include 300 rooms. A 7-story parking garage with 965 spaces will also be built. An outdated parking garage will be demolished to make way for the new development. The original Jungle Island ballroom and conference facilities will be modernized and integrated into…

Developer Unveils Plans To Build Civica With 342 Residential Units

Plans for Civica are being switched from office to residential. According to the newly revised plans, Civica will now rise 27 stories and include: 342 residential units amenities commercial and office 590 parking spaces in an 8 level garage (a minimum of 389 spaces are required by zoning) The number of floors is increasing from the 22 stories previously planned, but the height…

One Brickell City Centre – New Rendering Shows Helicopter

The developers of the One Brickell City Centre supertall have released a new rendering showing what appears to be a helicopter coming in for a landing. The rendering was first spotted by Ryan RC Rea at the project site. Developers Swire Properties and Related Companies plan to begin demolition at the property in early 2023, followed by foundation work. Related founder…

WeWork Miami Occupancy Hits 97% – Top Worldwide

Miami is the top performing market for WeWork worldwide when it comes to office occupancy, according to a new report from CoStar. WeWork’s offices in Miami were 97% occupied in the second quarter – far above New York (68%), San Francisco (75%), and Boston (57%). Other coworking operators are seeing similar results in Miami, and are looking to expand. The report…

Phased Construction Permit Issued At Wynwood Diamedix

A phased construction permit has been issued for Wynwood Diamedix, Miami Building Department records show. The project is also known as PRH N. Miami. It includes two 12-story buildings across the street from each other on east and west parcels. The phased permit on one parcel was issued on November 18. Across the street, another phased permit for the second parcel…

Revealed: 43-Story Westpine Proposed In Brickell

Plans for a 43-story residential tower called Westpine have just been filed in Brickell. Westpine is planned to top off at 474 feet above ground and include: 328 residential units approximately 1,155 square feet of ground-floor retail space 357 parking spaces A letter from the developer’s representative states: Consistent with the County’s vision for developments within the RTZ…

Rents are now rising at the slowest pace in 19 months

Rents for both single-family homes and apartments are still rising, but at a far slower pace, as inflation squeezes consumers and landlords lose pricing power. Rent growth in November slowed for the 10th straight month, with rents up just 3.4% compared with November 2021, according to Realtor.com. That is the smallest gain in 19 months. In the 50 largest metropolitan markets…

First Financial drops $29M for Miramar gas station, convenience store

A Los Angeles-based investment firm paid a high-octane premium for a gas station and convenience store in Broward County. An affiliate of First Financial Capital bought the Mobil at 16961 Miramar Parkway in Miramar for $28.8 million, according to Vizzda and records. The buyer obtained a $20.1 million mortgage from Bank of Hope, also based in Los Angeles. The seller…

Kushner, Aimco sell piece of Fort Lauderdale assemblage

Kushner Companies and Aimco sold a piece of their three-lot development assemblage near downtown Fort Lauderdale’s Brightline station. Woodfield Development paid $18.3 million for the 0.8-acre site at 520 West Broward Boulevard, with plans to build a 41-story multifamily tower, according to records. The buyer took out a $9.1 million loan tied to the property…

Todd Nepola pays $24M for Lauderdale Lakes shopping centers

Todd Nepola’s Current Capital Management picked up a pair of adjacent shopping centers in Lauderdale Lakes, beefing up its Broward County retail portfolio. An affiliate of Hollywood-based Current Capital paid $23.7 million for Oakland Shopping Center at 4101-4397 North State Road Seven, and Lakes Medical Center at 4455-4485 North State Road Seven, according…

Developer wins approval for 13-story Embassy Suites hotel in Dania Beach

A Doral-based developer won approval in Dania Beach for a 222-room Embassy Suites by Hilton hotel on Federal Highway. Benito Irastorza, CEO of Iras Group, is the manager of an LLC that acquired the hotel development site in August 2016 for $3.1 million, according to state and county records. Irastorza plans to build a 13-story hotel on the 1.2-acre site, just south…

Merit Hill Capital picks up another Broward self-storage property

Merit Hill CEO Elizabeth Schlesinger and the Pines West Storage Center at 400 Northwest 172nd Avenue in Pembroke Pines (Merit Hill, Google Maps, Getty) South Florida is going through a mini-surge of self-storage deals, with Merit Hill Capital picking up its second Broward facility in less than a month. An affiliate of Brooklyn-based Merit Hill paid $17 million for Pines…

Trinsic scores $92M refi for Aura Boca apartment building

Trinsic Residential Group landed a $92 million refinancing for its Boca Raton multifamily project. MetLife Investment Management provided the fixed rate loan for Aura Boca, an eight-story building with 322 units at 789 West Yamato Road, a press release states. Steven Kohn and Alex Hernandez with Cushman & Wakefield arranged the financing. An affiliate of Dallas-based Trinsic paid…

Wanxiang’s real estate arm sells Bristol condo in West Palm for $12M

Wanxiang America Real Estate sold a condo in West Palm Beach’s Bristol tower for $12 million, setting a price-per-square-foot record in the building. Records show Wanxiang USA Holdings Corporation sold unit 1403 at the condominium at 1100 South Flagler Drive to Jason Horowitz as trustee of the LATOSUD Trust. The selling entity is an affiliate of Wanxiang America Real Estate…

Palm Beach Gardens Office Building Changes Hands

A joint venture between Alchemy-ABR Investment Partners and Breakers Capital Partners has sold 4200-4400 Northcorp Parkway, a Class A office property in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. ABS National Business Parks acquired the asset for $38 million, in an off-market deal. According to CommercialEdge data, the 115,000-square-foot property previously traded in 2016 for $30.1M…

PrivCap sells assisted living facilities in Margate, Davie

PPrivCap Companies sold a pair of assisted living facilities in Broward County for a combined $12.7 million. The Boca Raton-based investment firm sold the properties at 6810 Southwest Seventh Street in Margate and at 4681 Southwest 66th Avenue in Davie to entities led by Zalman Skoblo and Zvi Jacobowitz of Brooklyn, according to records.

Deerfield Beach voters to decide on Hensel Phelps’ mixed-use development

Voters will decide in a referendum if Deerfield Beach can sell city land for a mixed-use development with an office building, hotel, retail stores, restaurants, and income-restricted apartments. A development team led by construction company Hensel Phelps offered to pay $6.5 million to the city…

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December 21, 2022

Video: National Retail Federation VP of Research Mark Matthews Provided Retail Sales Updates & Forecast

Mark Mathews with the National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association, joins America’s Commercial Real Estate Show to discuss how retailers are doing and expectations for retail sales activity going forward, which of course has implications for retail property investors. Discussions include holiday sales forecast, online sales vs in-store, and categories of retail expected to perform well. He begins by noting that consumers accumulated savings of $2.5 trillion from the $10 trillion or so of fiscal stimulus during the pandemic and that though this has been spent down some it still is estimated to be about $1.5 trillion. This, he says, has fueled strong retail sales, up 7.5% over last year, with last year itself being a record year with 13.5% growth in retail sales. The NRF is projecting 6-8% growth in retail sales for 2023, and similar growth for the impending holiday season versus last year.

