About Hawkins Commercial Realty

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Hawkins Commercial Realty is an entrepreneurial boutique commercial real estate brokerage helping business owners and investors in the Miami, Florida area navigate the processes of buying, selling, and leasing property, and providing M&A/business brokerage services. The company’s guiding principles are to always be responsive, to be effectively, steadily assertive, to continuously develop and utilize competency, to be sensibly creative, and to seek to add value to the process. The company was founded and is owned by a seasoned entrepreneur with more than 25 years of experience in commercial real estate as a broker or principal… (more)

James Hawkins lic. Real Estate Broker

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May 20, 2020

Video: Deloitte Real Estate Solutions Leader John D’Angelo Presents 2025 Commercial Real Estate Outlook

On the latest episode of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show, the show host sat down with John D’Angelo, Real Estate Solutions leader at Deloitte, to discuss Deloitte’s 2025 Commercial Real Estate Outlook. The conversation covered crucial national market trends and predictions, bringing insights that resonate across the industry, especially as we close out a turbulent few years in the real estate market.

2025 Outlook: Turning the Corner

Deloitte’s latest report titled *2025 Commercial Real Estate Outlook* indicates a cautiously optimistic sentiment within the industry. According to D’Angelo, the theme of the report is aptly described as “turning the corner.” This follows two years of low transaction volumes and uncertainty in the market. The report’s respondents—including 900 C-suite executives from 13 countries—indicate that the next 12 to 15 months could see an uptick in transaction activity as optimism returns to the market.

The host emphasized that he is already seeing increased interest in listings, with four times as much activity in recent months. This growth reflects the tightening of the bid-ask spread, which is narrowing as sellers become more realistic and buyers regain confidence, believing that market valuations have stabilized.

Interest Rates and Capital Costs

Interest rates are a significant factor in the future of commercial real estate, and D’Angelo noted that the cost of capital appears to be on the decline. According to their July 2024 survey, many respondents expect further rate cuts before the end of the year. This potential reduction in rates is expected to reignite investment activity, especially in sectors that have been waiting for cost efficiency to return to the marketplace.

Sector Focus: Where Will Capital Flow?

The conversation highlighted several real estate sectors poised to receive increased investment. At the top of the list are digital real estate assets like data centers, which D’Angelo noted are moving from “alternative” to “core” asset status. Multifamily properties and manufacturing facilities are also expected to attract significant capital, especially given the incentives provided by initiatives like the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act.

On the flip side, certain sectors, such as senior housing and student housing, appear to be seeing less interest from investors. This surprised the host, who mentioned that senior housing activity has recently picked up in his own brokerage experience, though the broader market may take more time to see a significant shift.

Geographic Trends and Sustainability

One of the more surprising findings in the report is that cross-border capital flows appear to be stagnating, with most investors choosing to keep their money within their home regions. Additionally, sustainability, while still on the radar for many companies, is being viewed through a cost-efficient lens. D’Angelo mentioned that the focus has shifted toward projects with a near-term ROI, and interest in sustainability retrofits has waned due to concerns about profitability.

Challenges: Inflation, Construction Costs, and AI

Inflation and construction costs remain top concerns for respondents, especially given the rising costs of goods, labor, and materials. However, artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly seen as a solution for operational efficiency in the industry. The adoption of AI, D’Angelo noted, is helping companies automate processes and shift employee focus to more value-added tasks. This shift is crucial, especially as the commercial real estate industry faces a retirement cliff, with 40% of the workforce expected to retire in the next decade.

Office Market: Optimism or Overvaluation?

One of the more debated topics was the future of the office market. While office real estate has struggled post-pandemic, the host shared his contrarian view that office demand could rebound faster than many expect. He predicts that certain office buildings may be repurposed or demolished, leading to a reduction in supply, while companies gradually increase their physical office presence.

D’Angelo agreed that the industry could see stabilization as businesses adapt to hybrid work models. However, the jury is still out, and much will depend on how quickly municipalities and developers can innovate in response to changing demand.

Some Final Thoughts

The episode ended on a note of optimism. As the market stabilizes and capital returns to commercial real estate, industry leaders like D’Angelo and the show host are hopeful that 2025 will mark a turning point for many sectors. While challenges remain, from inflation to geopolitical concerns, there is a growing sense that the worst is behind us and that commercial real estate could experience a revival in the coming year.

For professionals in the industry, this episode serves as a reminder to stay adaptive, as technological advancements and market shifts continue to reshape the landscape of commercial real estate. It delivers valuable insights from two industry veterans, providing a glimpse into the potential for growth and transformation as we approach 2025.

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October 14, 2024

Miami Commercial Real Estate News October 9, 2024: Brickell Office Tower Trades for $443M, Miami Lakes Industrial for $147M; Pre App Filed for Another Miami Supertall; More…

$443M Sale of 701 Brickell Office Tower in Downtown Miami Arranged

JLL Capital Markets has arranged the $443 million sale of 701 Brickell, a trophy office building totaling 685,279 square feet in the heart of downtown Miami’s Brickell financial district. The sale marks the second-largest office transaction in Florida history, according to JLL. Morning Calm Management and its partner purchased the asset from Nuveen Real Estate.

Nuveen Sells Miami Trophy Tower for $443M

The newly-sold tower (pictured in the center) rises inside Miami’s financial district. Image courtesy of JLL Nuveen Real Estate has sold 701 Brickell, a 685,279-square-foot trophy office tower in Miami. Morning Calm Management and its partner acquired the Class AA asset for $443 million in an all-cash deal. JLL represented the seller and procured the buyer. The deal marks…

Elliott completes Brickell office tower purchase for $443M, solidifying the hedge fund’s position as major South Florida player

Paul Singer’s Elliott Investment Management completed its purchase of a Brickell office tower for $443 million. The deal, billed as the second largest office deal in state history by the brokers involved, makes Singer’s hedge fund a major player in one of South Florida’s most active office submarkets. Elliott, which is now based in downtown West Palm Beach after moving from New York…

Nuveen Closes On Sale Of Brickell Office Tower For $443M

Nuveen sold the 685K SF office tower at 701 Brickell Ave. in Miami’s financial district for $443M, more than twice what it paid for the property two decades ago. The deal shows that there is still big investor appetite for prime office buildings in desirable markets. Boca Raton-based Morning Calm Management and an unnamed partner purchased the 33-story tower in an all-cash…

Miami Trophy Office Trades for $443M

Morning Calm Management and its partner has acquired a trophy Class AA office building in the heart of Miami’s financial district for $443 million. The sale of the 685,279 square foot building, owned by Nuveen Real Estate, was structured as an all-cash transaction and represents the second largest office transaction in Florida history, just behind the $540 million sale…

Multiple Permits Filed for 38-Story Mixed-Use Tower at 401 Northeast 29th Street

Construction permits for 2900 Terrace, a 38-story mixed-use tower planned at 401 Northeast 29th Street in Miami’s Edgewater neighborhood, are advancing through the approval process. Three permits are under review: a phased vertical permit and a tree removal permit, filed on October 4, and a site work permit for foundation work submitted on October 7.

Banyan Street Capital Requests Modification for 8750 NW 36th Street and 3787 NW 87th Avenue in Doral

An affiliate of Miami-based Banyan Street Capital hopes to get a modification request granted for a mixed-use project in Doral. City records list the project’s name as “Gateway DMU MDA & Pattern Book Modification”, and it concerns 12.4 acres of a larger 25.2-acre site. When the project was originally approved in 2014, developers sought to construct 150 hotel rooms…

FDOT Planning Street Realignment In Front Of Brickell City Centre

Plans are underway for a project that will see a street realignment and a new crosswalk in front of Brickell City Centre. The area is among the busiest for both pedestrians and vehicles in Miami. The street planned for realignment is the north leg of South Miami Avenue. It runs between an existing Brickell City Centre block, and the former Tobacco Road property, where a future phase…

Miami-Dade legislation seeks way to add major new airport

Mayor Daniella Levine Cava would have to detail within 90 days how to handle the Herculean task of creating another major Miami-Dade airport under legislation a committee faces this week. That airport must handle cargo, commercial passengers and general aviation within the county’s system, according to Commissioner Kevin Marino Cabrera’s resolution. He cites rapid passenger…

Should Miami Build New Airport? County To Discuss

Miami-Dade commissioners are set to vote on a resolution that would authorize a feasibility study on building a new airport. Miami-Dade’s Airport and Economic Development Committee is scheduled to have a hearing on October 9 where the resolution is on the agenda. Commissioner Kevin Marino Cabrera sponsored the resolution. The resolution notes that the county…

Metromover To South Beach Moving ‘Expeditiously’

Miami-Dade is advancing with plans to extend the Metromover to South Beach, according to Miami Today. The county plans to move forward “expeditiously” with the project, according to Josiel Ferrer-Diaz, who is the Deputy Director of Miami-Dade’s Department of Transportation and Public Works. The comments were made at a meeting of the Citizens’ Independent…

New passenger rail in play for East-West Smart Plan corridor

A county measure to be discussed this week would order Mayor Daniella Levine Cava to report in 90 days on the feasibility of alternate modes of transportation, including passenger rail, instead of an earlier bus solution for the East-West Corridor of the long-awaited Smart transportation effort. The vote would direct the mayor to “take all necessary actions in order to provide…

Hotusa checks into Miami Beach, pays $20M for Art Deco hotel

Grupo Hotusa is booking into Miami Beach, acquiring an Art Deco hotel for $19.7 million. An affiliate of Barcelona-based Hotusa, led by President Amancio Lòpez Seijas, bought the Eurostars Winter Haven, a 71-room property completed in 1939 at 1400 Ocean Drive, records and real estate database Vizzda show. Hotusa also owns Eurostars, the brand that operates the hotel.

Undaunted By Prior Rejections, Continuum Co. Offers $141M For Surfside Condo Buyout

The Four Winds condominium building is prime real estate in the heart of Surfside, and it has become a sort of white whale for developers chasing beachfront property. Ian Bruce Eichner’s Continuum Co. is trying for a third time to buy out the condo units at the building at 9225 Collins Ave., offering $141M, Commercial Observer reports. The developer offered $125M last year…

Little Havana mixed-use project has ‘a little art deco feel’

A developer is proposing a new mixed-use residential project for Little Havana, offering ground floor retail and a parking garage with dedicated electric vehicle charging outlets. WR Flagler LLC plans the project, 2157 Flagler Residences, for property on West Flagler Street and Northwest 22nd Avenue. The eight-story building will have 197 residential units, more than 4,500 sf…

Eric Carpenter: Miami Beach’s city manager looks for workforce housing

Eric Carpenter, a public servant with over 20 years of experience, was appointed Miami Beach city manager in July. With a decade in various senior roles within the city, Mr. Carpenter replaces Alina T. Hudak, who became the first woman to hold the role in 2021 before retiring from government this year. A licensed professional engineer, Mr. Carpenter’s introduction…

Resia Sells New 390-Unit Resia Old Cutler Apartment Community in Goulds Neighborhood of Miami-Dade

Resia has sold Resia Old Cutler, a 390-unit apartment community located at 22555 S.W. 107th Ave. in Goulds, roughly 30 miles southwest of Miami. Kayne Anderson Real Estate acquired the property — which was completed in 2023 and offers one-, two- and three-bedroom residences — for an undisclosed price. Amenities at Resia Old Cutler include a multipurpose room…

Resia Sells Miami Area Property

Resia has sold Resia Old Cutler, a 390-unit community in Goulds, Fla., just south of Miami. Kayne Anderson Real Estate bought the property, marking its first acquisition from Resia. The seller will continue to manage the property. Completed last year, the pet-friendly property came online with help from a $60.3 million construction loan originated..

Meta Development plans Brickell boutique condominium

Meta Development is planning a boutique lowrise condominium with 36 units in Miami’s Brickell, once it completes its acquisition of an assemblage for a total of $21 million. The Miami-based firm, which launched late last year, is under contract to purchase a small apartment building at 1880 Brickell Avenue for $10.7 million, Meta President Andrew Rasken told The…

Sushi Garage Joins the Culinary Lineup at The Standard Residences in Midtown Miami

Rosso Development, Standard International, and Midtown Development have announced that Sushi Garage, a popular Miami eatery, will open at The Standard Residences, Midtown Miami. This restaurant, founded by the Juvia Group’s Jonas and Alexandra Millán, is known for its modern take on traditional Japanese cuisine and will be a central dining venue at the highly…

Northwood dips into South Florida’s industrial market with $47M Doral warehouse purchase

Northwood Investors is wading into South Florida’s booming industrial market after paying $46.5 million for a Doral warehouse. An affiliate of Northwood, a Denver-based real estate investment firm, purchased a 201,827-square-foot facility at 10000 Northwest 15th Terrace, records and real estate database Vizzda show. The deal breaks down to $230 a square foot.

Massive Mixed-Use ‘HueHub’ Planned for 8400 NW 25th Avenue in Miami

27th Ave HollandPark EcoreResidences LLC has plans for a massive mixed-use project in Miami-Dade County. If approved by city officials, HueHub would comprise five high-rise buildings, measuring 26 to 37 stories above grade. Plans call for 3,233 residences and 57,260 square feet of retail. There would also be a one-story amenity center and two parking garages…

SmartStop adds fourth self-storage facility to South Florida portfolio, paying $31M for North Miami site

SmartStop beefed up its South Florida self-storage portfolio, buying a recently completed North Miami facility for $30.8 million. An affiliate of Ladera Ranch, California-based SmartStop, led by CEO H. Michael Schwartz, acquired a three-story 99,280-square-foot self-storage building at 250 Northeast 135th Street, records and real estate database Vizzda show.

FAA Permits Filed for 28-Story Residential Tower in Miami’s Little River Neighborhood

Developers 8038 and 165 Owner LLC, an affiliate of Infinity Collective and MVW Partners, have submitted FAA permits for a new residential tower planned for Miami’s Little River neighborhood. Filed on September 17, 2024, the request asks for approval to construct a 360-foot-tall building, or 368 feet above mean sea level. The application is currently under review by the…

MG Developer, Prosper pay $31M for North Bay Village condo dev site

MG Developer teamed up with Prosper Group to acquire a waterfront condo development site in North Bay Village for $30.9 million, The Real Deal has learned. Miami Beach-based Prosper, a development firm led by Jay Roberts, has been in contract to buy the 1-acre assemblage at 1681 North Bay Causeway and 1725 79th Street Causeway. Coral Gables-based MG Developer…

The EcoTech Visions Foundation Moves Closer to Project Construction at 2090 Ali Baba Avenue in Opa-locka

The EcoTech Visions Foundation has secured a rezoning change to make its affordable housing development possible. A new ruling has released the 15,625-square-foot property from the Infill Housing Initiative Program, which did not allow for the development of multi-family communities. Now, the Miami Gardens-based organization can proceed with an eight-story…

‘Exceptional Response’: Already Nearly $500M In Contracts For New Brickell Tower

Swire Properties has announced that it is experiencing an “exceptional” sales response for its planned Brickell towers, The Residences at Mandarin Oriental, Miami. Nearly $500 million in contracts were signed in the first 60 days of sales, out of nearly $1 billion in reservations, the developer said. A 7,000-square-foot sales pavilion opened at the development site…

Pre-Application Filed For Another Brickell Avenue Supertall

There could be another supertall tower coming to Brickell Avenue. A pre-application for the new tower at 1414 Brickell was submitted to Miami-Dade planners on October 2. The tower is proposed to rise 81 floors, or 1,010 feet. Elevations submitted as part of the filing show that it is the maximum height limit allowed by the FAA for the property. 1414 Brickell is proposed to include…

P6 enters Miami-Dade market after paying $16M for dev site near Aventura Mall

P6 Group expanded its pipeline into Miami-Dade County, paying $16 million for a development site near Aventura Mall. The Boca Raton-based developer is planning The Gateway, an 18-story mixed-use project with 210 apartments and 13,185 square feet of office space. A P6 affiliate acquired a 1.4-acre assemblage at 2600 and 2630 Northeast Ives Dairy Road in Ojus…

Ares cements top ranking for pricey purchases in South Florida, paying $147M for Miami Lakes industrial complex

Ares Management paid $147 million for a recently completed Miami Lakes warehouse complex, notching the biggest industrial purchase so far this year. It’s also the third time in less than a year that Los Angeles-based Ares dropped nine figures for a South Florida commercial property. An affiliate of the private equity firm acquired Midway Miami Park, a collection…

East Capital’s Miami-Dade industrial buying binge continues with $48M purchase near Aventura

East Capital Partners is amassing industrial properties in Miami-Dade County, buying its third warehouse complex this year. An affiliate of Darien, Connecticut-based East Capital, led by co-founders Drew DeWitt and David Archibald, paid $48 million for Skylake Executive Industrial Park at 19501-19599 Northeast 10th Avenue near Aventura, records and real estate database…

South Miami grants initial approval to Sunset Place development agreement

South Miami commissioners unanimously approved a development agreement with Alex Vadia’s firm for the Shops at Sunset Place mixed-use project, the largest redevelopment planned in the city. The resolution will return to the South Miami commission for a second reading vote on Oct. 15. Commissioners will also take up site plan approval at the meeting later this month.

More Details Revealed for Summit Brickell, Highlighting Building Program and Public Benefits

More details on the building program for Summit Brickell have been revealed from a recent filing, highlighting key aspects of the project and its contributions to the community. The 65-story, 750-foot tower at 1015 Southwest 1st Avenue (alternatively addressed as 88 SW 10th Street) in Miami’s Brickell Financial District is set to include 505 residential units, with 1,933 sf…

Domus Brickell Park Begins Vertical Ascent at 1611 SW 2nd Avenue in Miami’s Brickell Financial District

Following several months of foundational work, Domus Brickell Park, a short-term-rental-friendly condominium tower at 1611 Southwest 2nd Avenue, is beginning its vertical ascent in the heart of the Brickell Financial District. The 12-story, 171-unit development from North Development is set to redefine the traditional condo-hotel market, with progress moving swiftly since…

New Renderings Unveil Amenities and Living Spaces for ‘Cassia’ at 4011 Salzedo Street in Coral Gables

Alta Developers has unveiled new renderings of Cassia, a 12-story luxury condominium development designed by Behar Font & Partners at 4011 Salzedo Street in Coral Gables’ Merrick Park District. These renderings provide a glimpse into the Grand Lobby, Wellness Lounge, Spa Indoor Pool, Executive Business Center, and Social Club. The images also showcase the thoughtfully…

Developers File Pre-Application for Wellness Hotel at 132 SW 98th Street in Miami

Developers have filed a pre-application for the House of Wellness Hotel in Miami-Dade County. The hotel, measuring 43 stories above grade, would occupy a 0.6-acre site. Upon completion, it would offer 823 units, spanning levels 11 to 42. The South Florida Business Journal reports that the high-rise tower will have 339 parking spots on floors two through nine.

La Baia North Breaks Ground at 9481 E Bay Harbor Drive in Bay Harbor Islands

The Continuum Company has officially broken ground on La Baia North, the second of two planned boutique bayfront condominiums in Miami’s Bay Harbor Islands. This milestone follows the company’s success with La Baia South, which secured a $90 million construction loan and sold out all units. La Baia North, located at 9481 E Bay Harbor Drive, is an eight-story building…

Javier Cervera bulks up retail portfolio with $18M Kendall shopping center purchase

Javier Cervera now has a dozen retail buildings and shopping centers in his Miami-Dade commercial portfolio, after paying $18.2 million for a Kendall shopping center anchored by a Firestone tire and car repair shop. An affiliate of his Coral Gables-based firm, Cervera Real Estate Ventures, or C-Rev, acquired Miller Plaza at 5801 Southwest 137th Avenue, records show.

