At the end of the 3rd quarter of 2018, both short and intermediate yields continued their climb begun nearly three years ago. As can be seen in the accompanying chart, five year rates, most closely tracked for commercial property borrowing cost, found themselves testing 3%, with short term (here 1 month) rates following close behind […]
CCIM Chief Economist KC Conway appears on this commercial real estate related show to discuss how the debt market will affect real estate, including interest rates, and debt levels. He notes he believes we are headed back to a 5% rate on 10 year treasuries, which would be quite an increase from the low […]
CCIM Chief Economist KC Conway appears on America’s Commercial Real Estate Show with its host Michael to present various predictions, principally comments on which commercial real estate sector will come out on top. Included in the discussion are some the the innovations in retailing concepts, experiential and otherwise. He discusses how the bulk of industrial […]
CCIM Institute Senior Economist KC Conway joins Michael on his commercial real estate show to give his overall economic forecast and discuss how factors like trade wars and disruption can affect commercial real estate. He discusses things like the risks of tariffs and trade war risks and what history tells us about these, the […]
Kiernan “KC” Conway, Senior Economist at the CCIM Institute, appears on America’s Commercial Real Estate Show to talk about the current economic cycle and how it is affecting the commercial real estate market. Conway notes general optimism, with a couple of caveats, the upcoming midterm elections and what is going on with tariffs. He believes […]
At the end of the 2nd quarter of 2018, U.S. Treasury yields, on a nominal basis at all maturities except the longest, increased as much as 25 to 30 basis points. On a real basis, however, rates were essentially unchanged at all maturities. The interest rate environment has the ability to affect commercial property economics […]
In this video, KC Conway, Chief Economist at the CCIM Institute, joins the show host to discuss – if one could refer to such bubbling with enthusiasm as discussing – the U.S. economic state, including job market growth, home building affected by economy, interest rate volatility, net operating income (NOI) concerns, monthly jobs reports, truth […]
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ~Yogi Berra In the accompanying chart of the United States civilian unemployment rate from January 1948 to April 2018, one can clearly see that the economic recovery we are currently in, if defined by a drop in unemployment, is one of the longest and most pronounced […]
Looking at the first chart herein, one can see that among U.S. states Florida exports the most to Cuba in the most recent year (2015), albeit with less margin versus number two ranked Georgia that one might guess. Florida’s near $35 million in exports, presumably much of which originates from Miami, represents 18.8% of […]
In a recent Business Insider article, the indicator with an almost perfect record of predicting US recessions is edging towards a tipping point, Macquarie Bank was quoted, “The yield curve has inverted within the 24 months preceding each of the past five recessions, and has only inverted once without a recession following in the ensuing […]
Given the rise of late in interest rates, it seemed an opportune time to put rates, particularly those of the 5-Year United States Treasury most closely linked to commercial property borrowing rates, into perspective. The accompanying chart, “5-Year United States Treasury Rates from January 1990 to April 2018,” gives a nice visual perspective. In this […]
Assuming a person becomes financially / economically aware around the age of 22 (I can hear the chorus, “if at all”), then anyone born after 1985 has only known a near zero short term interest rate environment. Even those older than this to a degree seem to have begun to taken it for granted. As can […]
On a quarterly basis we publish a yield curve update, showing the shift is the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve at the end of a quarter over the prior quarter. What is more directly of interest to commercial real estate investors, however, is the 5 year U.S. Treasury yield, given its relationship both to commercial borrowing […]
At the end of the 1st quarter of 2018, U.S. Treasury yields, on a nominal basis increased at all maturities from around 30 to 50 basis points. It was essentially the same situation on a real basis, with real rates up around 20 to near 40 basis points at all maturities. The interest rate environment […]
Dr. Mark Dotzour, the Chief Economist and Director of Research for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University which conducts research on financial, socioeconomic, public policy, trade, legal, land use and local market analysis issues related to real estate, while at the the Realtors Land Institute Conference & Expo, is interviewed by Michael Bull […]
While at the Realtors Land Institute Conference & Expo, America’s Commercial Real Estate Show host Michael Bull talks with Edsel Charles, the Founder and CEO of MarketGraphics Research Group, which provides market research information for builders, developers, banks, city governments and others. Among the topics discussed are the economic and political outlook for 2018, cycle […]