This is an interesting video with lots of interesting charts, a must for retail property investors but also one for anyone interested in general economic trends.

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December 15, 2022

Miami Commercial Real Estate News December 14, 2022: $1B Miami River Project Revived; FTX Was Miami Bound; Cube Wynwd Trades for $62M, Gables Dev Site $36M; More…

Chetrit revives $1B Miami River megaproject

The Chetrit Group is resuscitating plans for its $1 billion megaproject along the Miami River, and is tapping hospitality mogul David Grutman to run the food and beverage operations. New York-based Chetrit secured approval in 2015 for the 4 million-square-foot phased project, planned for a 6.2-acre site south of the river between I-95 and Southwest Second…

Caroline Weiss beats daughter in suit over Blue Lagoon dev site

After eight years, Caroline Weiss won a legal civil war with her daughter, who contested her mother’s ownership of a prime development site in Miami’s Blue Lagoon neighborhood. Following a non-jury trial nine months ago, Miami-Dade Circuit Court Judge Migna Sanchez-Llorens on Monday ruled in Weiss’ favor. The judge determined that her eldest child…

Adam America, Stellar plan apartments in Ojus

Stellar Communities and Adam America Real Estate are planning a 223-unit apartment project in Ojus, marking the partnership’s second wager on the neighborhood. The developers want to build a 12-story building on 2 acres between Northeast 192nd and 193rd streets, near West Dixie Highway, according to a proposal filed to Miami-Dade County…

Miami Beach board approves Galbut hotel, Shvo office project

A trio of major projects scored key approvals from the Miami Beach Preservation Board on Tuesday. Russell Galbut can move ahead with the redevelopment of an apartment complex into a hotel in the city’s South of Fifth neighborhood. Michael Shvo can charge forward with his reimagining of the office clock tower on Lincoln Road. And Witkoff and…

Location Ventures closes on $36M Coral Gables development site

Rishi Kapoor closed on a $35.6 million Coral Gables development site, after securing city approval to build a 16-story mixed-use condominium project. Kapoor’s Location Ventures bought 1.6 acres on the southeast corner of Ponce De Leon Boulevard and Menores Avenue from the Hollo family’s Florida East Coast Realty, according to records.

FTX eyed high-end office space in Miami before bankruptcy

If FTX didn’t collapse, a handful of the crypto exchange’s executives would be working out of a posh office building in the heart of Miami’s financial district. The now-bankrupt FTX was set to move into a 35-story, high-end tower at 1450 Brickell Avenue in Miami’s financial district, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named. The new office space would…

Related-party transactions: Where do Ross and Pérez go from here?

Steve Ross mentioned it almost in passing. After more than 40 years together, his Related Companies and Jorge Pérez’s Related Group had recently “just kind of split,” he said during an industry talk in Miami last week. Ross didn’t state his partner’s name, but he was referring to Related Group. The separation, which Ross and Pérez said was “very amicable…”

Miami Worldcenter Delivers 80,000 SF ‘Jewel Box” Retail

The developers of Miami Worldcenter have completed another 80,000 square feet of lifestyle-driven retail space. The stand-alone building, known as Block F-East, marks one of the final retail components of the 27-acre project to be delivered as active vertical development continues at the $4 billion mixed-use development in the heart of Downtown Miami. Featuring…

Brick & Timber closes on $62M purchase of Cube Wynwd

Brick & Timber Collective closed on its third building in Miami’s Wynwood neighborhood. Brick & Timber paid $62 million for Cube Wynwd, an office property at 222 Northwest 24th Street, according to sources. The sellers, Ben Mandell’s Tricera Capital and Alex Karakhanian’s Lndmrk Development, kept a roughly 20 percent stake in the building, sources…

Judge approves foreclosure of Chetrit’s Tides hotel in Miami Beach

Chetrit Group is on the hook for more than $82 million, after a judge ruled in favor of its lender’s foreclosure of the shuttered Tides South Beach hotel at 1220 Ocean Drive. The ruling is the latest in the case pitting an affiliate of Safe Harbor Equity against New York-based Chetrit. Safe Harbor Equity sued CG Tides and other Chetrit entities, as well as Meyer Chetrit…

Residential rental demand in Miami stays hot

Overall, the Miami residential rental market remains very hot and housing is still in high demand, according to local real estate experts. Inventory levels are continuing to remain low because Miami-Dade is a beneficiary of both domestic and foreign immigration, said Carlos… “We have our own little kind of micro-economy…”

First Glass Installed At 648-Foot Miami River Tower

The ellipse shape of the 54-story, 648-foot Miami River tower can now clearly be seen, and glass is being installed, new photos by Phillip Pessar show. The Kobi Karp-designed building will become the westernmost tower in Miami to surpass the 600-foot mark. The phase currently under construction will include 632 apartments, retail space, and a public riverfront…

Miami Worldcenter advances on several fronts

Miami Worldcenter, one of the largest private urban real estate developments in Florida at the heart of downtown Miami, is advancing on several phases for its 27 acres of office space, retail, residential and hotel, with the addition of a new site and the completion of its 80,000-square-foot retail building. Miami Worldcenter – a $4 billion mixed-use project, developed by Miami…

As inflation rise slows, investment questions remain

In the smallest 12-month rise since last December, the Consumer Price Index report issued Tuesday slowed to a 7.1% increase through November, from 7.7% in October and 8.2% in September, but the Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 75 basis points in November for the fourth time in a row, making goods and property less affordable. According to the…

Evolve doubles down on apartment development in Wynwood Norte

Evolve Companies is doubling down on Miami’s Wynwood Norte district. The company wants to build an 11-story building with 105 apartments at 475 Northwest 36th Street, just a block north of its other rental project in the pipeline, John McDonald, Evolve’s development manager, told The Real Deal via email. Evolve recently…

Sale-leaseback: Stockbridge picks up John Deere site in Miami-Dade for $20M

In a sale-leaseback deal, Stockbridge Capital Group picked up a John Deere dealership in northwest Miami-Dade County. The purchase pumps up its South Florida industrial portfolio for the second time in a two-month span. An affiliate of San Francisco-based Stockbridge paid $20.1 million for the 5.6-acre property at 4343 Northwest 77th Avenue, according to…

Lease roundup: Aldi to open near MIA; more…

German supermarket chain Aldi will open a store at the Midway Crossings shopping plaza near Miami International Airport. Aldi has a 20-year ground lease for the property at 7797 West Flagler Street in an unincorporated area of Miami-Dade County, where the supermarket chain is building a nearly 20,000-square-foot store… West Palm Beach-based Sterling Organization…

Miami Beach board to vote on Shvo’s office project and Witkoff’s Shore Club

A pair of major redevelopment projects in Miami Beach are up for consideration by the city’s Historic Preservation Board next week. Michael Shvo, who is developing three office projects in Miami Beach, is seeking approval to redevelop the iconic clock office tower at 407 Lincoln Road. And a partnership between…

Terra, Shoma partner on rentals in Miami-Dade’s Fontainebleau

Terra and Shoma Group propose an apartment complex in the Fontainebleau neighborhood west of Miami International Airport. The duo submitted plans for a 375-unit garden-style community on 17 acres that the developers own on the southwest corner of Northwest 87th Avenue and the Dolphin Expressway, according to an application filed to Miami-Dade County last week.