Jason Talbot and Monceau settle lawsuit over workforce housing dev site in Goulds

Jason Talbot has made peace with Monceau Real Estate after the Miami Beach-based firm’s owners agreed to buy out his minority interest in a Goulds development site. Talbot, principal of Miami-based Workforce Housing Partners, settled his recent lawsuit against Monceau and its principals, siblings Adrian, Julien and Sarah Haccoun, court records show.

Bluenest buys Homestead site for 219 townhouses, as south Miami-Dade resi development keeps surging

Bluenest Development bought a Homestead site with plans for 219 townhouses, as residential construction in south Miami-Dade County continues to surge. The Miami-based firm scooped up the 20-acre vacant property on the southeast corner of Tower Road and Lucy Street in three deals for a combined $12.5 million, according to records. In the biggest purchase, Bluenest bought…

Growing Pains Weigh On Miami’s Ascension As A Global Capital

The dust is settling after the pandemic upended work life, logistics, retail strategies, migration patterns and more. In Miami — one of the biggest winners of new business, people and capital during the coronavirus era — commercial real estate professionals are doubling down, convinced that the city’s rapid growth was more of a turning point than a flash in the pan. The city…

Morgan and Carlyle pay $19M for Pompano Beach dev site that includes closed Macy’s store

Morgan Group and Carlyle Group are moving ahead with plans for a new garden-style apartment complex in Pompano Beach after paying $18.8 million for a redevelopment site that includes a shuttered Macy’s store. The New York-based department store chain sold a 150,353-square-foot retail building at 1200 Northeast 12th Street within the Pompano Beach Citi Centre open-air…

US Development lands $68M additional construction financing for Pompano Beach condos

U.S. Development has secured a total of $73.8 million in construction financing for its planned Salato Residences in Pompano Beach. Records show the Philadelphia-based developer secured a $67.8 million loan from Maxim Capital Group last week, in addition to the initial $6 million loan Maxim provided in 2022, bringing the total construction financing to $73.8 million.

Site Centers offloads another South Florida retail property, selling Boynton Beach shopping center for $31M

Less than a month after selling a Midtown Miami building anchored by Target, Site Centers offloaded a Boynton Beach shopping center. An affiliate of Beachwood, Ohio-based Site Centers sold The Village Square at Golf for $31.1 million to an affiliate of New York-based DRA Advisors, records and real estate database Vizzda show. Anchored by kosher grocery store KC Market…

Germany’s Largest Pension Fund Investigated By Bavarian Parliament For Risky U.S. Real Estate Bets; Including Miami Beach Property

Pension fund Bayerische Versorgungskammer, after being named as a defendant in a lawsuit against developer Michael Shvo, is under fire in the Bavarian State Parliament for its real estate investments. BVK, Germany’s largest pension fund, has been one of the top German investors in American real estate over the past few years as part of a push in global investment that began…

The decline in the US international investment position

Net international investment position (NIIP) captures the difference between two large numbers: the value of US-owned assets abroad (foreign assets) and the value of foreign-owned assets in the US (foreign liabilities). The NIPP determines whether a country is a net creditor (positive position) or a net debtor (negative position) and is an important indicator of a country’s…

How Multifamily Owners Can Guard Against Renter Fraud

Scammers lurk in the background of virtually every industry, and the multifamily sector is no exception. Some renters will leap at the chance to exploit loopholes in the system and take advantage of unprepared landlords. “As a baseline definition, we classify rent fraud as any act of intentional deception by a renter to deceive the property owners to gain financial or personal benefit…”

How CDFIs can protect against fraud

CDFIs can be susceptible to fraud for many reasons. While they share vulnerabilities with other businesses and financial institutions, CDFIs’ mission-driven focus and community-oriented goals can amplify certain risk factors.Volume: Like all financial institutions, CDFIs possess a significant amount of capital, assets and data, naturally making them targets for bad actors.

Strong Apartment Demand Persists Nationally in 3rd Quarter as Supply Hits 50-Year High

Apartment demand again looked quite remarkable in 2024’s 3rd quarter, even as a record number of deliveries hit the market. In turn, rent growth remained quite muted nationwide, as has been the case for several months. The U.S. apartment market absorbed 192,649 market rate apartment units in the July to September time frame. Concurrently, the U.S. delivered 162,595…

Damage from hurricanes Helene, Milton could top $200B

As Florida’s Tampa Bay region braces for Hurricane Milton to make landfall on Wednesday, many in the storm’s path are still reeling from Hurricane Helene’s destruction. Both hurricanes could result in damage topping $200 billion, estimates show. The storms are expected to affect insurance premiums, along with commercial and residential property owners across the state. For years…

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October 9, 2024

Video: The Counselors of Real Estate Chair Anthony DellaPelle Discusses Top Ten Issues Affecting Real Estate 2025

In a recent episode of *America’s Commercial Real Estate Show*, the show’s host welcomed Anthony DellaPelle, chair of The Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) and also a lawyer with the New Jersey based firm of McKirdy, Riskin, Olson & DellaPelle, to discuss the Top Ten Issues Affecting Real Estate for 2025. This annual report, developed by the CRE through extensive polling and discussions among its 1,000 industry advisors, provides a forward-looking analysis of critical trends shaping the market. The committee for development of this was led by Timothy H Savage, Clinical Assistant Professor at the NYU Schack Institute of Real Estate, and Maureen Ehrenberg, FRICS, CRE, co-founder and CEO of Blue Skyre IBE, a Colliers Strategic Partner based in Chicago. This discussion is national in scope, this portions may apply less to commercial real estate in the Miami area.

Key topics included, in reverse order of importance/impact:

10. Price Expectation Gaps: The ongoing disconnect between buyer and seller expectations has been narrowing as market conditions adjust to the end of ultra-low interest rates. Debt maturities and economic shifts may force sellers to lower their asking prices, creating buying opportunities.

9. Office Vacancies and Tax Impact: With national office vacancies hovering around 20%, the declining property values of office buildings threaten the tax base of local economies. DellaPelle stressed the importance of understanding how urban office vacancies can affect everything from municipal budgets to surrounding businesses.

8. Sustainability: The demand for environmentally friendly real estate continues to grow, but implementing sustainable practices can be costly. In some regions, government regulations are pushing the shift towards more energy-efficient buildings, and investors increasingly favor green-certified properties.

7. Artificial Intelligence: While AI’s full impact on the real estate industry is still evolving, early applications in areas like market pricing for multifamily properties show promise. However, the quality of data input remains critical—AI’s effectiveness depends on reliable, accurate information.

6. Housing Affordability: The nation remains short about 4.5 million housing units, particularly affecting low- and middle-income earners. Solving this crisis will require creative collaboration between the public and private sectors, with opportunities in micro-apartments, co-living spaces, and adaptive reuse projects.

5. Insurance Costs: With rising insurance premiums—driven by increasing natural disasters and economic pressures—property owners face growing operational challenges. DellaPelle emphasized the need for creative solutions within the insurance industry, as well as possible public sector interventions.

4. Geopolitical Conflicts: Global conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East, have direct effects on U.S. real estate. These disruptions impact supply chains, shipping costs, and the broader economic environment, all of which trickle down to real estate markets.

3. Loan Maturities and Debt: A looming $2 trillion in commercial real estate loans set to mature over the next two years has raised concerns about how property owners will handle refinancing at higher interest rates. DellaPelle noted that many loans have been extended, but the long-term impact remains uncertain.

2. Cost of Financing: Although interest rates may eventually decrease, DellaPelle pointed out that borrowing costs are unlikely to return to the historic lows of recent years. Investors and developers will need to adapt to a more normalized rate environment.

1. Global and U.S. Elections: Political changes at both the national and local levels can significantly impact real estate markets, from potential shifts in tax policies (like the 1031 exchange) to rent control legislation. DellaPelle highlighted the importance of staying informed and engaging with policymakers on these issues.

The report emphasizes the interconnectedness of these factors, underscoring the importance of strategic foresight and adaptability in navigating the ever-changing real estate landscape. Whether dealing with environmental regulations, AI, or geopolitical risks, the next few years promise both challenges and opportunities for real estate professionals.

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October 9, 2024

Miami Commercial Real Estate News October 2, 2024: Shops at Midtown Miami Sells for $84M, Pair of Doral Office Buildings for $71M; Miami Top Destination for Those with $100M+; More…

Shops at Midtown Miami Sold, Has Over 3.4 million Annual Visitors

Benderson Development has completed the purchase of the Shops at Midtown Miami. JLL Capital Markets said it worked on behalf of the seller to complete the transaction. The property has a leasing rate of 98.3%, and attracts 3.4 million annual visitors. It opened in 2006. Tenants include Target, Ross Dress for Less, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Marshalls and HomeGoods.

With Purchase of The Shops at Midtown Miami, Benderson Again Grows South Florida Footprint

A Target store anchors The Shops at Midtown Miami. Image courtesy of JLL Benderson Development has purchased The Shops at Midtown Miami, a 347,740-square-foot, grocery-anchored retail center in Miami. SITE Centers sold the asset for $83.8 million in a transaction arranged by JLL. It was only a few days prior to this transaction that Benderson acquired…

Benderson bulks up South Florida retail portfolio with $84M Midtown Miami purchase

Benderson Development added a third South Florida retail property to its national portfolio, acquiring a big box center in Midtown Miami for $83.7 million. An affiliate of New York-based Benderson, led by President Randy Benderson, acquired Shops at Midtown Miami, a 347,740-square-foot building with a garage at 3401 North Miami Avenue, a press release states.

Benderson Development Acquires 347,740 SF Shops at Midtown Miami

Benderson Development has purchased Shops at Midtown Miami, a 347,740-square-foot infill power shopping center located at 3401 N. Miami Ave. in Miami. Danny Finkle, Eric Williams, Jorge Portela and Kim Flores of JLL represented the seller in the transaction. The seller and sales price were not disclosed, but South Florida Business Journal reports that SITE Centers Corp…

Construction Begins on La Maré Signature Collection at 9781 East Bay Harbor Drive in Bay Harbor Islands

Chicago-based Regency Development Group has officially broken ground on the first building of the La Maré Brand Collection, a residential development located at 9781 East Bay Harbor Drive in Bay Harbor Islands, Florida. This project was designed by renowned architect Kobi Karp, and its interiors were designed by the acclaimed Debora Aguiar Arquitetos.

Vertical Construction Now Underway At 606-Unit Worldcenter Tower

Vertical construction is now underway at 600 Miami Worldcenter, according to photos taken by Ryan RC Rea. Groundbreaking for the 32-story tower took place in March, when a site work permit was issued. A phased vertical permit was issued in May. The 606-unit tower is 100% sold, and the developers obtained a $95M construction loan earlier this year. All 606 residential units…

Okan Tower ‘Averaging Floor Per Week Vertical Rise’

Okan Tower is now “averaging a floor a week vertical rise,” according to contractor Jacob Companies. A photo posted to social media showed a line of concrete trucks ready for a pour, which took place at 4AM. The 70-story Okan Tower is eventually planned to reach a height of 902 feet in the air. It will be one of Miami’s tallest towers when it reaches completion, which…

Design District Building Approved By FAA At 330 Feet

The Federal Aviation Administration has issued a letter stating that a building planned on Biscayne Boulevard does not represent a hazard to air navigation. A description attached to the FAA filing states the proposed building development project is to be located at 3801-3833 Biscayne Boulevard in Miami. The approved height is 320 feet above ground, or 330 feet above sea level.

Here’s When Demolition On One Bayfront Plaza Is Expected to Begin

Demolition at One Bayfront Plaza is tentatively expected to get underway in early October, according to a memo posted to social media by @AllThings305. The memo was issued by the manager of an office building across the street. The first phase, which includes demolition of a garage and a portion of the structure closest to the street, is expected to last through December…

Baylink transit linking Miami Beach-Miami rolling ahead

A Baylink transit line between Miami and Miami Beach that has been a 40-year dream has cleared objections of the City of Miami Beach and a National Environmental Policy Act Review for an elevated Metromover on the MacArthur Causeway and is moving ahead. “We plan on moving this project forward expeditiously,” Josiel Ferrer-Diaz, deputy director and chief project delivery…

First new Smart Program rapid transit stuck in slow lane

The first route of the Smart Program to add six Miami-Dade transit legs was not elevated as some had hoped, but much of it sits up in the air as it nears two years past its initial completion date with nobody yet aboard. South Dade Bus Rapid Transit remains in construction, with opening targeted in next year’s second quarter. But the trust that doles out transit tax receipts to help…

Terreno Realty Corporation Announces Development Completion In Hialeah

Terreno Realty Corporation, an acquirer, owner and operator of industrial real estate in six major coastal U.S. markets, announced that it has completed the development and stabilization of Countyline Corporate Park Phase IV Building 39 in Hialeah, Florida effective September 30, 2024. Building 39 is 100% leased to one tenant. Building 39 of Terreno Realty Corporation’s…

New Renderings Of 65-Story Summit Brickell

New renderings and details have been filed for the Summit Brickell tower, which is currently moving through the approval process. Developers are seeking site plan and zoning approval for the tower, and filed a presentation with the county earlier this month highlighting the refined design. The 65-story, 750-foot tower is planned to include 505 residential units…

Elliott Strikes $450M Deal for Miami Office

Elliott Investment Management has struck a contract agreement for roughly $450 million to acquire a Miami office building, according to a report from The Real Deal. The asset, 701 Brickell Avenue, spans 687,000 square feet asset and was first opened in 1985 before undergoing renovation in 2021. The 33-story building now features floor plates, an art conference facility…

Foodmageddon: South Florida restaurant landlords experiencing record tenant turnover

Goat Hospitality Group is giving up on its Miami taco stand while the firm searches for a bigger spot. The Miami-based food and beverage firm recently put on the market its lease for Pilos Tacos at Paseo Brickell, a retail and restaurant center. Prospective restaurateurs interested in taking over a fully built-out 990-square-foot space with a kitchen and furnishings would pay…

43-Story Downtown Miami Tower Near Top Off, Permit Pending For Second

A downtown Miami apartment tower is now about five floors from topping off, new photos by Ryan RC Rea show. The 43-story tower is being built by developer Namdar. It wall have 680 apartments upon completion. Namdar is also now in permitting to build a second tower on the property with an additional 714 units, bring the total apartment count to 1,394 units.

Alliance HP acquires first Miami-Dade industrial site for $24M

Alliance HP made its first foray into Miami-Dade’s industrial submarket with a $24 million warehouse acquisition near Hialeah. An affiliate of Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania-based Alliance HP and partner, Southern Star Shipping Co., bought Airport East Business Center, a 101,685-square-foot industrial building at 4201 Northwest 37th Court, records and real estate database…

Three New Retail Tenants Announced for Miami Worldcenter’s Expanding Commercial Space

Three new retail and restaurant concepts are set to open at Miami Worldcenter, the $6 billion, 27-acre mixed-use development reshaping Downtown Miami. The project’s ownership group has finalized leases with Go Greek Yogurt, HŸP, a sneaker and streetwear retailer, and SkinSpirit, a medical aesthetics clinic and spa. These additions are expected to open by early 2025.

Andrew Korge makes $28M offer for Location Ventures Coconut Grove dev site

Andrew Korge is aiming to drop $28.2 million for a former Rishi Kapoor development site in Coconut Grove that ignited the embattled developer’s legal troubles. Bernice Lee, a court-appointed receiver managing the assets of Kapoor’s defunct Coral Gables-based Location Ventures, is seeking a federal judge’s approval to sell a mixed-use building at 31203170 Commodore Plaza

Construction Underway for Bay Harbor Towers at 10141 East Bay Harbor Drive in Bay Harbor Islands

PPG Development and L3C Capital Partners have officially broken ground on Bay Harbor Towers, an eight-story waterfront condominium at 10141 East Bay Harbor Drive in Miami’s Bay Harbor Islands. Designed by renowned architect Kobi Karp, the project offers luxurious living with modern architecture and unparalleled views. The residences’ sales started in late 2023…

Northwood Investors Acquires $160M Industrial Portfolio in Sun Belt, Including Miami

Northwood Investors has acquired a $160 million industrial portfolio located in Georgia, Florida and Texas. Totaling 1.8 million square feet… fully leased at the time of sale. The portfolio comprises three industrial buildings: Home Depot Cedar Port Distribution Center in Baytown, Texas; Havertys Distribution Center in Braselton, Ga.; and 10000 N.W. 15th Terrace in Miami.

The Brits are coming: Billionaires Simon and David Reuben are seeking majority stake in W South Beach for $400M-plus

British billionaires Simon and David Reuben are betting big on Miami Beach’s hospitality market, seeking majority ownership of the W South Beach for close to a half-billion dollars. Reuben Brothers, their eponymous London-based global investment arm, is negotiating a deal with the 395-room hotel’s current owners, Aby Rosen and David Edelstein, who lead New York-based…

West Eleventh Residences Breaks Ground at 18 Northwest 11th Street in Miami’s Park West Neighborhood

Developers Property Markets Group (PMG), Lion Development Group, and Marc Roberts Companies have broken ground on West Eleventh Residences in Miami. This 44-story project will feature 659 fully furnished luxury residences in the Park West neighborhood. It is designed with short-term rental flexibility in mind, allowing owners to host guests year-round…

Miami Beach board approves expanding Standard hotel

A star-studded group that includes billionaire developer Barry Sternlicht, architect Bjarke Ingels and hospitality CEO Miguel Isla Esteve secured approval to expand and renovate the Standard Spa, Miami Beach. Sternlicht, Ingles, Isla Esteve, Anthonio de la Rúa and Sebastian Sas are leading the redevelopment of the waterfront Venetian Islands hotel at 40 Island Avenue in…

Bridge lands $53M construction loan to redevelop ex-Ryder HQ in Miami-Dade, as industrial market chugs along

Bridge Industrial landed a $53 million construction loan to redevelop Ryder System’s former headquarters site in Miami-Dade County with a logistics complex. Chicago-based Bridge plans the 326,400-square-foot Bridge Point Flagler Station with a 128,800-square-foot building and a 197,600-square-foot building at 11690 Northwest 105th Street in an unincorporated area…

Bill Fuller and partners score nearly $13M settlement from city of Miami

Developer Bill Fuller and two partners extracted a $12.5 million settlement from the city of Miami stemming from… The complaint alleged the Miami-based company suffered $27.9 million in damages after its businesses, Ball & Chain bar at 1513 Southwest Eighth Street, and Taquerias El Mexicano restaurant at 521 Southwest Eighth Street, were forced to close due to…

C-III Capital pays $71M, scoring $25M discount for two Doral office buildings

Another South Florida suburban office property sold at a steep discount, as C-III Capital Partners acquired two Doral buildings for $25 million below the previous sale price seven years ago. An affiliate of Irving, Texas-based C-III Capital, led by CEO Andrew Farkas, acquired One Park Square at Doral, a 3-acre campus at 3470 Northwest 82nd Avenue, for $71 million…

Construction Starts on Luxury ‘Bay Harbor Towers’ at 10143 East Bay Harbor Drive

Construction has started on Bay Harbor Towers, an eight-story residential venture in the eponymous Bay Harbor Islands. Led by PPG Development, the community will offer 44 condos, offering two-bedroom to four-bedroom floorplans. According to Miami Residential Group, residences will measure 1,870 to 3,393 square feet, featuring floor-to-ceiling windows…

Adam Neumann’s Flow launches Miami condo sales

Flow, the apartment startup founded by Adam Neumann, is adding condominium ownership to its offerings in South Florida. Neumann is launching sales at Flow House, a 466-unit project in Downtown Miami. The residences at the 40-story development within Miami Worldcenter are expected to be delivered next year. The option for ownership under the Flow umbrella…

One West Twelve Residences in Overtown Gets Quick FAA Approval

Overtown’s One West Twelve Residences has been approved by the FAA, just a few weeks after it was submitted for review. The FAA approval allows the tower to be built at a permanent height of 300 feet above ground, or 314 feet above sea level. Approval was issued on September 23. The application was submitted on September 11. One West Twelve Residences is now also…

New Interior Renderings Released of North Edgewater 25-Story Elle Residences

Elle Residences has released new interior renderings of its residential units The One Atelier is leading interior design in collaboration with Elle. The 25-story development is planned to be built at the north end of Edgewater. It will include 180 residences, delivered move-in ready. Units will range in size from 450 to 845 square feet, with one or two bedrooms, and prices…

From London To Miami, Hedge Funds Are Buying Into Real Estate

Two of the world’s best-known hedge funds are taking on real estate deals in the UK and U.S. as financial investors spot an opportunity in the sector due to asset and share price declines. In the UK, GoldenTree Asset Management agreed to buy a listed property company that was in wind-down mode, and Elliott Management is continuing a London office buying strategy.

