The chart above, retrieved from the St. Louis Fed FRED system, illustrates the net percentage of domestic banks that are tightening their standards for commercial and industrial loans to large and middle-market firms. This data series is part of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank […]
I’ve had a few buyers say something to me along the lines of “I’m going to wait for prices to drop to where they were.” When they mention a level, I notice that it tends to be a value from about five years ago. They could be right; this post has nothing to say about […]
The above chart displays the loan amount per $10,000 of monthly principal and interest (P&I) payment on a 25 year amortization schedule and assuming an interest rate 2.5% above the 10 year treasury. The actual spread varies over time and between institutions, of course. “Money often costs too much.” ~Ralph Waldo Emerson The idea here […]
As can be seen in this chart, the Miami metro area had the largest inbound gains in the country during 2022 versus pre-pandemic 2019. Inbound moves in 2022 increased by near 60% in 2022 compared to 2019 in South Florida. Other charts related to this and related commentary can be found at a recent NAR […]
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Interest Rates and Price Indexes; Commercial Real Estate Price Index, Level [BOGZ1FL075035503Q], index levels retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Series BOGZ1FL075035503Q, January 16, 2023.The chart herein shows the quarterly change of the Commercial Real Estate Price Index from the Board of Governors […]
In the chart above, the number of closed sales as a percentage of the five year average is plotted by month, grouped by year; the dataset is displayed just below. The most striking element is the year end surge of 2021, with closed sales exceeded 250% of the average. The next most striking thing is […]
The interest rate environment has changed fairly dramatically over the past 18 months. At the end of 2022, five year treasury rates, most closely tracked for commercial property borrowing cost, closed at 3.99%, up from the 0.2% to 0.4% range it was bouncing around within during the months preceding February 2021. If one considers this […]
The chart above is of the 5-Year breakeven inflation rate, commonly referred to as the TIPS spread, for the five year period ending on December 30, 2022, the last trading day of 2022. This illustrates the difference in the yields, i.e. the spread, between United States Treasury bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) of the […]
Posted above is the chart for the 5-Year breakeven inflation rate, commonly referred to as the TIPS spread, for the five years ending on Halloween, October 31, 2022. A calculation of the difference in the yields, i.e. the spread, between United States Treasury bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) of the same maturity, this spread […]
About any active commercial broker in Miami-Dade will tell you that there is all kinds of demand for industrial property, but none to buy. I can personally attest to this. This chart of properties noted as “industrial” in the Miami-Dade MLS and with an asking price of $1 to 5 million (mid-market industrial) illustrates this. […]
In the financial markets, option theoretical values are most often calculated using the Black-Scholes model. Developed in 1973 by economists Myron Scholes and Robert C. Merton, this model was introduced to the world in their seminal academic paper, The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities. In my time at Morgan Stanley, where I held the […]
We regularly work with buyers to make unsolicited offers for commercial real estate, usually in situations where a property is not optimally utilized, if utilized at all, i.e. where the current use is not the property’s highest and best use. Owners of these properties frequently would sell for a premium price, and my buyers frequently […]
With news of Starbucks unionizing and personal experiences we have all had with unavailability of workers, this chart should come as no surprise. Nonetheless, it is a stunning thing to see it visually in a chart like the one above. The peak just before the plunge was 63.5%. Two months later, it bottomed out at […]
The 5-year TIPS spread, after almost calmly sitting a bit elevated over pre-pandemic levels in late 2021, has now spiked of a sudden spiked to the highest level in a number of years and to a level about 70% higher than where it was generally hovering pre-pandemic. There has been much talk in the financial […]
We previously posted an article comparing holding vacant land vs. selling and reinvesting the proceeds. A similar situation that we often run into is that of underdeveloped property. Such property is generating income, but as a percentage of market value income well under market rates. This happens as the land value becomes greater than the […]
The chart in this post displays the number of closed commercial property sales within Miami-Dade County in the two year period from January 2020 to December 2021., This includes both improved commercial properties and vacant commercial land that were recorded in the Miami Commercial MLS. December’s volume appears in line with prior months, continuing to […]