CGI Merchant allegedly owes vendors more than $200K: lawsuits

CGI Merchant Group was hit with four lawsuits over a six-month period, alleging non-payment of nearly $210,000 in bills for property management, security and other services. JLL, The Water Restoration Group, Cintas Corporation and Security Management Innovations are separately suing the Miami-based real estate investment firm and its affiliates in Miami-Dade…

Video: Kendall Capital CEO Clark Kendall Discusses Investing Climate Given Rising Rates & Inflation

Clark Kendall, President and CEO of Kendall Capital, which refers to itself a wealth management firm providing investment and financial planning services for middle-class millionaires, joins America’s Commercial Real Estate Show host Michael Bull to provide some perspective on the current market as well as strategies for investors. He begins by defining where…

Affordable Housing Community Opens in Liberty City

Miami-Dade County, the City of Miami, the Florida Housing Finance Corporation, Citi Community Capital and Wells Fargo, have completed Residences at Dr. King Boulevard, a 120-unit affordable housing community in Miami. An opening ceremony is scheduled for December 12th. Residences at Dr. King Boulevard will serve households…

FAA Approves 888 Brickell Supertall

Another Brickell supertall has just been approved by the Federal Aviation Administration. 888 Brickell will be permitted to rise to a supertall height of 1,042 feet above ground level, or 1,049 feet above sea level, according to a letter issued by the agency. Approval by the FAA was granted on December 9 after around 8 months of review. The application was filed on March 31.

Miami Multifamily Report October 2022: South Florida cools to sustainable growth rate

Miami rent evolution, click to enlarge Following an exceptional performance in 2021, South Florida’s multifamily market cooled to a more sustainable pace of growth. Overall rents grew 0.4 percent on a trailing three-month basis through August—20 basis points behind the U.S. rate—to $2,344. Year-over-year among large U.S. metros, only Orlando (16.9 percent) posted…

Investor alleges Chetrit cut it out of Hollywood Beach deal

An investor alleges New York megadeveloper Joseph Chetrit and a Miami attorney conspired to cut it out of a lucrative deal to redevelop the Hollywood Beach Resort. Miami-based private equity real estate firm EquiShares, led by CEO Matt Press, alleges it brought Chetrit and his firm Chetrit Group into a deal to form a partnership that would redevelop the oceanfront condo…

Robot Concierges, Yacht Drop-Off And Mark Wahlberg: How Miami Hotels Are Competing For ‘Bleisure’ Travelers

As Miami’s business community has experienced explosive growth, so has business travel to the city, and to ensure new visitors take home a memorable experience from the Magic City, hoteliers are continuing to try to outdo each other on amenities and offerings.Part of why, hotel industry insiders said last week at Bisnow’s State of Florida and Caribbean Hotels event…

Altman scores $75M construction loan for Kendall multifamily project

Altman Companies expects to break ground soon on a Kendall multifamily project after securing the land and a $75 million construction loan. The Fort Lauderdale-based development firm, led by co-CEOs Joel Altman and Seth Wise, paid $14.3 million for a nearly 12-acre vacant tract at 9501 Southwest 137th Avenue, according to Vizzda and records.

Moishe Mana scores $275M credit line for Wynwood portfolio

Moishe Mana secured a $275 million line of credit for a portion of his Wynwood portfolio, which could be a sign that he plans to redevelop the properties. A Mana affiliate borrowed $58.2 million from the credit line, records show. Centennial Bank is the lender. It’s collateralized by the properties surrounding his Mana Wynwood Convention Center, but the loan…

Video: Billionaire breakup: Related moguls split up

The partnership between two of the country’s megadevelopers, Jorge Pérez and Steve Ross, has come to an end. Ross, whose New York-based Related Companies has been expanding in South Florida, dropped a bombshell this week about the split with Pérez’s Related Group. The Real Deal‘s Katherine Kallergis, who broke the news of the split, spoke with Hiten Samtani…

URBIN Miami Beach Breaks Ground, With All 69 Units Sold Out

Location Ventures – the Miami-based, integrated real estate firm that delivers thoughtfully-designed and fully-connected real estate projects – announced today the groundbreaking of URBIN Miami Beach. The milestone marks construction commencement for the first-to-market, mixed-use brand that unites design-forward residences for short- or long-term rental with…

Miami-Dade Leaders Are on Their Knees Begging Elon Musk to Move Twitter to Miami

Ever since Twitter boss Elon Musk publicly aired his frustration with the company’s current home of San Francisco, Miami-Dade leaders have begun to collectively roll out the red carpet for the tech giant. Last week, a few hours after Musk fumed on Twitter about an investigation by San Francisco’s building department into the company converting space at its headquarters…

Sale Of Miami Gardens Distribution Center Negotiated

SATCO Lighting built the facility at 900 Northwest 159th Drive within Sunshine State Industrial Park for its own use in 1976. After leasing space in the area to accommodate overflow, the company needed a long-term solution and greater storage capacity. Fortunately, EastGroup Properties was constructing Gateway Commerce Park within very close proximity.

Crystal Cruises Inks 15K-SQ Lease for HQ in Aventura

Crystal Cruises signed a 15,206-square-foot lease at the Optima Office Campus in Aventura, Fla., according to the company’s brokers. Crystal Cruises’ new office, located on the 15th floor of the 28-story Optima Onyx Tower, will house the company’s headquarters. While the company builds out the space, it will be based elsewhere in the Optima campus.

This Week’s South Florida Deal Sheet

An Ohio multifamily investor has acquired two apartment complexes totaling 371 units in Miramar for $138M, The Real Deal reports. The Connor Group bought the properties, which sit on 28 acres, from North Carolina-based Bell Partners, assuming a $54M loan in the transaction. The financing was raised to $87M for the properties — the Grand Riviera Miramar…

Florida Developers Are Holding Off on Big Projects as Insurance Costs Surge

David Lynd, a San Antonio-based developer of large-scale apartment buildings, had been expanding his business in South Florida. But recently, he decided to put one of his new projects on hold. There’s no problem with demand. People in tech, finance and other businesses are pouring into the area, looking for a home to rent. It is the cost of insurance for commercial…

CitizenM to open three hotels next year, including at Miami Worldcenter

The brand’s second hotel in Miami will open at the Worldcenter, following the opening of citizenM Miami Brickell in July of this year. Surrounded by a mix of retail, hospitality and entertainment spaces, citizenM Miami Worldcenter is centrally placed within the business and financial hub of the city. The building will feature a series of sculptures placed across the facade…

Mainstreet wins approval for 30-story rental tower in Flagler Village

Mainstreet Capital Partners’ proposed 30-story apartment development  near downtown Fort Lauderdale won approval despite some design features that deviate from city standards. Fort Lauderdale-based Mainstreet is planning the 270-unit multifamily project, called Flagler Sky View. It will be in the Flagler Village area just north of downtown Fort Lauderdale…