Photo: Signature Miami Bridge Arches Under Construction

A photo taken this week shows the Signature Bridge arches under construction in downtown Miami. According to a presentation to stakeholders his month, the project remains on schedule for completion in late 2027. The budget has also not changed recently, and remains at $840m. Photo is by Phillip Pessar.

Take a Tour of SoLé Mia, North Miami’s Mini-City

Situated on 184 acres near Oleta River State Park in North Miami, SoLé Mia is a $4 billion master-planned community that encompasses luxury living, nature, wellness, recreation, shopping, dining and more. The mini-city is rising at the intersection of NE 151 Street and Biscayne Boulevard, with three residential buildings—The Shoreline, Villa SoLé and Villa Laguna—already completed.

Report Names Miami A Top Destination For Those With 100M+

Miami remains a strong draw for individuals with a high net worth, according to a new report. New World Wealth and Henley & Partners listed the top “holiday hotspots,” where those with over $100m liquid investable wealth had primary or secondary homes. Miami was at the top of the list, with over 650 centi-millionaires having either primary or secondary residences.

Lease roundup: Italian restaurant Rosemary’s coming to Wynwood, Miami Worldcenter lands tenants

New York Italian restaurant Rosemary’s will open in Miami’s Wynwood neighborhood. New York-based hospitality firm Casa Nela leased 7,000 square feet at 310 Northwest 25th Street, where Rosemary’s will open in late fall, according to the tenant’s news release. Carlos Suarez is founder of Casa Nela, and Craig Giunta will be the executive chef at the Wynwood restaurant.

Eight-Story ‘Hollywood Oaks’ Planned for 4220 and 4226 N. 58th Avenue in Hollywood

New York-based Kushner Co. has a 5.7-acre site in Broward County under contract from 58 Oak LLC and 4220 N 58th Avenue Partners LLC. There, it hopes to build Hollywood Oaks, an eight-story mixed-use venture. The South Florida Business Journal reports that the project will feature 470 apartments, along with a seven-story parking garage with 813 spots.

Baptist Health wins approval for 100-bed hospital in Sunrise

Baptist Health South Florida won approval for a seven-story, 100-bed hospital in Sunrise — a city with a population of about 90,000 but no hospital. The Sunrise City Commission on Tuesday approved a site plan for the Baptist Health Sunrise Hospital and a special exception allowing hospital operations on the vacant 25-acre development site at 12401 West Oakland Park Boulevard.

128,550 SF Lake Shore Plaza II Office Building in Sunrise Brokered

CBRE has brokered the sale of Lake Shore Plaza II, a 128,550-square-foot office building located at 1300 Concord Terrace in Sunrise, roughly 19 miles west of Fort Lauderdale. Miami-based Galium Capital purchased the five-story property for an undisclosed price. Christian Lee, Sean Kelly, Amy Julian, Andrew Chilgren, Tom Rappa and Matthew Lee of CBRE represented…

Sunrise OKs density boost for massive Metropica project

Developer Joseph Kavana secured initial approval from Sunrise commissioners this week to increase the density of his long-planned, phased, mixed-use development called Metropica. The 65-acre master-planned project in western Broward County has been in the works for at least a decade. The site at 1800 Northwest 136th Street is sandwiched between the Florida Everglades…

Galium Capital snags Sunrise office building at deep discount, paying $17M

In a sign that office properties in South Florida suburbs are bargain deals, Galium Capital acquired a five-story building in Sunrise for $17 million, roughly half the previous sale price nearly a decade ago. An affiliate of Miami-based Galium, led by managing partners Jacques Bessoudo and Iser Rabinovitz, bought Lake Shore Plaza II at 1300 Concord Terrace, records and real estate…

Miami-Dade warehouse sold for $47M as part of portfolio deal

Northwood Investors acquired a distribution warehouse in Doral for $46.5 million as part of a three-building portfolio deal. UBS Realty Investors affiliate 10000 NW 15th Terrace Industrial Investors sold the 201,827-square-foot warehouse at 10000 N.W. 15th Terrace to NW FL Logistics LLC, part of Denver-based Northwood Investors. The price equated to $230 per square foot.

Tavistock begins closings on Pier Sixty-Six condos in Fort Lauderdale

Tavistock Group began closings on units in its Pier Sixty-Six condo project in Fort Lauderdale this week. The developer completed construction on its two-building, 31-unit Resort Residences this summer. Its 11-story, 29-unit, Azul condos recently received a temporary certificate of occupancy, and its 11-story, 28-unit Indigo building is expected to receive its TCO in the coming…

Suburban Fort Lauderdale Office’s Value Cut In Half In $17M Sale

A less than 20-year-old suburban Fort Lauderdale office building traded for $17M, nearly half the property’s previous $32M purchase price in 2013. Galium Capital purchased the five-story, 129K SF office building at 1300 Concord Terrace in Sunrise from a joint venture of Boston-based Barings and MassMutual Financial Group. North Miami-based New Wave Loans provided…

‘Salato Pompano Beach’ Moves Forward After Construction Loan at 305 Briny Avenue in Pompano Beach

In May 2023, Florida YIMBY reported on Salato Pompano Beach, a nine-story residential venture in Broward County. Now with the acquisition of a $73.8 million construction loan, it’s expected to break ground soon. Located on a 1.33-acre parcel, the high-rise building is slated for completion by the conclusion of 2026. Its 40 condos will measure 2,106 to 3,354 square feet…

Dermot is back in South Florida, scoops up 350-unit Wellington apartment project for $144M

Two years after splashing into South Florida to buy multifamily properties, Dermot Company added a Wellington apartment complex for $144.2 million. An affiliate of Dermot, a New York-based, multifamily-focused real estate investment firm, acquired The Quayle at Lake Circle, records and real estate database Vizzda show. The buyer assumed a $60 million State Farm mortgage.

Dermot Pays $144M for West Palm Beach Property

The Dermot Co. has bought The Quaye at Wellington, a 350-unit luxury community in Wellington, Fla. This acquisition further expands the company’s portfolio in the Sunshine State, where it already owns and manages 1,800 units. Stockbridge Capital Group sold the Class A asset for $144.2 million, according to Yardi Matrix information. In addition, the buyer assumed the outstanding…

Moody’s: Q3 2024 Preliminary Trend Announcement

Multifamily Performance Steadied, Office Stress Continued to Manifest, Retail Vacancy Declined, And Industrial Cooled Down The commercial real estate (CRE) industry received welcome news in September as the FOMC lowered the target federal funds rate by 50 basis points (bps) bringing expectations of continued relief in meetings ahead. The period of ‘higher for longer’ has…

Shortages mere days away as ports strike cripples shipping

A port strike from Maine to Texas that began Tuesday could lead to surcharges and inflation. The ripple effect raises concerns for many. “All of us in the warehousing portion of the business,” said Gary Goldfarb, chief strategy officer of Miami-based Interport Logistics, “have customers’ inventories that may last three, four, five, six days without additional freight, but then afterwards…

Video: LARC President Ryan Meliker Provides Hospitality Real Estate Update; Hotel Performance, Forecast

The dynamic landscape of the U.S. hotel industry was the focus of a recent episode of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show. The guest, Ryan Meliker, president of Lodging Analytics Research and Consulting (LARC), provided a deep dive into current trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping the hotel market. This article highlights key insights from their conversation…

With Pandemic-Era Excess Savings Depleted, What Lies Ahead for the Hotel Sector?

Highlights: Although excess pandemic-era savings have been fully depleted as of March 2024, Moody’s expects the Federal Reserve will navigate a soft landing for the U.S. economy with real GDP expected to increase by the mid-2% area in 2024 and the low-2% area in 2025.With non-financial assets such as real estate holdings and vehicles accounting for a larger share…

Office Loan Maturity Monitor: Maturities Picked Back up in August

Highlights: $2.5 billion CMBS office loans reached fully extended maturity in August, the highest monthly total since we started tracking in January 2023. The payoff rate was strong, at 56.9%. Maturities with debt yield above 8% and limited lease rollover continued to exhibit the strongest performance Although several large loans paid off in August, smaller loans continue to pay…

Report: More Than 8 in 10 CEOs Think Hybrid Work Will Be Dead Within 3 Years

Office usage across the 10 largest metro areas is still at roughly 60.5% of prepandemic levels, according to Kastle Systems’ keycard swipe data. But most CEOs think the era of remote work is coming to an end. In a survey of 1,300 global CEOs conducted by KPMG, 83% said they expect their companies will shift back to requiring five days of office attendance sometime in the next…

Vape Shops Caught Fire Nationally. Now Regulations Could Smoke Them Out Of Existence

Cities and towns across the country have watched a proliferation of vape shops waft across the landscape over the past half-decade, and Sugar Land, Texas, is no different. With about a dozen stores primarily selling electronic cigarettes and accessories, the city is part of a fast-moving retail trend that saw the number of electronic cigarette stores grow almost 20% annually…

Sizing up Hurricane Helene’s expected multibillion-dollar damages, effects on insurance market

As Hurricane Helene churned toward Florida, property owners and insurers braced for the impact from another devastating and costly storm. The Category 3 hurricane, which is expected to make landfall Thursday evening in the Big Bend region of Florida as a Category 4, could cause catastrophic storm surge of up to 20 feet above ground in some areas, according to the National…

Despite Helene’s Record Size And Strength, Property Insurance Market May Weather The Storm

Hurricane Helene continued to punch across three states Friday as a weakened tropical storm after making landfall along Florida’s Big Bend region Thursday night. Professionals across the commercial real estate and insurance industries woke up Friday morning to assess the devastation, which is expected to total billions of dollars. As of Friday evening, at least 25 people across…

U.S. Apartment Market Sees Negligible Change in August

Stability continued to be the key storyline in the U.S. apartment market in August. U.S. apartment occupancy remained stable at 94.1% in August, marking the 10th consecutive month of occupancy straying no more than 10 bps in either direction. In fact, the difference between July (94.16%) and August (94.13%) looks to be incorrect when viewing the data on a chart because…

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October 2, 2024

Video: LARC President Ryan Meliker Provides Hospitality Real Estate Update; Hotel Performance, Forecast

The dynamic landscape of the U.S. hotel industry was the focus of a recent episode of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show. The guest, Ryan Meliker, president of Lodging Analytics Research and Consulting (LARC), provided a deep dive into current trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping the hotel market. This article highlights key insights from their conversation, offering a detailed look at the performance of different hotel segments, the impact of business travel, the resurgence of conventions, and predictions for market growth and investment.

Winners and Losers in the Hotel Industry

Meliker started by explaining that the hotel industry, like many other real estate sectors, has seen a bifurcation in performance, with clear winners and losers. Certain markets and asset classes are performing exceptionally well, while others are struggling. He pointed out that large group-oriented hotels and properties benefiting from international inbound travel have seen a notable rebound, especially in urban areas. Meanwhile, hotels catering to domestic leisure travel, particularly in beach markets like Myrtle Beach and Virginia Beach, have witnessed a moderation in demand after a strong pandemic recovery.

Business Travel: Recovery Still Lags

A significant topic of discussion was the state of business travel, which has been slow to recover fully. While business travel is better than it was in 2021 and 2022, it remains about 10% below pre-pandemic levels. Meliker emphasized that the shift to remote work has had a profound impact on corporate transient demand, as fewer employees are physically present in offices. This has led to shorter and less frequent business trips, mirroring the lower occupancy rates in office buildings.

Convention Business Booming

In contrast, the convention sector has shown strong growth. Meliker explained that group travel is doing particularly well, in part due to the remote work culture. With employees not spending as much time in offices, conventions and in-person gatherings have become more valuable as opportunities for teams to collaborate and network. Convention bookings across the 30 largest centers in the U.S. are up 4% in 2024 and expected to rise another 3% in 2025. This growth trend is expected to continue over the next five years, providing a positive outlook for urban hotel markets.

Trends in Hotel Rates and Valuations

When it comes to average daily rates (ADR), the hotel sector has seen slow but steady growth. Higher-end hotels have performed better, thanks to the recovery in corporate transient and group segments. However, lower-end hotels have struggled due to the slowdown in domestic leisure demand. Meliker projected a modest uptick in ADR growth of around 3% in 2025, supported by improving consumer confidence and stable demand.

Valuations in the hotel market are also trending upward, driven by modest growth in cash flow and easing cap rates as interest rates stabilize. Meliker pointed out that while transaction volumes were slow in early 2024, they are picking up and could see significant improvement in 2025. However, the ability of buyers and sellers to agree on pricing remains a critical factor for deal completion.

New Hotel Supply Remains Muted

A key takeaway from the conversation was the limited growth in new hotel supply. Over the next five years, hotel supply is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of just 1%, far below the long-term average of nearly 2%. This slower pace of development is a positive factor for existing properties, as demand growth is expected to outpace new supply, giving hotels more pricing power. However, Meliker warned that certain markets, such as Atlanta, could face oversupply challenges if large-scale developments significantly increase hotel room inventory.

Markets to Watch: Las Vegas, Puerto Rico, and Seattle

Meliker highlighted several markets that he believes are poised for strong growth. Las Vegas, long known as a gambling destination, is rapidly transforming into a sports and entertainment hub, with events like Formula 1, the Super Bowl, and a growing roster of professional sports teams driving demand. Puerto Rico also stands out due to substantial federal investment in its energy infrastructure, which is expected to remove significant barriers to real estate investment, including hotels. Lastly, Seattle’s combination of strong convention bookings, international travel, and Amazon’s recent decision to bring employees back to the office full-time makes it an attractive market for hotel investment.

Markets Facing Challenges: Austin

Not every market is experiencing a boom. Austin, a city that has seen rapid growth in recent years, is facing significant headwinds. The closure of its convention center for at least five years is expected to have a substantial negative impact on the local hotel market. In addition, the rising costs associated with union labor in major urban markets like San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York are adding pressure on hotel operators, making profitability more challenging.

The Impact of the 2024 Presidential Election

Looking ahead, the upcoming U.S. presidential election is likely to influence hotel demand. Historically, election years have been associated with slower GDP growth, reduced business investment, and lower demand growth in the hotel sector. Meliker pointed out that while the results of the election itself are important, the broader economic policies that follow—such as tax cuts or changes to healthcare subsidies—could significantly impact hotel performance.

Conclusion: Pay Attention to Market-Specific Drivers

Ryan Meliker’s parting advice for hotel investors was to focus on the specific drivers of demand in each market. A one-size-fits-all approach will not work in the hotel industry, as different markets are driven by unique factors such as conventions, business travel, or leisure tourism. Understanding the nuances of each market and asset class is key to making wise investment decisions in this complex and ever-evolving sector.

This episode of *America’s Commercial Real Estate Show* provided a comprehensive look at the trends shaping the hotel industry, offering valuable insights for investors, operators, and anyone with an interest in commercial real estate.

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October 1, 2024

Miami Commercial Real Estate News September 25, 2024: 7,500-Unit Little River MXU with New Tri-Rail Station Plans Advancing; South Miami City Hall to be Redeveloped with 670 Apartments; More…

Developer Moves Forward with Plans for 7,500-Unit Mixed-Use Development and New Tri-Rail Station in Miami’s Little River District

Swerdlow Group, led by veteran developer Michael Swerdlow, is moving forward with plans to transform the Little River District in Miami’s Little Haiti neighborhood. The proposed development, spanning approximately 63 acres, will include 7,500 residential units, combining affordable, workforce, and market-rate housing. Swerdlow’s vision for the area builds on his…

Developer Planning 7,500 Units In Little River, Will Build New Tri-Rail Station

Swerdlow Group is advancing plans for a massive project in Little River, according to Multi-Housing News. The development will include approximately 7,500 residential units, with a mix of affordable, workforce and market-rate housing. The affordable units will be higher end and look like market rate apartments, similar to Swerdlow’s recently completed Sawyer’s Walk…

$103 Million Loan Secured for Mixed-Use Development ‘The Gardens Residences’ in North Miami

Berkadia has arranged a $103 million construction take-out loan for The Gardens Residences, a mixed-use multifamily project in North Miami being completed in two phases. The financing was secured by Berkadia’s Senior Managing Director Charles J. Foschini, Managing Director Christopher Apone, Vice President-Originations Lourdes Carranza-Alvarez, and Associate Director…

659-Unit Condo Tower West Eleventh Residences Breaks Ground, Nearly 100% Sold (New Renderings)

The 44-story West Eleventh Residences is now officially under construction, and almost the entire building was sold before groundbreaking. The developer told the SFBJ that just nine condo units remain to be sold, out of 659 available. The new 482-foot tower will include: 659 condo units 30,000 square foot, tri-level experiential entertainment venue 4,840 sf…

New Permitting Activity At 41-Story HUB Miami

There is now permitting activity this week for the the 41-story HUB Miami tower site. A site work permit went into prescreening with Miami’s Building Department on September 24. The site work permit was first applied for in May 2023, but later moved to inactive status. It was reactivated on September 20, with a note stating that the soil permit was ready to be submitted.

Commuter Train Service Between MiamiCentral & Aventura To Enter Engineering Phase

Brightline has provided an update on the commuter rail service planned on its tracks, known as the Northeast Corridor. The project is expected to formally move to the engineering phase in October 2024, according to a development update released to investors on September 20. Brightline said it has substantially completed negotiations with Miami-Dade County…

Romero Britto buys his art studio in Miami’s Little River

Brazilian artist and sculptor Romero Britto purchased his biggest gallery piece, his company’s headquarters. Britto paid $11.8 million for the 58,000-square-foot art studio at 795 Northwest 72nd Street in Miami’s Little River neighborhood, according to a press release. Real estate investor Joe Del Vecchio sold the property. The Britto Group creates artwork for consumer goods…

Developer Seeks Funding for ‘Flagler Villas’, Planned for 5215 West Flagler Street in Coral Gables

An affordable housing developer is seeking funding for a 60-unit complex in Miami-Dade County. Flagler Villas would comprise 60 affordable residences, reserved for seniors earning up to 30 percent of the area median income (AMI). At the time of publication, Miami-Dade County reported that a one-person household would have to earn $23,850 a year to qualify.

Citadel Tower Submitted At Taller 1,032′ Height

Citadel’s new supertall headquarters tower has been submitted for site plan review, at a taller height. In late August, the plans were submitted to Miami-Dade for zoning review showing a height of 1,032 feet above sea level. Zoning review is currently in process. With the new site plan filing on September 23, the height has been increased to 1,049 feet above sea level.