NuRock advances affordable housing development in Hollywood

NuRock Companies is moving forward with its proposed affordable housing development in Hollywood with 134 apartments for low-income tenants. The Hollywood City Commission voted Wednesday to lend $640,000 to NuRock in support of the developer’s application to Florida Housing Finance Corporation for federal low-income housing tax credits…

Connor drops $138M for pair of Miramar rental complexes

Prolific multifamily investor The Connor Group now has its own slice of South Florida’s booming rental market. Dayton, Ohio-based Connor paid $138 million in two deals for a pair of adjacent apartment complexes at 11900 Southwest 31st Court and 3040 Southwest 119th Avenue, according to records and real estate database Vizzda. Greensboro…

GL Homes pays $35M for lots at Avenir in Palm Beach Gardens

GL Homes paid $35.3 million for land at the massive Avenir in Palm Beach Gardens. The Sunrise-based firm scooped up 337 home lots roughly at the northwest corner of Avenir Drive and Coconut Boulevard, according to records. The seller is the community’s master developer, Avenir Development, which ties to Coral Gables-based family-owned firm Landstar…

Cardone’s Lake Worth workforce housing complex found overcharging tenants

A Lake Worth apartment complex owned by Grant Cardone that is Palm Beach County’s largest supplier of workforce housing was found to have overcharged tenants for years. Wellington Club, the Cardone Capital-owned apartments at 9855 Herons Nest Court, left workforce units vacant and overcharged eligible tenants, according to an investigation by the…

Capital Square buys Parkland apartments for $155M

The Bell Parkland apartment complex at 5851 Holmberg Road in Parkland: Bell Partners sold an apartment complex in Parkland for $155 million, marking the third time this month that the firm has cashed out of a Broward County multifamily property. Capital Square, a firm focused on tax-beneficial investments such as 1031 exchange…

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December 14, 2022

Video: Kendall Capital CEO Clark Kendall Discusses Investing Climate Given Rising Rates & Inflation

In a world of shifting economic tides and turbulent markets, staying afloat in the realm of commercial real estate requires a steady hand and a keen eye for opportunity. This sentiment was at the forefront of a recent conversation on America’s Commercial Real Estate Show, where the show host engaged in a thought-provoking dialogue with Clark Kendall, President and CEO of Kendall Capital.

The discussion kicked off with a reflection on the current economic landscape, with a particular focus on rising interest rates. Against the backdrop of unprecedented events such as the global pandemic, Kendall emphasized the importance of taking a step back to assess the bigger picture. He outlined how the Federal Reserve’s response to the pandemic, characterized by historically low interest rates, had spurred economic recovery but also set the stage for the current trajectory of rising rates.

As the conversation unfolded, Kendall provided insights into how investors should navigate these challenging times. He underscored the significance of understanding the relationship between interest rates and various asset classes, emphasizing that even a slight increase in rates could impact investment returns significantly. Kendall’s advice centered on maintaining a focus on the fundamentals of cash flow and the long-term viability of investments.

Hawkins Commercial Realty has delved into the topic of the relationship between rates and other commercial real estate affecting variables in posts including Chart of Diminished Small Business CRE Buying Power Given Higher Interest RatesConsidering Cap Rates and Potential Effects on Values as the Interest Rate Environment ChangesQuantifying the Effect of Rent Growth Assumptions on Commercial Real Estate Cap RatesThe Leveraging Effect of Occupancy/Vacancy on NOI, and other analytical posts.

The discussion also delved into the performance of different sectors within commercial real estate, ranging from retail and office spaces to industrial properties. Kendall’s insights highlighted the varying dynamics at play within each sector and underscored the importance of adaptability in response to evolving market conditions.

One key takeaway from the conversation was the notion of seizing opportunities amidst market volatility. Kendall likened the current economic climate to a storm, suggesting that while some may retreat in fear, astute investors see it as a chance to capitalize on undervalued assets. He emphasized the importance of strategic portfolio management, which involves both identifying promising investment prospects and divesting from overvalued assets.

Throughout the exchange, Kendall’s perspective as an independent investor and advisor offered valuable insights into the mindset and strategies necessary to thrive in today’s commercial real estate landscape. His nuanced understanding of market dynamics, coupled with a focus on long-term value creation, provided a roadmap for investors navigating uncertain waters.

As the conversation drew to a close, Bull and Kendall emphasized the need for resilience and agility in the face of adversity. Kendall’s parting words echoed a sentiment of cautious optimism, urging investors to embrace the challenges of the present moment while keeping an eye on the opportunities that lie ahead.

The discussion provided some perspective on the current market as well as strategies for investors. Kendall begins by defining where we are at and how this fits into the history of recessions, referring to this as a “healthy recession.” He notes that real estate and stocks outperform cash over time, going on to comment that investors needs to change their time horizon. This is a steady and grounded discussion of the current investment climate for commercial property as well as other asset classes.

In conclusion, the dialogue offered a compelling exploration of the economic forces shaping the commercial real estate market. Through the lens of experienced industry professionals like Clark Kendall, viewers gained valuable insights into effective strategies for navigating volatile market conditions and positioning themselves for success in the long term.

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December 9, 2022

Miami Commercial Real Estate News December 7, 2022: Miami Worldcenter Delivers 80K SF Retail Building; Doral Shops Trades for $57M; 261 Apartments Proposed Near Brightline Aventura; More…

Square Mile Originates $185M Refi for Miami Asset

Bezel Miami. Image courtesy of Square Mile Capital Management Square Mile Capital Management has originated $185 million in refinancing for Bezel Miami, a 43-story, Class A multifamily community in Miami, within the $4 billion mixed-use development Miami Worldcenter. ZOM Living is the owner of the asset, which came online at the end of last year, with Stantec…

Moishe Mana Nabs $275M Credit Line for Wynwood Assemblage

Real estate investor Moishe Mana scored $275 million in financing for his Wynwood portfolio, property records show. The financing from Centennial Commercial Finance Group provided Mana a $275 million line of credit — of which he’s drawn down an initial $58 million loan, according to mortgage documents. The portfolio spans 17 low-rise properties in the southwest section…

Miami Worldcenter Associates, CIM Deliver 80,000 SF Retail Building, Future Home of Bowlero and Sports & Social

Miami Worldcenter Associates and partner CIM Group have delivered Block F-East, an 80,000-square-foot “jewel box” retail building within the $4 billion Miami Worldcenter campus in downtown Miami. The standalone, glass-encased building marks one of the last retail components to be delivered as part of the 27-acre mixed-use development. The building, which will be…

Retail investors pay $57M for Doral shopping center

Miami-based retail investors Domenico Albano and Americo D’Agostini paid $57 million for Doral shopping center anchored by a Navarro Discount Pharmacy store. Sofi Retails, a real estate investment firm managed by Albano and D’Agostini, acquired Doral Shops, a two-story retail plaza at 11402 Northwest 41st Street, according to a press release. Albano and D’Agostino…