You Can Now Watch Live As The 56-Story Casa Bella Tower Rises

A webcam showing construction of the 56-story Casa Bella Residences by B&B Italia tower is now live and available on YouTube. The webcam was created by Ryan RC Rea. You can expect to see lots of activity on the feed. Crews now appear to have reached the typical residential floors, where shell construction typically moves fastest. A groundbreaking ceremony…

Bal Harbour Condo Tower Designed By SOM Breaks Ground

In Bal Harbour, a 24-story condo tower designed by Skidmore, Owings & Merrill is now under construction. A ribbon-cutting ceremony was held on September 20 to celebrate groundbreaking. It will include 56 ultra-luxury units “Designed to provide a single-family home experience,” with private elevators and garages. Units will range in size from 3,300 to nearly 13,000 sf.

Elliott buying Brickell office tower for $450M, as hedge fund amplifies its South Florida investments

Paul Singer’s Elliott Investment Management is under contract to puvrchase the 701 Brickell office tower in Miami for about $450 million. The deal marks the New York-based hedge fund’s expanding investments in South Florida. Elliott is buying the 33-story tower at 701 Brickell Avenue in Miami from New York-based Nuveen Real Estate, according to a source.

Blackstone subsidiary nabs $95M loan for Medley industrial complex

Link Logistics secured a $95 million loan for a quartet of recently completed warehouses in Medley. An affiliate of New York-based GID provided the loan to Link Logistics, the industrial real estate subsidiary of investment giant Blackstone, led by CEO Stephen Schwarzman. Both firms are headquartered in New York. The mortgage is secured by Palmetto 74 Logistics Center…

Ansin family’s Sunbeam buys North Bay Village condo complex

The billionaire Ansin family’s Sunbeam Properties paid $8 million to complete a bulk purchase of an aging condo complex in North Bay Village. Sunbeam acquired the 24-unit, six-building Treasure Island Cove property at 1631 North Treasure Drive, said Andy Ansin, president and CEO. The acquisition equates to about $333,000 per condo. Treasure Island Cove was built…

Future Of $4B American Dream Miami Clouded Amid Lawsuit Over Land Sale

Nearly a decade after it was first proposed, the American Dream Miami mall remains just a dream, and its future is getting more uncertain. Triple Five Group, the Canadian development firm that proposed the 6M SF retail and entertainment complex outside of Hialeah, recently filed a lawsuit to keep alive its plan to purchase a large segment of the site to make way…

Miami Beach won’t raze Jackie Gleason Theater

Miami Beach has rejected a call to tear down and replace the landmark Fillmore Miami Beach at Jackie Gleason Theater but now must decide what to do next and who’s going to pay for it. Commissioners this month asked administrators to talk with Live Nation, the theater’s operator, to decide whether to tear out the interior and start over or just renovate what’s there…

283-Unit River District 14 Condo Project Gets $78M Construction Loan

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$77.8 Million Loan Secured for Short-Term Rental Condominium Project in Miami’s River District

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Developers Propose 42-Unit ‘River Square’ for 2655 N.E. 205th Street in Miami

Two Sunny Isles Beach-based developers have proposed a mid-rise housing complex in Miami-Dade County. The South Florida Business Journal reports that the venture, known as “River Square”, would measure eight stories above grade and offer 42 apartments. The one-bedroom and two-bedroom residences would span 677 to 1,056 square feet. The publication notes that…

Developer proposes 42-unit multifamily project in Ojus, amid record South Florida apartment pipeline

A developer proposes a 42-unit multifamily project in Ojus, amid a record apartment construction pipeline in South Florida. Entities managed by Jacobo and Fortuna Toledano of Sunny Isles Beach want to build the eight-story building on a 0.7-acre assemblage on the southwest corner of the Florida East Coast Railway tracks and Northeast 206th Street in unincorporated…

Solina Bay Harbor Breaks Ground at 1055 93rd Street in Bay Harbor Islands

Solina Bay Harbor, a boutique condominium development by RedHoek+, has officially commenced construction after surpassing the 50% sales milestone within six months. Located at 1055 93rd Street in the heart of Bay Harbor Islands, this exclusive project is set to redefine the standard of luxury living in the area. In partnership with The INSIDE Network, sales and marketing…

Little River Tower Submitted To FAA, Demolition Permit Issued

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South Miami Moves Forward With $309M Transit Oriented Development

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13th Floor will redevelop South Miami city hall with 670 apartments, new municipal building

13th Floor Investments will redevelop South Miami’s city hall with a mixed-use project that will include 670 apartments and a new municipal building. On Tuesday, city commissioners voted to select the Coconut Grove-based firm as the developer. The $309 million project, called Link at SoMi, will be on the 4.5-acre site 6130 Sunset Drive. Link at SoMi will include…

Inside Miami’s Milestone Senior Housing Project, Block 55 at Sawyer’s Walk

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“Miami has jumped the shark”: Analyzing South Florida’s office sales slump

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Miami Office Deal Volume Increases, Prices Surge

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Waldorf Astoria’s Miami Supertall Tower Now Several Floors Up

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What is happening to Shops at Sunset Place? Future of South Miami mall takes new path

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Lost sizzle: BurgerFi vacates four South Florida restaurants and corporate office as part of bankruptcy strategy

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Related, BH score approval for larger Plantation mixed-use project

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Urban League advances plan for 469-unit affordable housing development in Oakland Park

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Sienna Motors expands in Pompano Beach, buys shuttered dealership for $22M

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Boca Raton Approves Glass House at 280 E Palmetto Park Road in the City’s Downtown Area

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Boca Raton approves Anthony Perera and ASG’s Glass House condos

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Ventas expands South Florida health care portfolio with $37M Riviera Beach hospital purchase

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CS Ventures buys Worth Avenue luxury storefronts for $30M

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Senior Housing Asset in Lake Worth Trades for $64M

Focus Healthcare Partners has bought Mariposa, a senior housing community in Lake Worth, Fla. Ventas sold the asset for $63.8 million, and a seven-year, $48 million fixed-rate acquisition loan from Freddie Mac was involved, according to public records. JLL Capital Markets represented the seller and procured the buyer. Arbor Senior Living is the new property manager.

Video: RealPage Director of Research & Analysis Provides Multifamily Market Update; Occupancy, Performance, Wildcard Markets

In a recent episode of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show, the show’s host engaged with Carl Whitaker, Director of Research & Analysis, Market Analytics at RealPage, to discuss the multifamily housing market. Their conversation explored current trends, market forecasts, and challenges facing multifamily properties in the U.S., offering valuable insights…

America Needs More Affordable Housing, Not Just Class A Inventory

Highlights: After eight consecutive FOMC meetings of holding the federal funds rate steady at a 23-year high, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark policy rate by 50-bps to the target range of 4.75% to 5.0%.The notion of ‘higher-for-longer’ is well in the rear view mirror as the focus on the Fed’s dual mandate has shifted away from price stability to maximum employment.

How interest rate cuts could impact commercial real estate

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered its benchmark by 50 basis points—the first rate cut in over four years—bringing the target federal funds range to 4.75%–5.25%. The Fed indicated it will continue to decrease interest rates, but the timing and pace of rate decreases will depend on multiple factors, including inflation and other future economic data.

Using bridge loans with agency financing in multifamily

Bridge loans and agency loans can be a powerful combination for multifamily investors. A bridge-to-agency execution pairs flexible short-term capital with competitive long-term financing to help investors implement a business plan with an eye to locking in long-term fixed rates. “Our goal is to provide clients with as many options as possible and let them choose what’s best…

Protect data and residents with multifamily technology

While apartment safety and security is wide ranging, it can be divided into two categories: data security and physical security. Multifamily technology is key to addressing both. Multifamily technology for data security. Multifamily technology can help organizations improve data security by providing real-time visibility into cash flows. The same technology can help prevent rent…

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September 25, 2024

Video: RealPage Director of Research & Analysis Provides Multifamily Market Update; Occupancy, Performance, Wildcard Markets

In a recent episode of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show, the show’s host engaged with Carl Whitaker, Director of Research & Analysis, Market Analytics at RealPage, to discuss the multifamily housing market. Their conversation explored current trends, market forecasts, and challenges facing multifamily properties in the U.S., offering valuable insights for investors, developers, and industry professionals. The discussion was national in scope, and thus may apply less to the Miami and other South Florida markets.

Multifamily Market Performance: Current Trends

Whitaker pointed out that despite economic uncertainty, demand for multifamily housing remains strong. During the first half of 2024, the number of multifamily units absorbed matched the levels seen in 2021, a year that many considered an exceptional period for housing demand. However, Whitaker noted that while demand remains robust, the U.S. is experiencing a 40- to 50-year peak in new supply. This increase in supply is putting downward pressure on rent growth and keeping occupancy rates in the lower 94% range, which some industry veterans still consider healthy.

The show host and Whitaker also discussed how the high volume of new developments—many initiated in 2021 and 2022 before interest rates surged—could delay a return to historically normal occupancy rates for another 12 to 24 months. This reflects a broader trend of the market adjusting to post-pandemic realities while absorbing the influx of new multifamily units.

Future Forecasts: 2025 and Beyond

Looking ahead, Whitaker predicts that 2025 will bring incremental improvements to rent growth and occupancy rates, though they may remain below historical averages. By 2026, the multifamily market could return to the performance levels seen in 2018-2019, but only after another year of substantial new supply coming online.

One critical factor influencing future supply is the slowdown in new construction. Whitaker noted that multifamily housing starts have dropped significantly, reaching levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis. With new projects declining by 20-25% from their peak, Whitaker expects this supply-demand imbalance to ease by 2026, creating opportunities for properties to stabilize and for rents to rise again.

Class A vs. Class B and C Properties

Whitaker shed light on the performance of different property classes. Surprisingly, Class A properties, typically the most sensitive to oversupply, have fared better than expected. This resilience can be attributed to the high cost of single-family homes, which has led many renters to renew leases in Class A buildings rather than transition to homeownership. The trend has been further highlighted by a 50% reduction in the number of tenants moving out to purchase homes, as reported by major real estate investment trusts (REITs).

Meanwhile, Class B and C properties face different challenges. Class B properties are starting to recover after lagging behind in recent years, while Class C units are grappling with economic pressures, including job losses and higher delinquencies. Still, Class A properties pulling demand from the Class B market—and Class B from Class C—is contributing to a rebalancing of affordability across the spectrum.

Submarket Performances: Southeast in Focus

Whitaker also highlighted specific markets that have performed exceptionally well despite high levels of new supply. Charleston, South Carolina, and Savannah, Georgia, have seen strong demand, driven by their appealing local economies and cultural attractiveness. On the other hand, larger markets like Atlanta and Nashville are underperforming due to an influx of inventory and economic headwinds.

Sales Volume and Cap Rates

The conversation then shifted to sales activity and cap rates. Multifamily sales volume has found its floor in 2024, and Whitaker expects a slight rebound in 2025 as investor confidence grows, bolstered by anticipated interest rate cuts. However, valuations remain a key unknown, with most transactions involving either high-end Class A or discounted Class C properties. The middle ground—Class B—has seen limited trading, a trend that may shift as the market stabilizes.

Cap rates in multifamily properties have remained relatively low compared to other asset classes, which Whitaker attributes to ongoing investor interest in the sector. While cap rates are expected to rise slightly with future interest rate cuts, they are unlikely to return to the extreme lows seen in 2020-2021.

Demographic Trends and Long-Term Outlook

Finally, Whitaker emphasized the long-term demographic drivers of multifamily demand, including household formation, job growth, and wage increases. Even though job growth has slowed, wage growth remains strong, contributing to increased affordability for renters. As roommates decouple and form new households, demand for rental units will continue to rise. This demographic shift, combined with the slowing pace of new supply, will likely lead to a housing shortage by the late 2020s.

Conclusion: A Strong Asset Class with Long-Term Potential

In summary, the multifamily market continues to be a resilient and appealing asset class. While the near-term outlook suggests modest improvements, the market is expected to return to more normal conditions by 2026. Investors who can navigate the current supply glut and capitalize on future demand growth will likely see significant opportunities in the coming years.

September 23, 2024

Miami Commercial Real Estate News September 18, 2024: 124-Key Hotel Approved for Doral as 832-Key Hotel is Proposed for Brickell; $172M Financing Scored for Edgewater Tower; More…

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How ELLE Residences Are Bringing a Touch of Europe to Miami

Miami’s condo market is ripe with luxury high-rise developments that attract a high-profile clientele. After Armani, Fendi and many others, ELLE is the latest European brand that wants a slice of the scrumptious Magic City pie. I believe that developments by European brands will set a new standard in Miami’s condo market, said Nuñez y Lugones.

Lease roundup: Ugo Colombo’s CMC scores bagel shop in Coral Gables, AEW lands four retail tenants in Broward

Bagel Emporium & Grille will move its Coral Gables restaurant to CMC Group’s 4000 Ponce building in the city. The bagel and deli shop leased 9,000 square feet on the ground floor at the office and retail building at 4000 Ponce de Leon Boulevard, according to the landlord’s news release. Bagel Emporium, which now is at 1238 South Dixie Highway, will move next year.

MIA Passenger Count Up 10% In 2024, Breaking New Records

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Close Flagler Street To Cars On Weekends, City Resolution Urges

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Vow to pick solid waste plant site goes up in smoke

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Surprise Land Swap Offer Upends Miami-Dade Decision On Site For New Incinerator

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Ansin family’s Sunbeam proposes nearly 3,000-unit resi project in Miramar, amid record apartment pipeline

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Maxx scoops up 145-unit apartment complex in Wilton Manors for $47M, amid multifamily investment sales slowdown

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Construction Starts on Second Phase of Atlantic Crossing at 777 East Atlantic Avenue in Delray Beach

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Macy’s offloads two South Florida retail properties for a combined $28M

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Focus Healthcare drops $64M for Palm Beach County assisted living facility, as senior care deals continue

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West Palm Beach adds hundreds of rentals

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The first rate cut is here: now what?

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Why Light Industrial Properties Will Continue to Shine

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2023 Was Another Challenging Year for Insurance Expenses

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Moody’s Mid-Year Multifamily Performance Review

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Video: Costar Director of Office Analytics Provides Office Market Update; Miami Gets a (Bright Spot) Mention

Office Real Estate Sector Shows Signs of Optimism Despite Persistent Challenges The latest episode of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show featured an insightful discussion about the U.S. office market. Hosted by a seasoned real estate expert, the show welcomed Phil Mobley, National Director of Office Analytics at CoStar. The conversation centered on the state of the office…

The CRE outlook: new normals, the Fed, and the latest performance data

The Commercial Real Estate (CRE) industry has been anxiously awaiting action from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve for several quarters now. Even though the industry has largely begun to emerge from its most recent lows, the first rate cut is crucial to recovery. The question remains, however: will these cuts be enough to get the CRE market back up to speed?

Unpacking the Menu of Inflation Reduction Act Incentives for Commercial Real Estate

Earlier this week the Urban Land Institute Northwest hosted the first in a series of webinars helping CRE owners identify opportunities to leverage Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives and understand how they fit in with other regulatory and financing mechanisms already in place. In this first webinar, “Introduction to IRA Tax Incentives,” Ben Evans at the US Green Building…

Using IRR to evaluate real estate investments

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Converting Office To Industrial Space Is Picking Up Steam

One of the growing trends in commercial real estate is converting vacated office space into industrial use. Since the onset of the pandemic, more employees have been working from home. While office vacancies in some markets are recovering, it’s still nowhere close to 2019 levels. Of course, CRE developers have noticed that trend and are getting creative. During the year-to-date…

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September 18, 2024

Video: Costar Director of Office Analytics Provides Office Market Update; Miami Gets a (Bright Spot) Mention

Office Real Estate Sector Shows Signs of Optimism Despite Persistent Challenges

The latest episode of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show featured an insightful discussion about the U.S. office market. Hosted by a seasoned real estate expert, the show welcomed Phil Mobley, National Director of Office Analytics at CoStar. The conversation centered on the state of the office property sector, from current performance trends to future forecasts, and shed light on the dynamics shaping the market during one of its most challenging periods. Note that though Miami gets a mentioned as a bright spot, this conversation is generally national in scope, thus observations can apply less if at all to Miami and other South Florida Markets.

Positive Absorption—A Sign of Stability?

Phil Mobley began by highlighting a significant development: positive absorption in the office sector for the first time in over two years. While modest at around 2 million square feet, this uptick marked a step toward stability. However, Mobley cautioned that this alone doesn’t signal a full recovery. The national vacancy rate ticked up slightly to 13.8% due to new supply, and CoStar forecasts suggest vacancy may peak around 15.5% before leveling off. Mobley emphasized that not all vacant space is equally competitive, with many older office properties struggling to attract tenants.

Supply Challenges and Conversions

Supply-side dynamics have become more prominent, Mobley noted, as construction slows and building demolitions rise. Interestingly, conversions of office buildings into other uses—such as residential or mixed-use spaces—are also on the rise. While conversions are unlikely to dramatically shift market fundamentals, they are transforming neighborhoods, particularly in cities like Boston.

Mobley also pointed out that new supply deliveries are at historically low levels, which could help ease future vacancy concerns. He projected that annual net new supply could drop to as little as 5 million square feet by 2027. However, he anticipates a rebound in construction activity for specific property types, such as medical offices and owner-occupied campuses.

Geographic and Market Bright Spots – Miami Mentioned as a Bright Spot

The discussion revealed several bright spots in the office market, particularly for smaller tenants and owner-occupants. Professional service firms and locally focused businesses are actively leasing space, driving a surge in smaller lease deals. Additionally, owner-occupiers have become a significant force in the capital markets, accounting for nearly 25% of office sales—a notable increase from historical norms.

When it comes to geographic differences, cities like Houston and Miami stand out. Both markets are seeing higher-than-average leasing activity and have not experienced the same dip in lease size that other cities have seen. Other growth markets, such as Austin and Nashville, continue to perform well, driven by employment growth in knowledge-based industries.

Valuation and Transaction Activity

One of the more striking points Mobley made was the wide range in office property valuations. Buildings in major markets with large vacancies are selling for 25-30% of their pre-pandemic values. However, niche sectors such as medical offices have retained more of their value, with only a 10-15% decrease from their peak. Mobley expects values to continue to adjust downward by another 5-10% in the near future as interest rates stabilize.

Transaction volume has been significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels, with investment sales activity down by about two-thirds. However, the potential for increased distressed sales, particularly in markets with rising delinquency rates, could spur more activity in the coming years.

Looking Ahead: Opportunities Amidst Challenges

While the overall office market may remain subdued for the foreseeable future, Mobley emphasized that there will be opportunities for strategic investors and operators. As demand shifts and vacancy rates stabilize, tactical plays will become increasingly important. Investors focusing on location, tenant needs, and asset management will likely find success, even as the broader market remains challenging.

The show host closed the conversation on a hopeful note, drawing comparisons to other sectors that have rebounded after periods of intense pessimism, such as retail and housing. He suggested that office real estate, though struggling now, could offer significant opportunities for contrarian investors willing to take the plunge.

Conclusion

The U.S. office market is in a state of flux, with performance varying widely based on geography, property type, and tenant demand. While the sector is not expected to fully recover in the short term, the slowdown in new supply and the rise in tactical investment opportunities provide reasons for cautious optimism. As always in commercial real estate, those who can navigate the complexities of the market stand to benefit the most. For users or investors considering office space acquisitions, this may be an ideal time to explore opportunities, particularly in niche markets or for owner-occupants.