$57M Sale of Doral Shops Brokered

Built in 2002 on nearly six acres, the shopping center was 99 percent leased at the time of sale to Navarro Discount Pharmacy, as well as 12 restaurants and several service-oriented tenants on the ground floor. The second floor of Doral Shops, which spans roughly 40,000 square feet, houses service retailers and some offices. Scott Sandelin and Edward Romo of…

Fortis CEO launches own firm, Landau Properties, plans Bay Harbor project

Jonathan Landau has stepped down as CEO of the luxury property developer Fortis Property Group to start his own firm. The former chief executive is launching Landau Properties, a new real estate venture that will look to acquire and operate properties in New York, South Florida and Boston. Landau will be joined by daughter Yaeli and son-in-law DC Lowinger. “I’ve always…”

Billionaire Stephen Ross confirms split with Pérez as both firms expand in South Florida

Billionaire developer Stephen Ross was ahead of the curve when he first invested in South Florida real estate in 1979 with his partner, Jorge Pérez. But more recently, Ross, chairman of New York-based Related Companies, and Pérez, chairman of Miami-based Related Group, have gone their separate ways. Without naming the firm, Ross said at a ULI event in Miami…

Z Capital slapped with $16M verdict in Carillon Miami Beach lawsuit

Z Capital Group was hit with a $16.3 million verdict for overcharging assessments to condo owners at the Carillon Miami Wellness Resort. A jury on Tuesday determined that for the past seven years James Zenni Jr.’s Z Capital levied inflated dues to unit owners at the oceanfront Miami Beach condo-hotel for the spa, hotel and electricity, according to the verdict…

Moinian nabs $185M refi for Miami Worldcenter apartment tower

The Moinian Group refinanced its Miami Worldcenter multifamily skyscraper with a $185 million loan. New York-based Square Mile Capital Management provided the mortgage for Bezel Miami, a 43-story tower with 434 apartments at 650 Northeast Second Avenue in Miami, according to records. Drew Fletcher with Greystone and Robert Kaplan with Cushman…

Miami-Dade dev flurry: BH eyes Ojus rentals, Prologis bets on Beacon Lakes expansion

Developers in Miami-Dade County are betting on two asset classes that remain in high demand despite broad economic shifts: multifamily and industrial. The latest proposals filed to the county show that developers are planning apartments, including affordable units. Also, industrial giant Prologis wants to add more space at its already massive Beacon Lakes business…

Mortgage applications decline even as rates fall again

Mortgage applications continued their downward swing last week, but lower rates are sparking activity in the refinancing market. Applications declined 1.9 percent from a week earlier, the Mortgage Bankers Association revealed on Wednesday. The decline for the week ending Dec. 2 came even as mortgage rates continued to slip, down 73 basis points from a month…

Hidrock, Grupo Portland plan 400-unit rental tower in North Miami Beach

Hidrock Properties and Argentine developer Grupo Portland plan to develop a rental tower in North Miami Beach after finalizing their joint venture. The 50-50 partners began the entitlement process for the 20-story building at 1700 Northeast 164th Street and could break ground in 2024, said Hidrock’s Chief Investment Officer Eddie Hidary. Hidrock, led by Eddie, Abraham…

The Access playbook: Inside billionaire Blavatnik’s real estate ambitions in Miami and elsewhere

When Ziel Feldman’s HFZ Capital Group paid $870 million for a site on Manhattan’s High Line to build a luxury condo project, Jonah Sonnenborn was perplexed by the then-record price, which came out to more than $1,000 per square foot. “We bid roughly half of what HFZ acquired it for,” said Sonnenborn, the head of real estate at Access Industries. “We couldn’t…”

Mixed-use Allapattah project gets a city green light

A sprawling mixed-use residential building is proposed for the Allapattah neighborhood of Miami. Developer-owner Allapattah Investors LLC proposes the eight-story project for the southwest corner of Northwest 20th Street and 14th Avenue. Called Legacy 20th Street, the multi-family development will be home to 289 residential units, 3,750 square feet of retail, and 368 parking spaces…

Miami-Dade Courthouse opening target January 2024

Completion of the new Miami-Dade County Courthouse, in theory at least, is scheduled for Jan. 24, 2024, according to Alex A. Alfonso, acting assistant director of the Miami-Dade Internal Services Department. The exact project completion date continues to be negotiated, Mr. Alfonso said, “and has not been finalized.” The anticipated price is holding steady at $262,767,000.

Hotels partner to upgrade Lincoln Road

A beautification project to improve unkempt areas on the east end of Lincoln Road between the commercial district and the beach walk is advancing with the help of the owners of the Ritz-Carlton and the Sagamore South Beach hotels, who are investing millions of dollars. The owners of the Ritz-Carlton, at 1 Lincoln Road, and the Sagamore South Beach, at 1671 Collins Avenue

New Miami-Dade Commission Juan Carlos Bermudez: Targeting affordable housing, transit and economic growth

Juan Carlos Bermudez has just joined the Miami-Dade County Commission as District 12 representative. As founding mayor of Doral, his list of public service accomplishments is long, but just in his past term the city earned a triple Certification on Data for Smart, Sustainable and Resilient Cities from the World Council on City Data.  He also led efforts to win approval from voters…

Blue Vista JV to Redevelop Florida Site Into Self Storage

Blue Vista Capital Management and H&M Development have partnered for the first time to redevelop a 100,000-square-foot recreational facility into a 962-unit self storage facility in Hialeah Gardens, Fla. The joint venture acquired the property from Triangle Soccer LLC for an undisclosed price. Fried, Frank, Harris, Shriver & Jacobson LLP’s Steven Rudgayzer advised H&M Development…

Jesta joins rental frenzy in new plans for North Bay Village Shuckers site

Jesta Group doesn’t want to miss out on South Florida’s booming multifamily market. Jesta revised its two-year-old development plan for the Shuckers Waterfront Grill site in North Bay Village, dropping significantly the number of planned hotel rooms in favor of apartments, according to filings with the city. Plans now call for a 30-story tower with 345 rentals and 245 hotel keys…

Bal Harbour Shops allegedly owes subcontractor roughly $1M: lawsuit

A subcontractor is suing Bal Harbour Shops over an unpaid construction bill totaling nearly $1 million. Medley-based Solution Construction sued the luxury shopping center three weeks ago in Miami-Dade Circuit Court, alleging Bal Harbour Shops owes $966,000 for an entryway and a garage ramp the subcontractor built. Solution’s attorney and a spokesperson…

Lease roundup: Hollo’s FECR moves, Sternlicht’s building nabs tenants

Florida East Coast Realty I Brickell | Miami The Hollo family’s Florida East Coast Realty moved its headquarters of 30 years in downtown Miami to nearby Brickell. The real estate firm, which Tibor Hollo founded more than 60 years ago, leased the entire 17th floor spanning 8,500 square feet at 1101 Brickell Avenue, according to a company news release. FECR’s…

Hawkins Way Capital sells Clifton Hotel in South Beach

Real estate investment firm Hawkins Way Capital sold the Clifton Hotel in South Beach, adding to a slew of recent hospitality sales. Records show the Los Angeles-based company sold the 35-key, 10,400-square-foot hotel at 1343 Collins Avenue in Miami Beach. The buyer is Jerusalem Group LLC, a Florida entity managed by Omar Limon. Limon is a Miami resident with…

Chetrit nabs $83M construction loan for Collins Park project

Chetrit Group got a financial boost for its Collins Park Hotel project, nabbing a $82.5 million construction loan. Kawa, a Hallandale Beach-based international asset manager, provided the financing, according to a spokesperson for Henry Bodek of New York-based Galaxy Capital, which brokered the loan. The new mortgage replaces a $62.5 million construction loan provided…

UDB battle not over: Megaproject opponents take fight to state

Mayor Daniella Levine Cava along with a rendering of the planned megaproject outside Miami-Dade County’s Urban Development Boundary: A controversial megaproject planned outside Miami-Dade County’s Urban Development Boundary faces new opposition. In the latest move, a resident is asking the state to review commissioners’ recent approval of the UDB expansion.