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September 16, 2024

Miami Commercial Real Estate News September 11, 2024: Sunset Shoppes Redevelopment Plans Filed; 220-Unit Multifamily Planned for Miami Lakes; More…

Whale & Star Wynwood to Develop Eight-Story Cloud One Hotel, Residences in Miami

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Wynwood’s Whale & Star Site Eyed for Mixed-Use Redevelopment with Hotel and Condos

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German group scores approval for 214-unit hotel with 87 condos in Wynwood, amid district’s development boom

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Construction Starts on ‘The Dolce by Wyndham Miami’ at 1745 James Avenue in Miami Beach

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MG Developer expands into hospitality after buying Miami hotel for $36M

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Brickell Tower Designed By Robert A.M. Stern Architects Gets Giant Construction Loan

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Gus Machado’s family sells late car dealer’s longtime Hialeah dealership for $19M

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Domus Brickell Center Gets FAA Approval, Demolition Permit Issued

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Expansion Proposed For Miami Beach Hotel, Designed By Bjarke Ingels

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Plans Filed for Major Redevelopment of Sunset Place In South Miami with Nine Towers and Mixed-Use Components

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Shops at Sunset Place redevelopment scores South Miami approval

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FAA Approves 764-Foot 848 Brickell Tower Designed By Skidmore, Owings & Merrill

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The Graham Cos. Reshapes Plans for Lakeside Apartments at 14650 Oak Lane, Miami Lakes, FL

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Developer Seeks Approval for ‘Alexandria Gardens’ at 13317 Alexandria Drive in Opa-locka

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848 Brickell Office Tower Approved By FAA At 764 Feet

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Developers Respond to South Florida’s Affordability Crisis with Modern Workforce and Affordable Housing Projects

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Developers Secure $527M Financing for St. Regis Residences Miami in South Brickell

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Florida Developers Score $527M Loan for Miami Condo

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Related, Integra JV pays $100M for waterfront St. Regis Brickell site

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Construction Tops Off at The Standard Residences in Midtown Miami

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Vita at Grove Isle Tops Off Construction, Set for Late 2025 Completion

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Mill Creek Residential Downsizes Second Phase of ‘Moderna Aventura’ in Miami-Dade County

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Acre scores controversial upzoning approval for 337-unit rental project near MiMo’s Legion park

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Lennar in contract to buy Barry University land, downsizes proposed project to 277 townhomes

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Lease roundup: Pipeline Workspaces renews Coral Gables office, French bakery opening in Kendall

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How Miami-Based Pura Vida Took Over Florida and Then New York

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Developer proposes 198-unit Live Local project near Seminole Hard Rock, amid flurry of applications under affordable housing law

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Rreef sells Pembroke Pines multifamily complex for $110M — a 9% discount from purchase price two years ago

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DWS Group Fund Takes $11M Loss On Plantation Apartments

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Pompano Beach Property Lands Financing for Rental-to-Condo Conversion

Plantation, Fla.-based Invesca Development and the Gold Coast Florida Regional Center, an EB-5 immigration investing program center, have secured a $55.2 million bridge loan to convert Envy Pompano Beach into condominiums. The 214-unit Class A rental property is located in Pompano Beach, Fla. Envy Pompano Beach in Pompano Beach, Fla., courtesy of Forman Capital.

MAXX Properties Buys 145-Unit Asset in Wilton Manors

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Schmier adds mixed-use complex to Boca Raton portfolio

Schmier Property Group pumped up its Boca Raton portfolio by acquiring a mixed-use complex for $32 million. An affiliate of Boca Raton-based Schmier, led by principals Brian and Robert Schmier, acquired Boca Financial Plaza at 5530 and 5550 West Glades Road, records and real estate database Vizzda show. Seacoast National Bank provided the buyer with an $18 million…

Jeff Greene fires back at One West Palm’s former project manager

Billionaire Jeff Greene is hitting back at the general contractor previously overseeing his One West Palm mixed-use project. Greene’s development entity 1370 South Ocean on July 29 countersued Coral Gables-based Kast Construction in Palm Beach County Circuit Court. Greene’s complaint alleges Kast mismanaged construction of the planned $3 billion two-tower complex…

Publix bags two more South Florida shopping centers for $67M

Publix filled up its real estate cart with more South Florida shopping centers, paying a combined $67 million for a pair of Palm Beach retail properties anchored by its stores. The sites are part of Publix’s recent $224 million purchase of a seven-shopping center portfolio across Florida that includes two retail properties in Davie acquired for a combined $83 million.

Data story: reimagining offices in a hybrid world

US vacancy rate of office buildings sits at a historic high four years after COVID-19 upended the industry COVID-19 completely upended work dynamics, but none more so than for office workers. Both central business districts (CBDs) and suburban offices became ghost towns. Suddenly, all “non-essential workers” – the typical white-collar worker – began performing their job…

Increasing Office Visits Not A Panacea for Record High Vacancy Rates

Highlights: According to Placer.AI – a startup that uses cell phone data to analyze foot traffic patterns down to the property level – nationwide employee office visits were 27.8% lower than compared to July 2019 and 16.5% higher than July 2023.Perhaps unsurprisingly, among the eleven metros included in Placer’s report, San Francisco’s office recovery has been the most mired…

Coastal Properties are Exposed to Multifaceted Risks, but Solutions Exist

Last week, the Urban Land Institute published Surge – Coastal Resilience and Real Estate, a report unpacking a range of risks  threatening coastal real estate, as well as highlighting solutions already in practice. From sea level rise and coastal storms, to sunny-day flooding, subsidence and erosion, the report put risk into dollar terms, as well as explaining risk pathways…

How the New PFAS Ruling Impacts CRE Transactions

Real estate professionals have a lot of questions about how PFAS may impact their deals EPA’s PFAS ruling of July 8, 2024. The ruling designates two of the most widely used categories of PFAS as hazardous substances under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, also known as Superfund). This means that in order to evaluate…

Florida’s Live Local Act—An Admirable Vision Meets Reality

In the heart of Miami, the Wynwood neighborhood shines as a success story of urban development. Once an industrial area, Wynwood has transformed itself from warehouses and factories to a street-art-laden hub for creativity and innovation. Wynwood’s coffee shops, art galleries, vibrant bars, and cafes have attracted locals, tourists, and a community of entrepreneurs.

Industrial Absorption Set To Grow On Rate Drop Expectations

Industrial net absorption for the second half of 2024 is expected to reach approximately 114 million square feet, up from 67.1 million square feet absorbed during the first half of the year. First-quarter absorption was down substantially from its historic peak in 2021 when it totaled 749.3 million square feet for the year, according to CoStar data. It also lagged absorption recorded in the same per…

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September 11, 2024

Miami Commercial Real Estate News September 4, 2024: Redevelopment of Standard Miami Beach Proposed; Andreessen Horowitz Closes Miami Office; More…

Developer Proposes Multifamily Development in RTZ at 1136 NW 8th Ave in Miami

On Saturday, Florida YIMBY reported on San Sebastian Luxury Homes, a venture seeking to double its density because of new Rapid Transit Zone (RTZ) rules. Now, we’ve learned of another transit-oriented development in Miami-Dade County. The South Florida Business Journal reports that an affiliate of New York-based Urban Builders Collaborative and Lettire Construction…

Mixed-Use Project with Affordable Housing Proposed for 1400 NE 116th Street in Miami

Biscayne Shores Development Group LLC, an affiliate of New York-based Ben-Josef Group Holdings, has plans for a residential project in Miami’s Biscayne Shores neighborhood. The unnamed complex would occupy a vacant 4.10-acre site that the developer purchased for $3.2 million in 2004. If city officials approve the project, it would comprise 561 apartments, with floorplans…

Related, Integra score $527M construction loan for St. Regis Brickell condo project

The Pérez family’s Related Group and its partner, Integra Investments, secured $527 million in construction financing for St. Regis Residences, Miami, a luxury condo development in Brickell. Tyko Capital, a private equity and credit investment management firm led by Adi Chugh, is the lender, according to a press release. The loan will fund construction of the 50-story branded…

So long, Miami: Andreessen Horowitz closes South Beach outpost amid doubt over office market’s viability

Venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz closed its South Beach office, amid looming questions over South Florida’s ability to remain a magnet for out-of-state companies. Andreessen Horowitz exited in May its five-year lease for 8,300 square feet at Barry Sternlicht’s Starwood Capital Group headquarters building at 2340 Collins Avenue in Miami Beach, Bloomberg reported…

Andreessen Horowitz Exits Miami Office In Latest Blow To City’s Tech Dreams

Mayor Francis Suarez’s hopes of making Miami the Silicon Valley of the South and the country’s cryptocurrency capital have been dealt another setback. Andreessen Horowitz, one of Silicon Valley’s most high-profile venture capital firms, has shuttered its office in Miami Beach. The firm, also known as a16z, left its roughly 8,300 SF office at 2340 Collins Ave., a boutique office building…

Saddled with debt woes, Raoul Thomas’ hotel investments are unraveling. But he’s not giving up.

As Raoul Thomas clung to hope that he would recapitalize his $285 million loan on the Waldorf Astoria Washington DC in time to avoid losing the hotel, the financier got tired of waiting. Lender BDT & MSD Partners foreclosed last month after postponing the auction by 45 days to give Thomas time to cure his default. The historic 263-room property in the Old Post Office building…

County plans waste disposal complex at South Dade landfill

Miami-Dade County commissioners are expected to approve this week a $15 million professional services agreement for the transformation of the old South Dade Landfill into an updated Waste Facility Complex for the Department of Solid Waste Management. The project includes the preparation of a complete set of construction documents for a new…

Proposal Intends to Double ‘San Sebastian Luxury Homes’ Garden Style Units at 23220 SW 124th Avenue in Homestead

Developers have filed a pre-application for San Sebastian Luxury Homes, a garden-style housing development in Miami-Dade County’s Goulds neighborhood. In 2023, B2R Builders aimed to have the property rezoned from RU-1 to RU-3M, which would allow for the construction of 39 apartments in two buildings. Yet, the venture never came to fruition. B2R Builders acquired…

Q & A: Michael Swerdlow dishes on Overtown project and other recent deals

For nearly a half-century, Michael Swerdlow has been a driving force in retail and mixed-use development in Miami-Dade County. In the early 2000s, the Coconut Grove-based developer teamed up with Bloomfield Hills, Michigan-based Taubman Centers to build Dolphin Mall, a 1.4 million-square-foot outlet retail and entertainment center in Sweetwater. He cashed out in 2002…

Doral’s Beloved Cow Pasture to be Replaced by Warehouses

While many people visit Doral for its sprawling golf courses and upscale food halls, there’s one longtime attraction that isn’t labeled on Google Maps: the “cow lot.” The sprawling, 175-acre green space — situated on the corner of NW 107th Avenue and NW 41st Street — has long been a familiar landmark for Miami locals. Once owned by siblings Claudia Lemon Cook and Charles Buck…

Barry Sternlicht proposes Bjarke Ingels-designed redevelopment of the Standard Miami Beach

A group of investors led by billionaire Barry Sternlicht is proposing a luxury overhaul and redevelopment of the waterfront Standard hotel in Miami Beach. Starchitect Bjarke Ingels of BIG is designing the project, which is planned for the 100-plus-key hotel at 40 Island Avenue and adjacent properties at 1 and 2 Farrey Lane. Kobi Karp Architecture & Interior Design is the architect…

Plans Submitted To Miami-Dade County for 81-Story Dolce&Gabbana Tower at 888 Brickell Avenue

Plans have been submitted to Miami-Dade planners for the Dolce&Gabbana Tower, an 81-story mixed-use skyscraper designed by Studio Sofield with ODP as the architect of record. Located at 888 Brickell Avenue in Miami’s Brickell district, the tower is set to rise 1,049 feet and will house 259 residential units along with 102,805 square feet of commercial space, including retail…

Panattoni picks up former Miami Herald headquarters in Doral

Panattoni Development jumped into the Doral office submarket, picking up a two-story building that previously housed the headquarters for Miami Herald and El Nuevo Herald. An affiliate of Irvine, California-based Panattoni, led by Carl Panattoni, acquired the 9-acre property at 3511 Northwest 91st Avenue, records and real estate database Vizzda show. The deal breaks down…

Foundation Completed for Baccarat Residences Miami, Marking Key Milestone in 75-Story Condo Tower in Brickell

Related Group and GTIS Partners marked a significant development milestone this past weekend with the foundation pour of the highly anticipated Baccarat Residences Miami. The pour required over 10,000 cubic yards of concrete and 1,500 tons of reinforcing steel, setting a new record for both development firms. This project will be the legendary French crystal brand’s first…

The builders: Ranking Miami’s construction firms

At a busy intersection in North Miami, construction of the 382-unit Manor Biscayne apartment project is underway. So far, the eight-story building is a gray shell with gaping holes for windows and doors, flanked by a pair of cranes. Construction has reached the top floor, and interior finishes are expected to be installed next year, when the project is slated to be completed.

Lease roundup: FIFA opens permanent office in Coral Gables ahead of 2026 World Cup

FIFA expanded its South Florida office ahead of the 2026 World Cup, with plans to keep the space permanently as a base for the Americas. The international soccer governing organization now has a total of 75,000 square feet on four floors at 396 Alhambra Circle in Coral Gables, after adding 15,000 square feet to its previously leased space, Bloomberg reported, citing anonymous…

Three Self-Storage Ventures Proposed for South Florida Region

The construction of self-storage facilities is on the rise in Florida. Our sources point to three separate ventures intending to meet the need for these services. The first is an Extra Space Storage facility headed for the 2.05-acre site at 2401 W. Okeechobee Road in Hialeah. The 113,475-square-foot storage facility will measure three stories above grade, offering 1,025 climate-controlled…

Bradley Houser: Attorney heads Orange Bowl Committee targeting tourism

In February, Bradley D. Houser was officially named the 86th president and chair of the Orange Bowl Committee, and he has not stopped carrying the bowl’s legacy, mission and commitment to the South Florida community.  In this role, Mr. Houser will lead the Orange Bowl Committee’s community outreach, education and youth sports programs, including a full slate of events…

Meet Miami-Dade’s go-to lobbyists for real estate developers

They add skyscrapers to Miami’s skyline and bring new single-family home communities into existence in southwest Miami-Dade. But they’re not the developers. No, they’re the developers’ hired guns: the lobbyists, land use lawyers and consultants who get projects off the ground and across the finish line. They know the ins and outs of municipal and county government and have…

Real Estate Developer Files Application to Build Miami Apartments and Commercial Space

Biscayne Shores Development Group LLC has filed a pre-application with Miami-Dade County to build a multifamily and commercial building. The affiliate of Ben-Josef Group is targeting a vacant 4.1-acre site, which it bought for $3.2 million in 2004, located on the west side of Biscayne Boulevard at 1400 Northeast 116th Street, according to a report from the South Florida…

New 14-Story Apartment Building Proposed Near Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood

A new apartment building has been proposed directly across the street from the iconic Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Hollywood, utilizing Florida’s Live Local Act to bring more residential units to the area. The proposed development, named Guitar View, is slated for a 38,545-square-foot lot at 5200 S. State Road 7, currently occupied by a used car business called Car Factory Outlet.

Pembroke Pines condo complex deemed structurally unsafe to hit the market

A Pembroke Pines condo complex that was evacuated following monthslong structural safety concerns and allegations of prior board members’ mismanagement will hit the market. Heron Pond, a 304-unit complex at 8400 Southwest First Street, will go up for sale and the condo association will be dissolved, after engineering reports found extensive deterioration that needs…

Condo owners opposing sale of Pembroke Pines’ Heron Pond complex lose first court fight

A pair of condo owners at the embattled Heron Pond complex in Pembroke Pines lost their first court fight against the receiver’s plan to list the property for sale. The 25-acre Heron Pond, at 8400 Southwest First Street, is home to 304 units in 19 two-story buildings. Since last summer, the city has slammed Heron Pond with multiple unsafe structure notices, rendering six buildings…

Citrix sells its Fort Lauderdale HQ for $37M, leases back office space

Cloud computing and software company Citrix sold its headquarters in Fort Lauderdale for $37 million, leasing back its office space. Citrix sold the nine-story building at 899 West Cypress Creek Road, six-story building at 851 West Cypress Creek Road and adjacent garage, according to records and real estate database Vizzda. The buyer is an entity tied to Maksim…

Publix’s $83M double play: Grocer adds two Broward shopping centers to South Florida portfolio

Publix continues expanding its South Florida portfolio, picking up a pair of Davie shopping centers for a combined $83 million. The Lakeland-based grocery chain paid $50.7 million for Davie Shopping Center at 4601-4777 South University Drive, and $32 million for Regency Square Shopping Plaza 4801-4995 and 4997 Southwest 148th Avenue, records and real estate…

Could Mega Publix Supermarkets Be Coming to Broward?

Florida’s largest supermarket chain is on the path to expanding even further throughout the state — and it’s making huge moves in Broward. Publix has just purchased two Davie shopping centers for a combined total of $83 million. According to records acquired by the Real Deal, the grocery chain paid $50.7 million for Davie Shopping Center located at 4601-4777 S. University…

Bridge Loan Secured for Condo Conversion in Pompano Beach’s Growing Koi Community

Forman Capital has provided a $55.22 million bridge loan to facilitate the conversion of 214 Class A rental units into for-sale condominium residences in Pompano Beach, one of South Florida’s rapidly developing cities. The Envy project comprises two 11-story buildings located at 450 E. Atlantic Blvd. between Dixie Highway and U.S. 1, and is part of the larger Koi…

BH and Related score design board approval for oceanfront Pompano Beach condo-hotel project

BH Group and Related Group can plow ahead with a planned oceanfront condo-hotel project in Pompano Beach after securing a design board’s approval. The Pompano Beach Architectural Appearance Committee on Tuesday approved a site plan for a 24-story tower with a parking podium that would include 77 condominiums and 303 hotel rooms at 1 North Ocean Boulevard…

Invesca lands $55M loan for rental-to-condo conversion in Pompano Beach, aiming to match demand

Invesca Development Group landed a $55.2 million loan for an apartment-to-condo conversion of a 214-unit complex in Pompano Beach. The plan to switch the Envy complex, completed in 2021, at 425-475 East Atlantic Boulevard, comes amid continued demand for condos and a slowdown of the multifamily market in South Florida. Invesca and Gold Coast Florida Regional Center…

Buyers Sue To Get Their Deposits Back At Long-Delayed Boca Raton Mandarin Oriental

Construction of the 86 condos and 164 hotel rooms at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel & Residences, Boca Raton was originally scheduled to be complete in 2020. Four years past its original delivery date, the project remains an unfinished shell, with developer Penn-Florida Cos. promising to finish construction by the end of next year. But some of its hopeful residents are tired of waiting.

West Palm Beach Development Group Seeks $10.6M Incentive for 25-story Mixed-Use Project with Affordable Housing in Downtown West Palm Beach

A development group is seeking up to $10.6 million in incentives to incorporate affordable and workforce housing into its proposed 25-story mixed-use project ‘Fern & Gardenia’ designed by Miami-based Arquitectonica in downtown West Palm Beach. The city’s Community Redevelopment Agency (CRA) Board will review the term sheet for tax increment financing (TIF) from WPB Fern…

Construction Starts on ‘the Spruce’ Apartments at 2501 Spruce Avenue in West Palm Beach

Fort Lauderdale-based Affiliated Development has broken ground on the Spruce apartments, an affordable/workforce housing venture. The South Florida Business Journal reports that the Spruce will measure eight stories above grade, offering 270 apartments. Eighteen homes will be reserved for those earning 70 to 80 percent of the area median income (AMI), while another…

Affiliated Development Breaks Ground in West Palm Beach

Affiliated Development has launched construction on The Spruce in West Palm Beach, Fla., after closing $50 million in financing. Situated between 24th and 25th Streets in the heart of Northwood Village, The Spruce will be a 270-unit, eight-story mid-rise building located near Northwood’s shopping, dining and nightlife. Apartments will be offered in one-, two- and three-bedroom…

Affiliated scores $50M construction loan for West Palm multifamily project

Affiliated Development started construction of a planned West Palm Beach apartment building after nabbing a $50 million loan. Bank of Montreal provided the financing for The Spruce, an eight-story multifamily project with 270 units being developed on a 1.5-acre site at 2501 Spruce Avenue, a press release states. Fort Lauderdale-based Affiliated plans to complete The Spruce…

The last piece of paradise: Palm Beach battles for its only major dev site left

The room burst into applause. That’s not typical for development review meetings. But Maggie Zeidman, then-president of Palm Beach’s Town Council, had just suggested a new park in the heart of the island, one block away from the beach. “Whoever owns it gets to make it a park,” she said in the January meeting. “So I just leave it out there for you, if you can make that happen…

Bullish on Palm Beach County, Banesco USA brings local expertise to booming C&I and CRE Industries

Miami real estate may be grabbing headlines, but its neighbor to the north is also capturing the spotlight. Long known for its agricultural production, Palm Beach County is rapidly transforming into a major hub for high-end residential, finance and commercial investment, growth that continues to accelerate in the wake of the pandemic. TRD sat down with Banesco USA Senior…

AvalonBay plans Lake Worth Beach multifamily project adjacent to Publix-anchored shopping plaza

AvalonBay Communities acquired a multifamily development site in Lake Worth Beach that is next to a built-in retail component anchored by a Publix store. Arlington, Virginia-based AvalonBay is planning Northlake Promenade Apartments on a 9-acre site the firm acquired for $16.5 million, records and real estate database Vizzda show. The vacant property is adjacent…

Video: Atlanta Fed Commercial Real Estate Expert Brian Bailey’s View on the Economy, Lending, and the Market

In a recent episode of “America’s Commercial Real Estate Show” the show host engaged in a deep conversation with Brian Bailey, a commercial real estate expert from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Their discussion provided valuable insights into the current state of the commercial real estate market, touching on key economic factors, market trends, and strategies…

CMBS Troubled Loan Tracker: Delinquency Rates Nationally Approaching Pandemic Highs

Conduit loan delinquencies ticked up for the tenth consecutive month to reach 6.5%. The rate is now 1.9% above their post-pandemic low of 4.6% in May of 2022 and 4% above their pre-pandemic low of 2.5% in March 2020. Large-loan, single-asset, single-borrower (LLSASB) has followed a similar double-hump pattern, and both segments of the market are marching toward their…

2024 Q3 State of the Property Insurance Market

Time really does fly by. As you read this, you’ll have finished off the first half of the year, celebrated our nation’s independence and engulfed yourself in a transitioning excess and surplus lines property market that picked up a fair amount of speed and momentum as the year progressed. I was at a talk recently, and the speaker indicated that if he had one wish, he would hope to be…

The Fed: Beige Book Reports Slowing Activity

The new Beige Book from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta reports that economic activity slowed a bit in the Southeast during July and the first half of August compared to the previous six weeks. Still, employment in the district edged higher, even as some contacts said they were curtailing hiring for the rest of 2024. Most firms told the Atlanta Fed that it became easier to find talented…

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September 4, 2024

Video: Atlanta Fed Commercial Real Estate Expert Brian Bailey’s View on the Economy, Lending, and the Market

In a recent episode of “America’s Commercial Real Estate Show” the show host engaged in a deep conversation with Brian Bailey, a commercial real estate expert from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Their discussion provided valuable insights into the current state of the commercial real estate market, touching on key economic factors, market trends, and strategies for navigating the complexities of this capital-intensive industry. He noted that these were his opinions, not necessarily those of his colleagues at the Atlanta Fed or the Board of Governors. It also should be noted that the conversation is generally national in scope, thus some comments and observations may apply less or even not at all to Miami area commercial property markets.

Economic Context and Market Shifts

The conversation began with an overview of the current economic landscape and its impact on commercial real estate. Bailey highlighted that despite market volatility and a slowing economy, the overall growth remains healthy. The rapid rise in interest rates had previously posed significant challenges, particularly in financing commercial real estate projects. However, recent declines in long-term rates are creating a more favorable environment, potentially easing the pressure on capital-intensive transactions.

Bailey pointed out a significant issue that had emerged due to the economic changes: the disconnect between appraised property values and lenders’ expectations. This disparity has created uncertainty, leading to more cautious underwriting practices and, in some cases, stalling transactions. The reduction in long-term rates, however, may signal a turning point, offering some relief to investors and lenders alike.

Challenges in Valuation and Appraisals

One of the most critical aspects of the discussion revolved around property appraisals. Both Bull and Bailey shared experiences of encountering appraisals that were either significantly overvalued or undervalued, reflecting the challenges appraisers face in a rapidly changing market. Bailey noted that this inconsistency in valuations complicates decision-making for both lenders and borrowers. The conversation underscored the importance of accuracy in appraisals and the potential consequences of errors, especially in a volatile market.

Bailey shared an example from right here in South Florida, where three different brokerage companies provided vastly different valuations for the same office building, ranging from $8 million to $32 million. He noted that the wide discrepancy highlights the challenges facing the industry in establishing reliable property values, particularly in uncertain economic times. I’d correct Bailey on this by noting that the variance is likely among the judgement of brokers.  I see, almost daily, properties with asking prices that area clearly 50%, 100%, or even more in excess of the most generous valuation, though I don’t see this among more reputable commercial brokers. In any case, brokers provide opinions of value, not appraisals. Appraisers exist for a reason.

The Future of Office Space

The future of office space was another focal point of the discussion. Both Bull and Bailey acknowledged the structural shift in the office market, with some properties potentially facing demolition or conversion due to declining demand. However, they also noted signs of recovery, with some companies already finding themselves out of space due to overly conservative efficiency measures. The conversation hinted at a possible resurgence in office demand as more companies recognize the value of in-person collaboration, networking, and training.

Loan Maturities and the Road Ahead

The looming issue of loan maturities was another major topic. With over $2 trillion in commercial real estate loans maturing in the coming years, there is significant concern about how these will be managed, particularly given the current valuation challenges. Bailey explained that many lenders are adopting a cooperative approach, working with borrowers who are in good standing to adjust loan terms or seek additional collateral to mitigate risk.

However, for borrowers who are struggling, the situation may lead to increased foreclosures and note sales as lenders seek to offload risk. The conversation emphasized the importance of early communication between borrowers and lenders to navigate these challenges effectively.

Final Thoughts and Strategic Advice

As the discussion drew to a close, both Bull and Bailey offered strategic advice for those involved in commercial real estate. Bailey stressed the importance of early engagement with lenders, particularly for borrowers facing upcoming loan maturities. He also highlighted the need for lenders to evolve their risk management practices in response to the current market dynamics, particularly with regard to insurance and property appraisals.

Bull echoed these sentiments, advising borrowers to be proactive, transparent, and collaborative with their lenders. He also encouraged lenders to build strong relationships with borrowers, particularly in challenging times, as these relationships can be crucial for navigating economic downturns.

Conclusion

The episode provided a comprehensive overview of the current state of commercial real estate, offering valuable insights for investors, lenders, and other industry stakeholders. The discussion underscored the importance of adaptability, accuracy in valuations, and proactive communication in navigating the complexities of today’s market. As the industry continues to evolve, these strategies will be essential for achieving success in the ever-changing landscape of commercial real estate.

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September 2, 2024

Miami Commercial Real Estate News August 28, 2024: Citadel Unveils 1,032′ Supertall Conceptual Plan; 1,049′ Dolce&Gabbana Tower Submitted for Review; Condo Buyouts Stall; More…

Foundation Completed for One Park Tower at SoLé Mia in North Miami

Turnberry has completed the foundation pour for ONE Park Tower by Turnberry, a 33-story ultra-luxury condominium tower within the 184-acre master-planned community of SoLé Mia in North Miami. The tower, located at 2411 Laguna Circle, will feature 292 residences overlooking a seven-acre Crystal Lagoon® and natural landscapes. The project is designed by Arquitectonica…

Citadel Unveils Conceptual Plans for 1,032-Foot Super-Tall Tower at 1201 Brickell Bay Drive

Conceptual plans for Citadel’s new supertall tower in Brickell have been revealed, marking a significant addition to Miami’s ever-evolving skyline. The tower, set to rise 1,032 feet above sea level at 1201 Brickell Bay Drive, is the first phase of a multi-phase development that aims to reshape the landscape of Miami’s bustling financial district. The property is approximately 4.17 acres…

Conceptual Plans Revealed For 1,032′ Supertall At Citadel’s 1201 Brickell Bay Drive Property

Conceptual plans have just been revealed for a new Brickell supertall. Details of the multi-phase project were unveiled in a filing with county planners this morning. 1201 Brickell Bay Drive is planned to rise 1,032 feet above sea level with 54 stories, and include: 1,293,373 square feet of office area 212 hotel rooms and accessory uses, including health spa, fitness club, ballroom…

Details, renderings revealed for billionaire Ken Griffin’s $1B Miami supertall

Billionaire hedge fund manager Ken Griffin spent $670 million assembling land in Miami’s Brickell neighborhood in 2022, generating huge interest in his companies’ move to South Florida. Now his attorney has filed more detailed plans for the proposed supertall, a mixed-use tower with nearly 1.3 million square feet of office space, a 212-room hotel, fine dining restaurants with 915 seats…

Plans Revealed For Citadel’s Miami Supertall Headquarters Tower

Citadel CEO Ken Griffin filed plans for the hedge fund’s 1,032-foot-tall Miami headquarters, revealing plans for a tapering supertall with office space topped by a hotel. The hedge fund’s leader is planning a tower at 1201 Brickell Bay Drive with 1.3M SF of office space and 212 hotel rooms across its highest 14 floors, according to records submitted to Miami-Dade County Monday.

Santander To Demolish Brickell Office To Make Way For 41-Story Tower

At least four office towers are planned in Miami’s financial district of Brickell, with some developers searching for anchor tenants for their properties before beginning construction. Meanwhile, Santander Bank is plowing ahead. The Madrid-based bank will begin demolition of its Brickell office building in the next few weeks to make way for a new 41-story tower, it announced…

Watson Island developers plan two hotels, residences, more

Two Miami developers are teaming up to update a 20-year-old vision and revive 10.8 acres of city-owned land on the south side of Watson Island with reduced density and more open, walkable space for the public, including a 1,000-foot waterfront promenade along the bay. This November, city residents will be asked to approve Watson Harbour, a mixed-use development…

Doral OKs 552 residences, 10% for workforce

Development plans for Doral Parc: Midtown Doral Phase IV, V & VI are moving forward in the most northern part of Doral. Doral city officials approved the mixed-use development of 552 units across three 10-story buildings. Situated on the east side of Northwest 107th Avenue, between Northwest 86th and Northwest 90th streets, Doral Parc is to feature a mix of one-, two…

MG expands development pipeline into Doral

MG Developer is adding Doral to its mixed-use project pipeline. The Coral Gables-based firm and its partner, Ernesto de Luca, who owns a printing company in Doral, are planning Doral Parc, a complex of three buildings with 552 apartments, nearly 23,000 square feet of ground-floor retail and two garages, a press release states. The city of Doral recently approved the mixed-use…

Developer proposes 119-unit multifamily project near Miami’s Culmer Metrorail stop, amid record apartment pipeline

A developer proposes a 119-unit multifamily building near Miami’s Culmer Metrorail Station, amid a record South Florida apartment construction pipeline. New York-based Urban Builders Collaborative, through an affiliate, wants to develop the 16-story building on a 0.8-acre vacant site at 1136 Northwest Eighth Avenue, according to the developer’s application filed this month…

Condo Buyouts Stall As Developers Balk At Sellers Looking To ‘Hit The Jackpot

South Florida’s thousands of aging condos are at a crossroads. For unit owners it’s a crisis that will likely force hundreds of people out of their homes. For developers, it’s an opportunity to snap up some of the region’s most desirable development sites to build new luxury towers. Deadlines loom for condo owners to pay for expensive repairs mandated by a new law, creating…

Michael Lewis: It’s time for Florida to dig its oldest landmark out of the grave

More than 25 years ago, Miami Today reporter Marilyn Bowden revealed that an archaeologist’s dig at the mouth of the Miami River had uncovered a stone structure. Six months later the Miami Circle turned into a national sensation that everyone waited to see. Two weeks ago, we reported that parking is still lacking to get visitors to the site, where they still can’t see Miami’s most…

FIFA Expands Its Coral Gables Office Space As Workers Relocate From Zurich

Soccer’s international governing body leased another full floor to expand its recently opened office at 396 Alhambra Circle in Coral Gables, a spokesperson for Blanca Commercial Real Estate, which handles leasing at the property, confirmed. Bloomberg first reported the new deal, citing anonymous sources. FIFA, headquartered in Zurich, already has around 350 staff…

Resul Sahinol, Consul General for the Republic of Türkiye in Miami, Seeks to butild trade, investment, cultural ties with Türkiye

Resul Sahinol arrived in Miami in October 2023 after working in Washington as the Deputy Chief of Mission at the Turkish embassy. After serving ten months as the Chargé d’Affaires in Miami, Mr. Sahinol was officially appointed the Consul General for the Republic of Türkiye in Miami at the beginning of August. Established in 2014, the Turkish consulate in Miami caters…

$5.2M Sale of 17.5K Office Building in Miami Brokered

A broker has brokered the $5.2 million sale of an office building located at 2150 Coral Way in Miami. Jeremy Larkin and Craig Merlin of NAI Miami | Fort Lauderdale represented the seller, an entity doing business as Ocean Coral Way Inc., in the transaction. Alphatur LLC acquired the property, which totals 17,450 square feet and is situated along…

1,049-Foot Dolce&Gabbana Tower Submitted For Review

Plans for the Dolce&Gabbana Tower were submitted to Miami-Dade planners last week. According to a letter attached to the application, the developer is requesting administrative site plan review for the new building. The new filing shows the tower will rise 81 stories and include: 259 residential units 102,805 square feet of commercial uses, including retail, restaurant…

Coastland plans 371-unit rental project with workforce housing near Tropical Park, amid swell of below-market proposals

Coastland Residential plans a 371-unit multifamily project with workforce housing near Miami-Dade County’s Tropical Park, as developers continue to bet on below-market apartments. Pinecrest-based Coastland wants to build an eight-story building with 7,500 square feet of retail at 4201, 4321, 4351 and 4383 Southwest 75th Avenue in an unincorporated area…

Lewis Swezy proposes 132-unit low-income multifamily project, as developers seize on affordable housing

Developer Lewis Swezy proposes a 132-unit, age-restricted affordable apartment project in Miami-Dade County’s Princeton neighborhood. The plan comes as South Florida developers continue to seize on low-income housing, which can better withstand the current economic climate of elevated interest rates, as well as skittish debt and equity funding.

Blue Suede nabs $27M loan to update two Miami Beach hotels and apartment building

Blue Suede Hospitality Group landed a $27 million loan to refurbish two Miami Beach hotels and an apartment building undergoing renovations. Franklin BSP Realty Trust, an affiliate of New York-based asset management firm Benefit Street Partners, provided the two-year mortgage secured by Kayak Miami Beach at 2216 Park Avenue, Blue Moon Hotel at 944 Collins Avenue

Yakov Cohen adds Aventura big box store to North Miami-Dade holdings

Yakov Cohen expanded his holdings in northeast Miami-Dade County after paying $17.7 million for an Aventura big box store. An entity managed by Cohen and partner, Shimon Bouskila, both of whom are based in Sunny Isles Beach, acquired the single-story, 28,376-square-foot building at 18495 Biscayne Boulevard, records show. The deal breaks down to roughly $624 a square foot.

Foundation Pour Completed For 75-Story Baccarat Tower In Brickell

A foundation pour took place this weekend for Brickell’s 75-story Baccarat Residences tower. The pour began on Friday and continued into Saturday, according to Due Italiani a Miami. Roads were closed during the pour. Baccarat is approved by the FAA for a permanent height of 848 feet above ground. The development will include 324 tower residences, 8 penthouses and 28…

Foundation Pour Completed For 65-Story E11EVEN Beyond Tower

A foundation pour was completed over the weekend at the E11EVEN Residences Beyond tower in Park West, according to the developer’s social media. A total of 760 concrete trucks were pouring 6,800 cubic yards of concrete, the post said. It is the second E11EVEN tower to begin construction on the same block. Both towers are planned to top off at the same height of 699 feet…

Construction Now Underway At 58-Story Downtown Miami Tower, Downtown 6

Construction is now underway at the 58-story Downtown 6 tower, according to the SFBJ. Completion is expected in about two years, the report said. The tower is being built on the same block where the two 52-story Downtown 5th towers were completed in 2021 by the same developer. A total of 1,042 apartments are included in those towers. Also on the same block, the 70-story…

Miami at Low End Florida’s Most Expensive Apartment Markets, Ranked by Rent-to-Income

Palm Bay, located along the Atlantic coastline, just about an hour southeast of Orlando, claimed the state’s highest… Meanwhile, only one of Florida’s largest apartment markets boasted a rent-to-income ratio below the national norm: Lakeland at 22% as of July. Deltona, Tampa and Miami also posted rent-to-income ratios within 100 basis points of the national norm.

MG Developer Receives Approval For 552-Unit, Mixed-Use Development In Doral As It Expands Into The City Of Doral

MG Developer, one of South Florida’s most prominent residential developers, has received approval from the City of Doral for Doral Parc: Midtown Doral Phase IV, V & VI, a premier mixed-use development with 552 units across three 10-story buildings, as well as 22,740 square feet of retail throughout two new parking garages. This ambitious project…

Developers Secure $178 Million Refinancing for Society Wynwood

National development firm Property Markets Group (PMG), in collaboration with Canadian-based private equity firm Greybrook Realty Partners (Greybrook), has secured $178 million in refinancing for Society Wynwood, a 10-story mixed-use building designed by MKDA at 176 Northwest 25th Street in Miami’s Wynwood Arts District. Eastdil Secured arranged the financing…

Onicx Lands Refi for Miami Medical Office Building

The 104,238-square-foot Mercy Medical Arts building at 3683 S Miami Avenue came online in 2017. The Onicx Group has received $20.7 million in refinancing for Mercy Medical Arts, a 104,238-square-foot medical office building in Miami. Lake Michigan Credit Union provided the loan, according to Miami-Dade County records. Berkadia Medical & Life Sciences…

FAA Approves 637-Foot Height for Edge House Miami at 1825 Northeast 4th Avenue in Edgewater

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has approved the height for Edge House Miami, a new 55-story condominium tower planned at 1825 Northeast 4th Avenue in Miami’s Edgewater neighborhood. According to an FAA determination letter issued on August 19, the tower can rise 637 feet above ground or 641 feet above sea level. Designed by Kobi Karp Architecture & Interior…

Doral Approves Mixed-Use Development with 552 Units and Retail Space at Midtown Doral

MG Developer has received approval from the City of Doral for Doral Parc: Midtown Doral Phase IV, V & VI, a mixed-use development that will include 552 units in three 10-story buildings and 22,740 square feet of retail space in two new parking garages. This project is a joint venture between MG Developer and Latin American entrepreneur Ernesto De Lucas. As Doral continues…

Funding keeps flowing: Two recently completed Miami mixed-use projects score loans totaling $237M

A pair of mixed-use projects built in the last two years in Miami’s Wynwood scored loans totaling $237 million. In the larger deal, funds managed by Ares Management and Monarch Alternative Capital provided a $178 million loan to an affiliate of New York and Miami-based Property Markets Group, or PMG, and Toronto-based Greybrook Realty Partners.