AN Editor Notes; Lessons from a crypto meltdown

Stuart Elliott It feels like a Madoff-meets-millennial moment.  The crypto party has come crashing down with the spectacular collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency exchange. The fallout will be huge, with the company owing customers more than $8 billion.  How exposed will real estate be? Not very, it seems — even condo…

Joint Venture Acquires Last Parcel Within Miami Worldcenter Campus for $17.5M, Plans Residential Tower

A joint venture between Aria Development Group and Merrimac Ventures has purchased the last available parcel within the 27-acre Miami Worldcenter campus, a $4 billion mixed-use development by Miami Worldcenter Associates. The site, located one block from Brightline Miami Central at 33-55 N.W. 6th St., is known as The Miami Link. Jack Lowell, Cecillia Estevez and…

Native American tribe under contract to buy Magic City Casino

After holding on to Magic City Casino for 71 years, the Havenick family is ready to cash in its chips. The owners of the gambling facility at 450 Northwest 37th Avenue in Miami have entered into a deal to sell the former greyhound racing site to the Alabama-based Poarch Band of Creek Indians, The Miami Herald reported, citing an application recently submitted…

Brightline effect: Karsenti plans rentals next to Aventura stop

13th Floor Investments’ Arnaud Karsenti along with a rendering of the planned 350-unit apartment building at 19680-19770 West Dixie Highway: Arnaud Karsenti’s 13th Floor Investments wants a piece of the booming real estate market around the Brightline Aventura Station. The Coconut Grove-based firm is the prospective buyer of 2.4 acres of land just south of the soon-to-open…

Trump Group sues Suffolk again over delays at Sunny Isles project

The Trump Group reopened its lawsuit against its general contractor, Suffolk Construction, over delays at the $1.8 billion Estates at Acqualina project, months after the two companies entered into a settlement agreement. Affiliates of the Sunny Isles Beach developer, led by brothers Jules and Eddie Trump, filed an amended complaint against Suffolk last month seeking more…

Inside an Israeli billionaire’s Miami gamble

Teddy Sagi sits back on his white couch, his high-rise apartment window framing Dubai’s palm tree-lined Jumeirah Bay, and says he’s not the guy to ask for the details. Even though the Israeli billionaire is backing major new developments in South Florida, he’s worlds away. Inquire about those projects, and he can’t tell you much. “There’s no transaction in Miami …”

Z Capital allegedly owes $2M legal bill: lawsuit

Akerman says Z Capital Group needs to pay up. The law firm is allegeding that the New York-based merchant bank owes $2.2 million in legal fees for a pair of lawsuits involving a MIami Beach condo-hotel. Akerman is suing Z Capital and its entity that owns a majority of the Carillon Miami Wellness Resort at 6801 Collins Avenue, according to a Nov. 16 complaint filed in…

Doral Industrial Trades For $18.1 Million

Doral Industrial, a 93,046-square-foot industrial building in Miami, traded for $18.1 million. “Built in 1983, Doral Industrial sits on just over 4.5 acres and consists of 26 suites,” said Michael Alaoui, senior associate in Marcus & Millichap’s Miami office. “This well-maintained asset benefits from the neighboring demographics, which include a five-mile radius population of 428,000. […]…

Video: Macro Trend Advisors Founding Partner Mitch Roschelle Discusses Economic Outlook

Mitch Roschelle, Macro Trend Advisors Founding Partner, joins America’s Commercial Real Estate Show to discuss the current economy and expectations for it in the future and its effect on commercial real estate. Topics discussed include rising interest rates, trends in cap rates, and potential opportunities in commercial real estate. He begins by discussing the Fed’s efforts…

Cohen, Bouskila propose 261 apartments near Brightline’s Aventura stop

Developers want to build an apartment project near the Brightline Aventura Station, marking the latest proposal near a South Florida passenger train stop. Yakov Cohen and Shimon Bouskila filed plans for a 15-story building with 261 units and some retail on the site of an Aventura industrial complex… The 2-acre site is at 2655-2660 Northeast 189th Street. A few blocks to the north…

Aria, Merrimac nab Miami Worldcenter site for $18M

Aria Development Group and Merrimac Ventures are planning a new Miami Worldcenter condominium project after acquiring a redevelopment site for $17.5 million. The joint venture acquired the International Longshoremen’s Association’s former Miami headquarters at 33-55 Northwest Sixth Street for $11 million from the labor union, records show. Aria…

South Florida Experts Weigh In With 2023 Regional Real Estate Forecasts

Office building owners have it tough nationwide, but in South Florida the migration of companies to the Sunshine State coupled with limited trophy office supply should send rents higher. Limited land for new beachfront projects in Miami-Dade County will propel developers north to Fort Lauderdale and vicinity. And the countries of origin acquiring South Florida real estate…

Weekend Interview: Turnberry Associates Chairman And CEO Jackie Soffer

Jackie Soffer is chairman and CEO of Turnberry Associates, a real estate development firm that has become synonymous with some of Miami’s most iconic properties. Soffer, whose mantra is “Be the reason someone believes in good people,” is passionate about community-building and feels that great retail is part of the thread that makes up each community’s…

When the Fed’s no longer a friend; Rising interest rates force lenders to the sidelines

Two years ago, the Federal Reserve was purchasing billions in mortgage-backed securities, reducing the rate it charged banks for loans and relaxing regulations on banks. The policies led to an era of nearly free money for real estate players, and spurred a dealmaking bonanza. Now, some see the Fed as the problem. It increased rates to 4 percent from near zero…

How commercial real estate players use interest rate swaps and caps

In the months after the Federal Reserve started hiking interest rates, Manhattan’s largest office landlord went out and hedged more than $3 billion of debt to protect against what it sees as the biggest threat to its balance sheet: rising borrowing costs. “Needless to say, that’s far and away the most we’ve ever done in a year,” said Matthew DiLiberto, CFO at SL Green Realty.

Scamsters paradise: The most audacious real estate cons of the past decade; Many start in Miami, but they rarely stop there

An enterprising scammer looking for an industry in which to make a mark — or find one — could do a lot worse than real estate. In the past year alone, authorities have revealed high-profile cases of money laundering in a never-ending game of Whack-a-Mole. Real estate moguls make their bones with chutzpah, confidence and persuasion. Perhaps that’s why a business that’s minted…

Kodsi’s Royal Palm scores $77M construction loan for Dania Beach project

A planned Dania Beach multifamily project got a construction boost after developer Royal Palm Companies secured a $76.5 million loan. 3650 REIT provided the financing for Royal Palm’s Elevate Apartments, an eight-story rental building with 293 units under development at 600 East Dania Beach Boulevard, records show. The mortgage replaces a $64.7 million construction loan…

3650 REIT Originates $77M Construction Loan in Dania Beach

Royal Palm Cos. has secured a $76.5 million construction loan from 3650 REIT to finance the completion of Elevate Apartments, a 293-unit, eight-story multifamily property in Dania Beach, Fla. The building at 560 E. Dania Beach Blvd. broke ground in the fourth quarter of 2021 and is approximately 45 percent completed. It is scheduled for delivery in November 2023. Royal Palm…

TPG, Value Store It pay $19M for Weston self-storage facility

TPG Real Estate Partners teamed up with Value Store It to buy a self-storage facility in Weston for $18.5 million. The joint venture paid roughly $25,000 per unit for the three-story building at 2400 Glades Circle, according to Vizzda and records. The seller, a joint venture between Chicago-based Harrison Street Real Estate Capital and Northfield, Illinois…

Criminally charged ex-West Palm club owner’s properties face forfeiture

A former owner of a West Palm Beach hangout who is accused of running an illegal gambling and prostitution ring could end up losing $1.6 million in real estate if he’s convicted. Dion De Cesare, who previously owned Renegades restaurant and nightclub, has been slapped with multiple charges, prompting prosecutors to seek the forfeiture of nine of his properties. They include…

Affiliated aiming higher on West Palm rental project

Affiliated Development is raising the roof on its plans for a multifamily project in West Palm Beach, literally. The firm now wants to build an eight-story, 270-unit apartment building on the land at 2501 Spruce Avenue and adjacent parcels in the Northwood district, which is bigger than the previous plan for a six-story, 200-unit project, according to city records.

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December 7, 2022

Video: Macro Trend Advisors Founding Partner Mitch Roschelle Discusses Economic Outlook

Mitch Roschelle, Macro Trend Advisors Founding Partner, joins America’s Commercial Real Estate Show to discuss the current economy and expectations for it in the future and its effect on commercial real estate. Topics discussed include rising interest rates, trends in cap rates, and potential opportunities in commercial real estate. He begins by discussing the Fed’s efforts, first discussing raises in the Fed Funds rate, then moving on to the unwinding of the balance sheet. He moves on to discuss the suppressive effective this has on the lending environment. As the video progresses, he discusses the state of various commercial property types and expectations for the future.

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December 1, 2022

Miami Commercial Real Estate News November 30, 2022: Waterfront Dev Site Hits Market at $1B; 3 Towers Project Approved for Biscayne Blvd; More…

Genting wants over $1B for waterfront Miami site

Malaysian gambling operator Genting Group is looking to cash in on its bet on Miami — while holding onto some of its chips. Genting is seeking more than $1 billion for its 15.5-acre waterfront assemblage, Bloomberg reported and sources confirmed to The Real Deal. The land at 1431 North Bayshore Drive in downtown Miami’s Arts & Entertainment District represents…

Genting Seeking $1B or More for Some Miami Property Holdings

Malaysian conglomerate Genting Berhad is reportedly marketing some of its Miami property holdings at north of $1 billion. That’s as the company focuses on other casino gaming ventures in the US.Genting is looking to sell 16.5 acres of prime, undeveloped real estate along Biscayne Bay if it’s able to command $1 billion or more. It will have more than quadrupled its investment after…

Bazbaz buys Wynwood development site for mixed-use project

Bazbaz Development can finally scratch a seven-year itch and move forward on a mixed-use project that’s been in the works in Wynwood. An affiliate of the New York-based developer paid $12 million for 1.5 acres at 2134 North Miami Avenue, records show. The seller is an entity managed by Brett Lang, a commercial real estate…

Treo sells Hialeah warehouses, doubles its investment

Interest rates are rising, recession fears abound and some property types are experiencing a decline in investment sales. None of this concerns South Florida’s industrial market. Case in point: Treo Group sold an industrial property in Hialeah at 1100 East 41st Street, as well as at 4005, 3965 and 3925 East 10th Court, for $19 million, or more than double what the Miami-based firm…

Hyatt Plans to Acquire Dream Hotel Group for $125M

Chicago-based Hyatt Hotel Corp. (NYSE: H) has agreed to acquire Dream Hotel Group’s lifestyle hotel brand and management platform, including the Dream Hotels, The Chatwal Hotels and Unscripted Hotels brands. Upon closing, Hyatt will pay a base purchase price of $125 million, plus up to an additional $175 million over the next six years as new developments open.

South Florida by the numbers: Art Basel at 20

“South Florida by the numbers” is a web feature that catalogs the most notable, quirky and surprising real estate statistics. The incomparable Art Basel (and Miami Art Week) return this week, marking the true start of “the season” with a fantastic cornucopia of festivals, exhibitions, conferences, dinners, and parties. Celebrating its 20th anniversary…

Lawsuit targets Miami Beach deal with Bulgari hotel developers

Miami Beach’s deal to hand over a public right-of-way to the Bulgari hotel developers violated the city charter, a recent lawsuit alleges. The lawsuit, filed against the city of Miami Beach in Miami-Dade Circuit Court two weeks ago, claims government officials unlawfully sold the public right-of-way for $7.4 million so the developer could increase the footprint of the proposed…

Three-tower project OK’d for Biscayne Boulevard

A new set of mixed-use residential towers and a companion office building are proposed for Biscayne Boulevard, to be known as 3333 Biscayne. Owner-developer 3333 Biscayne Boulevard LLC plans to build the structures at 3333 Biscayne Boulevard and 300 NE 34th St. in Edgewater. The city’s Urban Development Review Board recommended approval. The residential towers…

Tri-Rail tearing down nine barriers to enter downtown Miami

Nine hurdles stalling the $70 million project to bring Tri-Rail trains into Miami Central Station are being cleared, says David Dech, executive director of the South Florida Regional Transport Authority, long after the original completion date of 2017. Several factors have delayed completion of a link to the Brightline station. The tax-funded project is to add more…

Mega Signature Bridge project now targets delayed 2026 finish

Construction has begun on massive and distinctive arches that will support the new “Signature Bridge” coming to life on I-395 in the heart of Downtown Miami. The Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) reports continued progress on the sprawling I-395/SR 836/I-95 Design-Build Project, a partnership between FDOT and the Miami-Dade Expressway Authority and…

Shake-a-Leg gets 25 more years to serve handicapped on bayfront

Shake-A-Leg Miami, a non-profit striving to give disabled and disadvantaged communities access to adaptable water sports, renewed its license with the City of Miami and will stay afloat at its prime bayfront location in Coconut Grove. Shake-A-Leg’s license agreement for use of city-owned waterfront at 2620 S Bayshore Drive was to expire 30 years after the non-profit found a…