Site Work Permit Issued for 56-Story ‘Villa Miami’ Condo Tower at 710 Northeast 29th Street in Edgewater

Miami’s Building Department has issued a site work permit for Villa Miami in Edgewater, marking a significant step forward in the development process. The permit, issued on August 2, comes with a revision filed on the same day and allows for excavation, piles, site improvement, and soil improvement. Moss & Associates is listed as the contractor on the permit, covering 22k sf…

Developer Royal Palm Companies Plans Branded Condo-Hotel In Miami With Up To 360 Units

Planning is now underway by a developer to build a branded condo-hotel in Miami, according to a press release. A rendering shows the building will have around 30 floors. The developer is working with the City of Miami to increase the site’s density to accommodate up to 360 units, the release said. An $8.36 million pre-development bridge loan was secured for the property…

Maturing Industrial Outdoor Storage Sector Sees New Opportunities For Growth

The industrial outdoor storage asset type has been maturing over the past several years and is now reaching a stage of transition that is creating new opportunities to create value for existing owners and new market entrants. Beginning about five years ago, investors began flocking to the IOS market and institutionalizing the asset class via aggregation. Smaller investment…

$8.36M Bridge Loan Secured for Condo-Hotel Development in Miami’s Arts & Entertainment District

Forman Capital has issued an $8.36 million pre-development bridge loan secured by a residential development site along North Miami Avenue in Miami’s Arts & Entertainment District. The borrower, Royal Palm Companies (RPC), led by Dan Kodsi, plans to develop a 40-story condo-hotel on the properties, likely under the Elevate brand. The transaction was finalized on August 16…

Dan Kodsi reworks plans for Miami resi tower, seeks density boost

Dan Kodsi’s Royal Palm Companies is reworking plans for a residential tower in Miami’s Arts & Entertainment District. When Kodsi and his former partner, Rafael Pecchio, acquired the site at 1317 to 1353 North Miami Avenue two years ago, they planned to build a 200-unit apartment building. Now, Royal Palm is moving forward with a roughly 30-story condo tower, joining other…

Meta Development launches sales for boutique Coconut Grove condos

Meta Development launched sales for a boutique Kobi Karp-designed condo project in Coconut Grove, with prices starting at $2.5 million. Meta, a joint venture between Miami-based Lucid Investment Group and Brazil’s Iron Capital, is planning Opus Coconut Grove for the site at 3137 Southwest 27th Avenue, according to a press release. The planned six-story building will have 14 units…

Rockpoint Lands $59M For Strata Wynwood

Rockpoint, a Boston-based private equity firm, secured a $59M loan from Fannie Mae for the residential portion of the mixed-use Strata Wynwood, according to a release. Strata Wynwood, at 21 NE 22nd St., was completed by CIM Group in 2022. It includes 257 apartments, 60K SF of creative office space atop a 474-car parking garage. CIM Group sold the property to Rockpoint…

Continental Realty Corp. Sells Davie Shopping Center for $22M

Completed in 1984, Ridge Plaza encompasses four buildings spread on some 13 acres. Image courtesy of JLL Capital Markets Continental Realty Corp. has sold Ridge Plaza, a 138,554-square-foot regional shopping center in Davie, Fla. An affiliate of JBL Asset Management purchased the asset for $22.3 million. JLL Capital Markets represented the seller. The shopping center…

Continental Realty sells Davie shopping plaza for $22M, amid uptick in retail deals

JBL Asset Management, through an affiliate, bought the Ridge Plaza retail center in Davie for $22.3 million, marking an uptick in shopping center deals. Continental Realty Corporation sold the 138,600-square-foot property at 9000-9200 West State Road 84, according to a news release from the seller’s broker. Danny Finkle and Eric Williams were part of the…

Alliance HP’s downtown Fort Lauderdale office tower faces foreclosure

Alliance HP could lose a downtown Fort Lauderdale office tower to foreclosure. An affiliate of Atlanta-based lender Trimont on Tuesday filed a foreclosure complaint in Broward County Circuit Court that alleges Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania-based Alliance HP defaulted on a $59.2 million mortgage that matured in October of last year, according to real estate database Vizzda…

‘Oaklyn Crossing’ to Offer 101 Units and Retail Space at 3520 N.W. 9 Ave. in Broward County

About two acres of riverfront land in Broward County could be developed into an affordable housing development. Oaklyn Crossing (not to be confused with “Oaklyn”) would measure 62 feet high, offering 101 residences. The South Florida Business Journal reports that units would range from studio to two-bedroom floorplans. Other features include 170 parking spots and…

Grant Cardone is on a Broward multifamily buying binge, paying more than $200M for two projects

Grant Cardone can’t get enough of Broward County. In recent months, funds affiliated with his Aventura-based Cardone Capital acquired two apartment complexes in Fort Lauderdale and Plantation as part of a half billion-dollar shopping spree across Florida. Cardone, a crowd-funding multifamily syndicator and business advice guru is also possibly buying a third Broward…

Buyers sue developer of long delayed Mandarin Oriental Boca Raton

Frank and Nancy Scala signed a contract for a condo at Mandarin Oriental in Boca Raton, and expected to close on their unit in June 2021. That year, the Scalas sold their waterfront home in Boca Raton. They provided the developer with a nearly $1.3 million deposit. But the closing date for their $4.1 million condo came and went. According to their contract with the developer…

Boca Raton couple siphoned over $40M from investors in a real estate fraud, SEC alleges

A Boca Raton couple siphoned off most of the $56 million they raised from 660 people nationwide for purported real estate investments, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit. West Palm Beach-based Wells Real Estate Investment, company CEO Janalie C. Bingham and her husband, Jean Joseph, promised investors their funds would go toward purchasing…

Tribune parent’s real estate arm expands West Palm Beach industrial portfolio

Twenty Lake Holdings, a subsidiary of Tribune Publishing owner Alden Global Capital, is expanding its industrial portfolio in West Palm Beach. An affiliate of Stamford, Connecticut-based Twenty Lake purchased five warehouses spanning 57,282 square feet at 601 Roseland Drive, records and real estate database Vizzda show. The deal breaks down to $262 per square foot.

Vanderbilt, Trinity land $96M refi for West Palm office tower, as South Florida financing keeps flowing

The joint venture that owns Northbridge Centre in downtown West Palm Beach, known as the “Darth Vader building,” landed a $96 million refinancing for the office tower. Vanderbilt Office Properties and Trinity Capital Advisors scored the refinancing for the tower at 515 North Flagler Drive from BMO, according to a news release from the landlords’ broker.

Q&A with a U.S. Practice Lead for Hospitality and Leisure

Like many other sectors of commercial real estate, the hospitality industry is entering a new normal as it seeks firm footing after severe ups and downs brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Hospitality now must deal with less business travel, a cooling of the leisure travel market and higher costs. In June, Scotsman Guide spoke with Tom Rowley, an executive managing…

The Warehouse Of The Future: Where Sci-Fi Meets Supply Chain

Traditional warehouses are dangerous workplaces. Warehouse injuries and illnesses nearly doubled from 42,500 to 80,500 between 2016 and 2021. In 2022, forklift accidents caused 73 deaths and thousands of lost work hours in 2021-2022. While the increase in the number of warehouses during these five years may inflate the statistics, the raw numbers still paint a hazardous work…

BNN Bloomberg Video: Christian Ulbrich sees real estate prices stabilizing globally

The Conversation: A Deep Dive into the Real Estate Sector. In a recent segment on BNN Bloomberg’s Trading Day, Amber Kanwar engaged in an insightful conversation with Christian Ulbrich, Global CEO of Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), about the current state of the real estate market, the impact of potential rate cuts, and the evolving trends in the sector. The discussion provided…

Office Loan Maturity Monitor: U.G.L.Y.: Underperformance Grows vs Last Year

Highlights: A total of $880 million across 28 CMBS office loans reached fully extended maturity in July with a dismal payoff rate of 14%. Maturities with debt yield below 8% and limited lease rollover have underperformed but there are very few observations. Loan size continues to be a significant factor in whether or not a loan pays off but all sizes trail 2023. Spotlight: How a pickup…

Moody’s Identifies Oversupplied Multifamily Markets

Highlights: As of the second quarter of 2024, our 82 primary multifamily markets were evaluated based on their level of excess supply (or demand). Excess supply was measured by total completions less net absorption on a rolling 12-month basis – positive values imply excess supply and negative values excess demand. Excess supply (or demand) was then expressed as a percentage…

National Heat Strategy’s Vision Supports Resilience for CRE

July 22, 2024 was the hottest day on record, with extreme heat baking various parts of the US and the world throughout this summer. Known as the silent killer, extreme heat is the top weather-related cause of death in the US. While it sometimes gets less attention than storms and wildfires which cause structural damage and substantial insurance claims, extreme heat also…

Study: Florida Gained the Most High Income Households Last year

Florida is by far the top state where high income households are moving to, according to a recent analysis. SmartAsset analyzed IRS data from the 2021-2022 tax year for the study. Florida had a net inflow of 29,771 high-income households during the period. That includes 46,874 arriving high-income households, and 17,103 moving elsewhere. The average income of high-earning…

Video: MSCI Real Assets Chief Economist Jim Costello Discusses U.S. Commercial Real Estate Distress Tracker; Updates, Forecast, & Strategies

The commercial real estate market has been under the microscope lately, especially with the specter of distress looming large across various sectors. This topic took center stage in a recent episode of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show featuring Jim Costello, Chief Economist at MSCI Real Assets. The discussion provided critical insights into the state of distressed assets…

JP Morgan: Three reasons we see a potential comeback in commercial real estate nationally

The menacing commercial real estate (CRE) headlines just won’t stop. “U.S. office prices headed for ‘severe crash.” “Wall Street braces for commercial real estate time bomb.” The headlines suggest things will likely get worse. We disagree. CRE property prices have fallen 12%, in aggregate, since peaking in 2022. Following the fastest Federal Reserve (Fed) hiking cycle since the early 1980s…

Florida’s top affordable housing issues

The affordable housing statistics in Florida are staggering. The Sunshine State has only 25 affordable and available rental homes for every 100 extremely low-income renters, according to The Gap report from the National Low Income Housing Coalition. Most extremely low-income Florida renters—82%, the second highest in the country—are severely cost-burdened.

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August 28, 2024

BNN Bloomberg Video: Christian Ulbrich sees real estate prices stabilizing globally

The Conversation: A Deep Dive into the Real Estate Sector

In a recent segment on BNN Bloomberg’s Trading Day, Amber Kanwar engaged in an insightful conversation with Christian Ulbrich, Global CEO of Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), about the current state of the real estate market, the impact of potential rate cuts, and the evolving trends in the sector. The discussion provided a comprehensive overview of his firm’s operations, the challenges and opportunities in the real estate market, and how various economic factors are shaping the industry. Comments made about the commercial real estate markets are summarized below. Observations are generally national in scope, and thus may apply little, if at all, to Miami area commercial property markets.

Capital Markets Outlook and the Impact of Rate Cuts

The conversation touched on the potential impact of the anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Ulbrich noted that lower refinancing costs following rate cuts could provide a boost to the real estate market, particularly in capital markets. This could potentially lead to increased activity in transactions, especially in asset classes that are already showing signs of improvement.

Investors are keenly watching the capital markets, and the conversation delved into the outlook for financing and transactions, particularly in the commercial real estate sector. Ulbrich expressed optimism, suggesting that the market may have reached its trough in terms of transaction volumes. He indicated that certain asset classes are beginning to see an uptick in activity, and with potential rate cuts on the horizon, there could be a significant boost to the capital markets.

However, the office sector remains a point of concern, having been one of the hardest-hit segments of the real estate market. Despite the challenges, Ulbrich pointed out that there is still demand for prime office buildings, particularly those that are green-certified. On the other hand, older office buildings are attracting interest from private equity investors who see opportunities for value acquisition, although there remains a gap between seller and buyer expectations.

Challenges of Converting Office Space to Residential

The discussion also touched on the idea of converting underutilized office spaces into residential properties, a concept that has gained traction in light of housing shortages in urban areas. However, Ulbrich was quick to point out the significant challenges associated with such conversions. The structural differences between office and residential buildings, along with regulatory hurdles, make this a costly and complex endeavor. While the idea is appealing, particularly in cities like those in Canada facing housing crises, it is not a straightforward solution.

Conclusion

The conversation between BNN Bloomberg’s Amber Kanwar and JLL’s Christian Ulbrich provided valuable insights into the current state of the real estate market and the factors influencing it. He also discussed topics related to firm, noting how diverse operations and strategic focus on outsourcing services have positioned the company well in a volatile market. The potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could bring further opportunities, particularly in capital markets, although challenges remain, especially in the office property sector. The discussion also highlighted the complexities involved in converting office spaces to residential properties, underscoring the need for innovative solutions to address housing shortages.

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August 28, 2024

Miami Commercial Real Estate News August 21, 2024: Miami International Mall Value Cut by Half; 561-Unit MF Proposed Near North Miami; 641 Foot Edgewater Tower Gets FAA Nod; More…

Ben-Josef family proposes 561-unit rental project near North Miami, amid record South Florida multifamily construction pipeline

The Ben-Josef family, owners of the Sagamore Hotel South Beach, propose a 561-unit apartment building near North Miami. Their plan comes as South Florida is experiencing a multifamily construction boom, putting the tri-county region in line for a record number of new units by year-end. Ben Josef Group Holdings wants to develop the project on a 4-acre vacant site between…

641 Foot Tower Approved By FAA For Edgewater

The Federal Aviation Administration has given approval for the height of a new tower planned to rise in Edgewater. According to the August 19 FAA determination letter, the new tower is permitted to rise 637 feet above ground, or 641 feet above sea level. The letter was sent to Meridian TC Real Estate Group LLC. Edge House, a condo building allowing short term rentals…

Miami-Dade (Including Miami Beach) Overwhelmingly Favors Mass Transit Expansion

Miami-Dade voters are strongly in favor of expanding rapid mass transit in the county, according to the results of a referendum held yesterday. The question posed to voters in yesterday’s primary election read: Does Miami-Dade County need to expand its existing rapid mass transit system? (Rapid mass transit is defined here as elevated Metrorail, passenger rail…

Miami International Mall’s market value plummets to $159M

Simon Property Group’s Miami International Mall is in precipitous condition. The struggling indoor retail center ‘s current market value nosedived to $159 million, compared to a $391 million valuation a decade ago, a recent Morningstar report shows. The 59 percent decline in value is on the heels of Simon securing a one-year forbearance on a $157.4 million commercial mortgage…

Simon-Owned Miami Mall Loses Half Its Value As Lender Negotiations Continue

Simon Property Group’s Miami International Mall was hit with more bad news after its appraisal value was recently slashed in half. A July appraisal valued Miami International Mall at $159M, roughly equal to the value of two CMBS loans tied to the property. Miami International Mall was appraised at $159M in July, down 59% from its $391M valuation in 2013…

Foundation Pour Completed For 521-Foot Tower In Edgewater

A foundation pour was completed over the weekend at the Edgewater site where a 521-foot tower is under construction, according to a social media post by a contractor.   The tower is known as 2600 Biscayne and will span an entire city block. In March, the developers obtained $181M in construction financing. Groundbreaking took place in late April. 2600 Biscayne will rise…

Miami Blue Lagoon Development Site Slated for Auction Following Foreclosure Ruling

A development site in Miami’s Blue Lagoon area, previously approved for apartments and a hotel, is now facing foreclosure and is set to be auctioned due to a $17.9 million lawsuit. Miami-Dade… Judge Thomas J. Rebull granted the foreclosure judgment on August 10 in favor of TIG Romspen US Master Mortgage against 7 at Blue Lagoon LLC and loan guarantor Caroline Weiss.

Lender wins final foreclosure judgment for Caroline Weiss’ Blue Lagoon dev site

Caroline Weiss is on track to lose a waterfront Blue Lagoon development site at the center of a bitter legal fight with her eldest daughter. Miami-Dade Circuit Court Judge Thomas ReBull on Aug. 10 granted final summary judgment for TIG Romspen, a lender that filed a foreclosure lawsuit last year against two Weiss entities that own a 7-acre assemblage on Northwest 7th Street…

University of Miami opens residential village, football center on hold

The University of Miami’s Coral Gables campus is debuting a large residential project that opened this month, and continues to work on future capital projects including a theater arts building to open this fall while delaying its highly publicized football operations center. The Centennial Village, said Jessica Brumley, vice president of facilities, operations, and planning…

PMG, Greybrook Obtain $178M Refinancing for Society Wynwood Mixed-Use Development in Miami

PMG and Greybrook have obtained $178 million for the refinancing of Society Wynwood, a 10-story mixed-use property located at 176 N.W. 25th St. in Miami’s Wynwood Arts District. Eastdil Secured arranged the financing through funds managed by Ares Management and Monarch Alternative Capital on behalf of the borrowers. Randy Barcelo of Stearns Weaver Miller…

PMG, Greybrook Miami Mixed-Use Site Lands $178M Refi

PMG and Greybrook Realty Partners have refinanced the recently completed Society Wynwood property, a 10-story, 318-unit mixed-use development in Miami’s Wynwood Arts District. The $178 million refinancing was provided by funds managed by Ares Management and Monarch Alternative Capital. Eastdil Secured arranged the construction refinancing package. PMG was…

Prologis pays $55M for Verizon subsidiary HQ near Doral, with plans for industrial redevelopment

Prologis bought a Verizon subsidiary’s headquarters near Doral for $54.5 million, with plans for an industrial redevelopment. The San Francisco-based real estate investment trust scooped up the one-story building at 9700 Northwest 112th Avenue in an unincorporated area of Miami-Dade County from TracFone Wireless, according to records and real estate database…

Developer Of 90-Story Dolce&Gabbana Brickell Supertall Pledges $1.5M Towards Transportation

The developer planning a 90-story Dolce&Gabbana supertall condo hotel has signed an agreement that will provide transit and transportation upgrades in Brickell. The Dolce&Gabbana tower is currently going through Miami-Dade’s review process under the Rapid Transit zoning plan. Approval of developments in the zone may be conditioned on public benefits.

Lynd considers $9M capital call to investors for Miami Gardens rental complex

Multifamily investor Lynd is considering asking its investors in a Miami Gardens apartment complex to pony up additional capital, as skyrocketing insurance premiums and other increased expenses hit South Florida properties. The San Antonio, Texas-based firm has put investors in the 234-unit Parc Place Apartments on alert that it may ask them to infuse $9.1 million…

424 Deeds Already Recorded At New 51-Story Downtown Miami ‘Vertical Neighborhood’

Buyers are quickly closing on their units at a newly opened 51-story tower in downtown Miami, according to county records. Closings of condos at the tower began in late June (a single deed was recorded in May). As of this morning, a total of 424 deeds have already hit county records, including 15 recorded yesterday alone. The building includes the Gale Miami Hotel & Residences…

Trinity Cathedral Site Apartment Tower Submitted To FAA At 448 Feet

The proposed heights for an apartment tower at the Trinity Cathedral site have been filed with the FAA. According to the August 14 filing, the tower is planned to rise 446 feet above ground, or 448 feet above sea level. The 42-story building will have 462 residential units and 14,000 square feet of space for the church. A total of 552 parking spaces will also be built as part of the development.