Developers, brokers pursue wealthy art buyers during Miami Art Week

It’s that time of year: Developers and brokers throughout the Miami area are once again tapping into the art world in the hopes that wealthy buyers will open up their wallets to purchase real estate. The Related Group, Dezer Development, Douglas Elliman, One Sotheby’s International Realty, and projects like Miami Worldcenter and Standard Residences are hosting…

$4B Miami Worldcenter Debuts Public Art Program Ahead Of Art Basel

The developers of the $4B Miami Worldcenter project launched a 27-acre outdoor museum as Art Basel and Miami Art Week festivities take over Magic City for the next month. The $5M outdoor museum stretches along Northeast Second Avenue in Downtown Miami. Curated by international art dealer and curator Jeffrey Deitch and Miami art curatorial collective Primary…

South Florida Self-Storage Performance Signals Continued Robust Growth

Self-storage properties in Florida throughout the third quarter maintained a good velocity in sales, as sellers rushed to close deals before interest rates were raised further. And though economic headwinds impacted rent, sale price and occupancy, seller sentiment with regards to cash flow or profits was positive. Properties maintained high occupancy rates, coming in at 93 percent…

Alta kicks off plans for second rental building near Dadeland Mall

Alta Developers is diving into the final portion of its multifamily project near Dadeland Mall. Raimundo Onetto’s firm filed plans for a second 18-story building directly south of its first that’s under construction at 9600 South Dixie Highway, according to the application submitted to Miami-Dade County last week. The 2-acre development site is in an unincorporated…

Video: CCIM Economist KC Conway Discusses What Lies Ahead

KC Conway, aka The Red Shoe Economist, joins Americas Commercial Real Estate Show to discuss expectations for interest rates, pricing discovery, and opportunities in the current commercial property market. The discussion begins with frustration expressed about the Fed’s actions to date. He notes that the Fed is essentially, by its actions, telling lenders to quit lending because…

The Fed’s Beige Book: Tepid Growth, Tough Times for Low-Income Households

Economic activity in the Southeast grew tepidly during October and the first half of November, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s new Beige Book collection of anecdotal reports from business contacts. Labor market conditions remained tight, though pressures eased somewhat, contacts reported. Nevertheless, many executives said attracting and retaining…

Miami’s next big art hub? Dilapidated, industrial district Little River attracts new galleries and art spaces

Two of Miami’s longest-running art non-profits have revealed plans to relocate to the city’s Little River neighbourhood over the next two years. Their moves to the district, situated just north of Little Haiti, bring new momentum to the area, which has been primed for an art-centric transformation by the local community and outside forces. Locust Projects, an alternative art…

$10.5M Sale of Seven-Building Multifamily Portfolio in Miami Brokered

Colliers has facilitated the sale of a multifamily portfolio comprising 42 units and seven buildings located at 10710, 10742 and 10752 S.W. 5th St. in Miami. An entity doing business as San Miguel Investments Ltd. sold the properties for $10.5 million to an undisclosed buyer. Mitash Kripalani of Colliers represented the seller in the transaction, and Virgilio…

Aria Dev and Merrimac Buy Last Miami Worldcenter Site for Condo Project

Miami Worldcenter, the 27-acre megadevelopment in Downtown Miami, is officially all booked. Aria Development Group and Merrimac Ventures paid $17 million for the last available parcel, a 24,000-square-foot site between 33 and 55 NW Sixth Street, one block east of the Miami Central station, the joint venture announced.

TA Realty Pays $241M for Miami Industrial Park

Medley Commerce Center. Image courtesy of CBRE TA Realty has acquired Medley Commerce Center, a 1 million-square-foot industrial park in Medley, Fla. According to CommercialEdge information, LACERA sold the asset for $241 million or $227 per square foot, marking one of South Florida’s largest warehouse transactions this year. The property had previously changed…

The Fed: How Supply Chain Disruptions Contributed to Inflation in 2021

Producer price index (PPI) inflation increased rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic, with an uneven impact across industries. PPI inflation is the change in input costs to producers. How much did disruptions to supply chains contribute to this increase in inflation? Research Officer Ana Maria Santacreu and Research Associate Jesse LaBelle examined this question in…

Cañero proposes rental complex in south Miami-Dade

The Cañero Group is the latest developer to target south Miami-Dade County, with plans for a multifamily project. The Coral Gables-based firm wants to build a 247-unit complex at 24735 South Dixie Highway in the Princeton neighborhood in an unincorporated area of Miami-Dade, according to an application filed to the county in late September. Cañero Group has the….

Boich, Beal and Mathias score approval for Sunset Harbour project

A group led by Wayne Boich secured approval from the city of Miami Beach for a commercial project in Sunset Harbour. The Miami Beach Planning Board unanimously approved conditional use permits with some conditions for the planned five-story, 50,000-square-foot-plus office and restaurant project at 1920 Alton Road in Miami Beach…

This Week’s South Florida Deal Sheet

Boston-based TA Realty has closed on one of the biggest industrial deals to date in South Florida, acquiring a 12-building industrial park in Medley in Miami-Dade County for $241M. The 1M SF complex, located at 9701-9793 Northwest 91st Court, was sold by DWS, an Illinois-based global asset management company, according to CBRE, which represented DWS…

Miami Sued For $76M Over Allegedly Overcharging For Building Permit Fees

A property owner has sued the city of Miami, alleging it has been overcharging commercial real estate owners for building permit fees and illegally hoarding $76M that should be refunded. In a lawsuit filed this month in Miami-Dade County Circuit Court, the owner of a small retail property in Little Havana sued the city, claiming it has been charging owners unwarranted…

Married to the Job: Craig Robins and Jackie Soffer On Love, Art and Miami

Every industry has its power couples. The music industry has Beyonce and Jay Z. Among business titans, billionaire Barry Diller and fashion designer Diane von Furstenberg come to mind. For the real estate industry, at least in South Florida, it’s Craig Robins and Jackie Soffer. The two — each in their own right — are giants of Miami’s booming retail landscape…

13th Floor JV nab $102M construction loan for Delray project

13th Floor Investments’ Arnaud Karsenti and Key International’s Inigo Ardid and Diego Ardid with rendering of southwest corner of South Congress Avenue and Old Germantown Road: Arnaud Karsenti’s 13th Floor Investments and its partners scored a $102 million construction loan for their master-planned, mixed-use multifamily complex in Delray Beach. 13th Floor…

Two Roads’ suit spells trouble for Frisbie’s West Palm condo project

Two Roads Development’s Reid Boren and Taylor Collins with Frisbie Group’s Dave, Rick and Robert Frisbie Sr. and renderings of South Flaglar House: When Frisbie Group launched its high-end West Palm Beach condominium project this year, the hype was near deafening. Unit asking prices reached $75 million, promising a new level of luxury living in the city. The project marks…

MG3 drops $78M for Walgreens distribution facility near Jupiter

MG3 Group is upping the stakes on its industrial real estate wager. The firm’s real estate investment trust, or MG3 REIT, dropped $78 million for the Walgreens Distribution Center, an industrial facility that spans 98 acres in west Palm Beach County, according to the buyer’s news release. The property at 15998 Walgreens Drive is west of Jupiter, near…

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November 30, 2022