Work Underway At 38-Story Edgewater Hamilton House Apartment Tower Site

Construction work appears to now be underway at the Hamilton House site in Edgewater, a photo by Ryan RC Rea shows. Hamilton House is now planned to rise 38 stories, rather than the 60 stories previously submitted to planners, according to a representative of developer Aimco. The revised plans call for 114 luxury apartments and 7,000 square feet of waterfront restaurant…

Developer plans 75-unit Live Local Act project in Brownsville, amid surge in proposals under affordable housing law

Miami-based Biscayne Companies, led by Kevin Fantes and Alejandro Reyes, wants to develop a seven-story project on the northwest corner of Northwest 27th Avenue and Northwest 54th Street in unincorporated Miami-Dade County, according to Fantes. The development firm scooped up the nearly half-acre vacant lot for $1.5 million, according to the broker.

Walker & Dunlop Arranges $53.6M Construction Financing for Bay Harbor Islands Multifamily Development

Walker & Dunlop has arranged a $53.6 million loan for the construction of Clara Bay Harbor 100th, a multifamily development located at 1145-1163 100th St. in Bay Harbor Islands, roughly 15 miles outside Miami. Upon completion, the property — which is the second phase of a three-phase rental development by Clara Homes — will comprise 45 units. The developer will also use the proceeds…

Clara Homes lands $54M construction loan for Bay Harbor Islands project, amid record South Florida multifamily pipeline

Clara Homes scored a $53.6 million construction loan for its Bay Harbor Islands multifamily project, advancing the development into its next stage. The deal comes as financing for South Florida developments continues to flow, amid a record pipeline of apartments. Miami-based Clara is developing its project with three six-story buildings with a total of 150 units on several…

Doral City Council green-lights Trump Doral condo expansion

Doral City Council members approved the Trump Organization’s proposal to develop up to 1,500 luxury condos on the Trump National Doral Miami property. Mayor Christi Fraga and councilman Rafael Pineyro voted against the rezoning on first reading at a council meeting Wednesday evening. It passed 3-2. An affiliate of Donald Trump’s firm was seeking a zoning…

Galbut family pays off $213M construction loan for downtown Miami tower, amid unit closings

An affiliate of Galbut Family Office paid off the $213.4 million construction for the Gale Hotel & Residences project in downtown Miami. Bank OZK provided the financing for the 51-story, 688-unit mixed-use tower at 601 Northeast First Avenue in September 2021. The developer, Sixth Street Partners, began recording closings in late May, property records show. A spokesperson…

FM Capital Secures $11M Bridge Loan for Office Building in Miami Beach

FM Capital has secured an $11 million bridge loan for the financing of an office building located at 301 Arthur Godfrey Road in Miami Beach. Formerly known as the HSBC Building, the property is now known as the Citizens Bank Building. Noam Temchin of FM Capital originated the interest-only, floating-rate loan through Sheridan Capital on behalf of the undisclosed borrower.

Second Phase Of Quail Roost Station Breaks Ground Along Forthcoming Transit Hub In Miami-Dade County

Atlantic Pacific Companies has broken ground on an affordable housing project for seniors at Quail Roost Station in Perrine. This development will be a hub along Miami-Dade County’s forthcoming electric bus rapid transit system and offer direct access to public transportation along the South Dade TransitWay, making it a crucial part of its transit-oriented community initiatives….

Grant Cardone office building in NW Miami-Dade adds Venture X coworking space

A coworking franchise will soon move into a Northeast Miami-Dade office building owned by real estate investor Grant Cardone. Venture X and a franchiser have secured the second floor of the 11-story 10X Centre at 18851 N.E. 29 Ave. in Aventura, said Barrett Wolf, CEO and founder of Wolf Co Real Estate Brokerage Investments. The 19,127-square-foot office is now being built…

40-Unit ‘Belle Apartments’ Planned for 18234 Homestead Ave in Miami

Belle Development LLC hopes to move forward with the Belle Apartments, an eight-story venture near the future South Dade TransitWay. If approved, the project would offer 40 homes measuring 532 to 1,100 square feet. The average apartment would span 873 square feet, according to the South Florida Business Journal. Communal amenities would include a bike room and lounge.

Construction Progresses on 70-Story Okan Tower at 555 N. Miami Avenue in Downtown Miami

Construction continues to advance on Okan Tower, a 70-story mixed-use building under development at 555 North Miami Avenue in Downtown Miami. Designed by Behar Font & Partners and developed by Okan Group, the 902-foot-tall, 914,124-square-foot structure will include 399 residences, a 316-key hotel, 64,000 square feet of Class A office space, and a range of indoor…

Swire Tells Investors: Demand For Brickell Key Condos Exceeds Expectations

Developer Swire Properties says that demand for condo units in a new two-tower project in Brickell is exceeding expectations. Swire announced plans for The Residences at The Mandarin Oriental, Miami in June 2023, and launched sales in December. “The market response in relation to the sales reservations since December 2023 has exceeded expectations,” the company…

‘Rapid Leasing Velocity’ Reported At New $178M Wynwood Apartment Complex

The developers of the new Society Wynwood apartment complex are reporting strong demand for units, helping to secure a refinance. Developer PMG, and Canadian-based private equity firm Greybrook said they had obtained $178m in refinancing for Society Wynwood. Society Wynwood’s welcomed its first residents in March, and has experienced “rapid leasing velocity” since then.

Construction Permit Issued For Large New Whole Foods Market Next To Midtown Miami

Whole Foods Market has been issued a construction permit for a large new store near Midtown Miami, allowing work to begin. The construction permit was issued this morning (August 19). It was first applied for on January 22. According to the permit, a total of 50,812 square feet will be built out at an estimated cost of $7 million. The new Whole Foods will be located on the ground…

Construction Permit Applied For At $190M Brickell Tower

A construction permit application for a 39-story residential tower one block from Brickell City Centre has been submitted. The filing was submitted to Miami-Dade on August 8. Zoning and construction review are being handled by the county, rather than the city of Miami, under Miami-Dade’s Rapid Transit zoning plan. The estimated value of construction is listed on the permit…

Loews Strikes Deal for $305M Loan to Refinance Miami Hotel

Loews Corporation has struck a deal to secure $305 million to refinance a Miami, Florida hotel. The loan, co-originated by National Association, J. P. Morgan Chase, and Wells Fargo Bank, is interest only, carrying a 10-year fixed rate, as reported by the Commercial Observer, citing Fitch Ratings. The bulk of the loan will be allocated towards refinancing existing debt…

Grant Cardone Bets On South Florida With Aventura Complex Renovations

Grant Cardone is best known for discussing multifamily and residential real estate. However, that doesn’t mean he has stayed out of the office sector. Cardone’s Cardone Capital recently announced the renovations of a building he is calling the 10X Centre, and it’s a window into what Cardone sees as valuable office space right now. Cardone has been bullish on the Florida market…

Lease roundup: Latin Securities opens in downtown Miami, Spanish restaurant picks A&E District for first US outpost

Financial services firm Latin Securities opened an office in downtown Miami. Buenos Aires, Argentina-based Latin Securities, which offers wealth management, securities brokerage and other services, leased 4,000 square feet at Miami Tower at 100 Southeast Second Street, according to its broker. Fabio and Sebastian Faerman of FA Commercial represented the tenant.

Backed by real estate titans, Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava cruises to reelection

Developers and commercial real estate investors are getting another four years of cozying up to Daniella Levine Cava. Miami-Dade County’s first female mayor cruised to a second term in office, nabbing 58 percent of a countywide vote in Tuesday’s August primary election. Although a non-partisan race, Democrat Levine Cava faced six challengers, four of whom are Republicans…

Affiliate of Gables Residential Proposes Community for 250 Racquet Club Road in Weston

The Weston City Commission heard the proposal for Gables Weston on August 19th, where an affiliate of Atlanta-based Gables Residential wanted to have the parcel rezoned from high-rise multi-family to planned development district. Plans called for a community with three housing types: 384 apartments, 80 single-family homes, and 28 townhouses. More specifically…

Chick-Fil-A plans new cold storage center in Weston

Atlanta-based restaurant operator Chick-Fil-A won approval to build a new cold storage warehouse and distribution facility in Weston to replace the one the company bought earlier this year. The Weston City Commission unanimously approved the company’s site plan for a one-story warehouse spanning 157,314 square feet, a standalone vehicle maintenance building with 9,252 sf…

Weston rejects rezoning for Gables Residential’s planned 384-unit apartment project

Gables Residential failed to win a rezoning of the old Bonaventure Resort & Spa site in Weston, 22.5 vacant acres where the Atlanta-based multifamily developer planned to build hundreds of apartments. Gables Residential, led by President and CEO Sue Ansel, paid $50 million for the Bonaventure Resort & Spa in 2022, then demolished the resort to clear the site for the…

13th Floor Breaks Ground on Hallandale Apartments

Developer 13th Floor Investments has broken ground on Parks at Hallandale, a 398-unit multifamily property in Hallandale Beach, Fla. The development will include both market-rate and workforce apartments across several five-story garden style buildings situated on15.5 acres. The property will include 6,500 square feet of ground-floor retail. Miami-based 13th Floor obtained…

Invesca Secures $94M in Additional Financing for Completion of Pixl Apartments in Plantation

Invesca Development Group has secured $94 million in financing to complete the construction of its Pixl apartments in Plantation. The project, located at 4350 West Sunrise Boulevard, will feature 330 apartments. The new funding was necessary to address the maturity of the original construction loan, manage additional costs from hiring a new contractor, and support the project…

Longpoint expands South Florida retail portfolio with $33M Pompano Beach purchase

Longpoint Realty Partners added another grocery store-anchored shopping center to its South Florida retail portfolio. An affiliate of Boston-based Longpoint paid $33.1 million for Palm Aire Marketplace at 299 South Powerline Road in Pompano Beach, records and real estate database Vizzda show. The 143,219-square-foot shopping center is anchored by Presidente…

$33.1M Sale of Palm Aire Marketplace in Pompano Beach Brokered

Colliers has brokered the $33.1 million sale of Palm Aire Marketplace, a shopping center located in the South Florida city of Pompano Beach. Presidente Supermarket and dd’s DISCOUNTS anchor the property, which totals 143,219 square feet. Other tenants at Palm Aire Marketplace include T-Mobile, Chase Bank and McDonald’s. Harry Blyden, Bastian Schauer, Ruben Suarez…

Adler Partners Inks Miami-Area Office Lease Renewal

Boston Proper has renewed its 42,563-square-foot office lease at Adler Real Estate Partners’ office and flex business campus in Boca Raton, Fla. Colliers negotiated the long-term deal on behalf of the tenant and CBRE assisted the landlord. The women’s fashion brand will maintain its headquarters at 1155 Broken Sound Parkway NW, a one-story building totaling 62,729 square feet…

Mixed-Use Property “The Press” in West Palm Beach Acquired for $80 Million, Plans for Major Improvements

Pebb Capital and Sabal Investment Holdings have announced the acquisition of “The Press,” a mixed-use property located at 2751 South Dixie Highway in West Palm Beach, Florida. The transaction, made in an off-market deal with Tricera Capital, includes plans for nearly $80 million in acquisition and repositioning efforts. These plans involve significant capital improvements…

Pebb, Sabal scoop up The Press office-retail complex in West Palm

Pebb Capital and Sabal Investment Holdings bought The Press, an office and retail complex in West Palm Beach. Miami-based Tricera Capital sold the complex at 2751 South Dixie Highway in an off-market deal to Boca Raton-based Pebb and Irvine, California-based Sabal, according to the buyers’ news release. Tricera and a spokesperson for Pebb and Sabal declined to disclose…

Witkoff, Blavatnik plan luxury hotel and private golf club at former Banyan Cay Resort in West Palm

West Palm Beach is getting a new private golf club and a luxury hotel after years of stalled progress at the Banyan Cay Resort site. Witkoff and Len Blavatnik’s Access Industries are splitting the former Banyan Cay Resort into two parts: Dutchman’s Pipe Golf Club, and the Belgrove, a 194-key hotel, the Palm Beach Post reported. The private club is expected to open this fall…

Vanderbilt wants to build a $520M West Palm Beach campus

Vanderbilt University pitched county leaders on a $520 million campus in downtown West Palm Beach. The Nashville-based “Southern Ivy” officially presented its vision for a graduate campus with artificial intelligence, data science and business programs during the Palm Beach County commissioners’ meeting Tuesday, following months of behind-the-scenes talks.

Vanderbilt Is Coming To West Palm Beach To Pitch A New Campus

Vanderbilt University officials will travel from Tennessee to West Palm Beach to meet with city and county officials. A new college campus could follow close behind. The West Palm Beach City Commission and Palm Beach County Commission will consider resolutions next week that will start to pave the way for a 300K SF campus in the heart of the city that could host up to 1,000 students…

CMBS Troubled Loan Tracker: Delinquency Rates Trending Higher Since the Spring, Likely Until 2025

Summary Delinquency rates notched up again in July for both conduit and large loan-single asset-single borrower (LLSASB) CMBS loans, with both segments now at 6.3%. This recent period of rising delinquencies began back in the spring, with conduit and LLSASB delinquency rates rising by 114 basis points (bps) and 166 bps, respectively. Some rise in troubled loans…

Video: KCnomics CEO KC Conway Provides U.S. Economic & Real Estate Outlook

The Discussion: Navigating Commercial Real Estate in a Shifting Economic Landscape The recent conversation between the host of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show and KC Conway, CEO of KCnomics, provided a deep dive into the current state of the commercial real estate market. Their discussion, which was national in scope and thus may apply less or not at all to Miami…

Finding an Attractive View: Bridge lending can help deals make sense in uncertain times

The first half of 2024 was marked by tumultuous shifts, creating challenges for conventional bank lenders. While agency lending from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae never goes away, traditional sources of financing have thinned out. Traditional lenders have grown shy about the overall lending market. Who can blame them with interest rates so high, a mixed economy and the…

‘Extend and pretend’ remains the playbook for troubled lenders

A growing throng of banking and commercial real estate experts are sounding the alarm about the nation’s small and medium-sized banks, which may be on the cusp of another crisis. John Murray, Pacific Investment Management Company’s head of global private commercial real estate, told Bloomberg in June that he expected more regional bank failures in the U.S. because…

Podcast Transcript: FDIC’s Krishna Patel & Kathy Kalser Discuss Risks of Banking

The 2022 Risk Review provides a retrospective summary of conditions in the U.S. economy, financial markets and the banking sector. And continues to cover some of the core risks of areas of credit by which we mean loans, and market, which we mean interest rates, and financial market risks as of year-end in 2021, similar to our previous report.

Moody’s: Mid-Year Retail Property Performance Review

Highlights: As of the second quarter of 2024, our top 80 primary retail markets were evaluated based on their year-to-date (YTD) change in effective revenue/SF. Among our five regions, the Northeastern Region barely clinched the top spot, with effective revenue/SF increasing by 57-bps YTD – behind the Southwestern Region at 56-bps – while the Midwestern Region logged…

Housing and healthcare: An innovative combo

For people without stable housing who are living with challenges such as mental illnesses, chronic health conditions and substance use disorders, navigating a complex network of service providers across a city can be a major hurdle to getting help. At Hobson Place, a permanent supportive housing community in Seattle, help is literally next door. The project, completed…

Southeast Region Apartment Supply Volumes Could be Near a Peak

The Southeast region has been a key spot for investors recently, with annual supply volumes more than doubling over the past five years. However, the region could be approaching a peak for apartment completions. Annual deliveries in the Southeast went from around 20,000 units in the years leading up to the pandemic, to around 50,000 units in the year-ending 2nd quarter…

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August 21, 2024

Video: MSCI Real Assets Chief Economist Jim Costello Discusses U.S. Commercial Real Estate Distress Tracker; Updates, Forecast, & Strategies

The Conversation: Understanding the Current Landscape of Commercial Real Estate Distress; Insights from America’s Commercial Real Estate Show

The commercial real estate market has been under the microscope lately, especially with the specter of distress looming large across various sectors. This topic took center stage in a recent episode of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show featuring Jim Costello, Chief Economist at MSCI Real Assets. The discussion provided critical insights into the state of distressed assets in the commercial real estate sector, exploring the nuances and differences from past downturns, particularly the financial crisis of 2008.

Note that this discussion is national in scope. Miami, at least so far, has seen few signs of stress in commercial real estate that are being experienced in other markets. Thus, many aspects of this conversation don’t apply much, if at all, to the local South Florida markets.

A Different Kind of Downturn

One of the key takeaways from the conversation was the contrast between the current market distress and what was observed during the 2008 financial crisis. Costello emphasized that while distress levels are rising, the pace and nature of this increase are different. Unlike the previous crisis, which saw nearly 20% of the market in distress within a couple of years, today’s market distress sits at a modest 2.5% of total sales. This discrepancy is attributed to the fundamentally different drivers behind the distress.

During the financial crisis, the distress was largely due to overleveraged assets that needed refinancing. However, today’s distress is more structural, driven by changes in demand, especially in sectors like office space. The shift towards remote work and the subsequent reduction in demand for large office spaces have left many buildings vacant, with no clear path to recovery. This kind of “fundamental distress,” as Costello describes it, is harder to address because it isn’t just about restructuring debt; it’s about reimagining the use of these properties.

The Geographic and Sectoral Breakdown

Geographically, the distress is concentrated in large, expensive coastal markets such as Manhattan, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Chicago. These areas have been hit hardest by the shift to remote work, leading to a significant reduction in demand for office space. As a result, these markets are seeing the highest levels of distressed assets, particularly in the office sector.

The office sector, especially in central business districts (CBDs), is experiencing the most significant price corrections. Costello noted that while prices have dropped sharply, particularly for CBD offices in major coastal cities, the rate of decline has started to moderate. Despite this, the future remains uncertain, with much depending on how demand for office space evolves in these markets.

Liquidity and the Role of Lenders

Another critical aspect discussed was the role of liquidity in the current market. Unlike the financial crisis, where liquidity was scarce, there is still considerable “dry powder” available today, meaning that investors have capital ready to deploy. However, the challenge lies in finding opportunities that offer a good return, given the changes in market fundamentals.

Costello also highlighted that the type of lender involved can significantly impact how distress is handled. For instance, Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) lenders, with their more rigid structures, are seeing higher levels of distress compared to local banks, which might have more flexibility in working with borrowers. The “vintage” of loans—when they were issued—also plays a crucial role, with loans from 2022 being particularly problematic due to their origination at peak market conditions with record-low interest rates.

Looking Ahead: A Localized Recovery?

The conversation concluded with a discussion on the potential paths forward. Costello suggested that unlike the last downturn, which saw large institutional players swoop in to capitalize on distressed assets, this recovery might be more localized. Smaller, local investors who understand the intricacies of their markets and can navigate the complexities of local zoning and permitting processes may be better positioned to capitalize on the current distress.

For lenders, this period presents an opportunity to build strong relationships with borrowers and to be selective about where to extend new loans, focusing on assets with solid fundamentals that are less likely to experience severe distress.

Conclusion

The commercial real estate market is facing a unique set of challenges, with distress levels rising but not mirroring the severity of the 2008 financial crisis. As the market continues to navigate these turbulent waters, understanding the fundamental shifts in demand and the role of liquidity and lender behavior will be crucial. Local investors and lenders with deep market knowledge may find opportunities where others see only risk, paving the way for a more nuanced and localized recovery.

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August 21, 2024